Nuggets vs Heat Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Jun 10, 2023

The Denver Nuggets took a commanding 3-1 lead over the Miami Heat on Friday night behind a dominant showing from Aaron Gordon, logging 27 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. With Nikola Jokić in foul trouble and Jamal Murray going just 5-of-17 from the field, he stepped up in a major way.

The Nuggets can now close out the series and earn their first title in franchise history with one more win, and oddsmakers believe it’ll happen on Monday in Denver. But can we really expect the Heat to go down that easily?

Here are my best bets and predictions for Game 5 of the NBA Finals between the Nuggets and Heat.

Nuggets vs Heat Game 5 Odds

NBA odds used for these best bets are current as of Saturday, June 10, at 9 a.m. ET, and were found at bet365 Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: Nuggets (-425) • Heat (+325)
  • Spread: Nuggets -9 (-110) • Heat +9 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 208 (-110) • Under 208 (-110)

Nuggets vs Heat Game 5 Prediction

Nuggets 107, Heat 97

After taking Games 3 and 4 from Miami on the road, Denver will play for a chance to win it all in front of the home crowd in Game 5. As if the Nuggets weren’t already talented enough, the added determination of accomplishing such a feat makes them look virtually unbeatable.

If the Heat had an answer for Jokić, we would’ve seen it already. But even after he turned his ankle early in Game 4 and looked like he’d be compromised as a scorer, he simply turned it up from beyond the arc, going 3-for-7 from three-point range.

On top of their superior talent, the Nuggets have done a fantastic job of protecting the ball in this series, averaging just 10.5 turnovers per game. Moreover, they’ve fully bought in on the defensive end of the floor, limiting the Heat to an average of 97.5 points.

Miami deserves plenty of credit for getting this far — it’s a remarkable achievement — but this is the end of the line. Look for Jokić and co. to seal the deal with a decisive Game 5 victory.

Tap into even more of our 2023 NBA Finals coverage:

Nuggets vs Heat Game 5 Best Bets

Nuggets -9 (-110) • bet365 Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

I’ll admit that I had some pause before locking this one in. Nine points is a pretty large line, even with how well the Nuggets have been playing. However, considering Denver is winning by an average margin of 13 points in the Finals, it’s perfectly reasonable to expect them to cover.

I am slightly concerned about a backdoor cover — the Nuggets have shown a tendency to let their foot off the gas late in fourth quarters — but knowing what’s at stake, I believe we’ll see them play a more complete game from start to finish.

Look for Denver to continue playing with intensity on both ends of the floor and make this your NBA bet of the day.

Under 208 Points (-110) • bet365 Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Unders have hit in all three of the Nuggets’ wins thus far, and that’s not a coincidence, either. Denver has deliberately slowed things down on offense and cranked up the pressure defensively in this series, with Miami’s offensive breakthrough in Game 2 resulting in the only Over.

The Nuggets can win in a variety of ways, but they’ve found one that works consistently against the Heat. Until they find a way to beat it, I have to imagine Denver will continue playing this brand of basketball.

Nuggets vs Heat Game 4

  • Prediction: Nuggets 108, Heat 100
  • Result: Nuggets 108, Heat 95

Nuggets vs Heat Game 3

  • Prediction: Nuggets 117, Heat 112
  • Result: Nuggets 109, Heat 94

Nuggets vs Heat Game 2

  • Prediction: Nuggets 115, Heat 105
  • Result: Heat 111, Nuggets 108

Nuggets vs Heat Game 1

  • Prediction: Nuggets 123, Heat 108
  • Result: Nuggets 104, Heat 93

Nuggets vs Heat Series Prediction

Few could have predicted the 2023 NBA Finals matchup. The top-seeded Denver Nuggets representing the Western Conference is hardly a surprise, but the No. 8 Miami Heat coming out of the Eastern Conference to meet them was hardly expected.

Nevertheless, this year’s series is shaping up to be a great one. Denver has made its way to the grand stage with ease, while Miami has knocked off several of the league’s top contenders en route to an unlikely — albeit deserved — appearance.

Now, I’m looking ahead at the series and providing my best bets and predictions for the 2023 NBA Finals between the Nuggets and Heat.

All NBA odds and lines are provided by bet365 Sportsbook and current as of Tuesday, May 30, at 1 p.m. ET.

Nuggets vs Heat Series Odds

To Win Series: Nuggets (-425) • Heat (+325)

The Nuggets have opened as heavy favorites to win their first NBA Finals at (-425). However, if we’ve learned anything from Miami’s run, it’s that we should take extreme caution when overlooking the Heat.

At (+325) odds, there’s a lot of value here on a team that’s already knocked off the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics — both of whom had better regular-season records than Denver.

Nuggets vs Heat Series Prediction

Nuggets Win 4-1

With all due respect to Miami, this team has yet to see an offense as potent and unique as the Nuggets. NBA Finals MVP favorite Nikola Jokić may well be the best player in the NBA today, and he’s a matchup nightmare for any team looking to contain him.

The 28-year-old big man possesses elite ball skills and is capable of carving up opposing defenses almost single-handedly. Whether he’s shooting contested jumpers, banging in the paint, or setting up his teammates with unbelievable precision, he will find a way to beat you.

Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are a stellar duo, but they’ll both have their work cut out for them. Butler may still average 30 points per game, but Adebayo will need to reach new levels on defense if he hopes to contain Jokić.

Denver also comes into this series with a considerable rest advantage, having last played on May 22. The Nuggets’ fresh legs — compounded by the fact that they have arguably the best home-court advantage in the NBA — will give them the lift they need to take this one in five games.

Nuggets vs Heat Series Best Bets

Nuggets -2.5 Games (+130) • bet365 Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

It feels wrong to dismiss the Heat so swiftly considering what they’ve accomplished this postseason, but there are mismatches up and down the board in this series. By backing Denver to cover this 2.5-game spread, we can cash in should it win the Finals in fewer than six games.

Locking in the Nuggets to cover a 1.5-game spread at (-160) is a much safer bet, but the odds reflect that. We’re going for value here, and Denver looks like a strong candidate to wrap this series up relatively quickly, making this my NBA bet of the day.

Nikola Jokić: Most Points in Series (+110) • bet365 Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Jokić has already made history in these playoffs, but I don’t believe he’s done yet. He’s averaged 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists through his first 15 games, and it’s within the realm of possibility that he improves upon all of those numbers in the NBA Finals.

Adebayo is a fantastic defender, but we’ve already seen the Joker make fools of two All-Defensive staples in Rudy Gobert and Anthony Davis this postseason. With that in mind, I’m banking on Jokić to lead the series in scoring.


Garrett Chorpenning

Garrett Chorpenning is the Lead NBA Editor for The Game Day. His previous work includes covering the LA Clippers for Sports Illustrated and FanSided. He graduated from Ball State University in 2021.

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