The Miami Heat bounced back in a big way in Game 5 against the Philadelphia 76ers, securing a 3-2 lead in the series. Despite not having Kyle Lowry available, the Heat came away with a lopsided 35-point victory over the 76ers at home.
With the series headed back to Philadelphia, Miami will look to close out the series in front of a raucous road crowd.
Meanwhile, the 76ers have to defend homecourt if they want to extend the series. Joel Embiid said that he likes the chances of Philadelphia winning Game 6, but his work will be cut out for him with how well Bam Adebayo defended him in Game 5.
With the 76ers having their backs against the wall in a win-or-go-home contest against the Heat, here are my predictions for Game 6.
Heat vs 76ers Game 6 Odds
All NBA gameday odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Wednesday, May 11, at 10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Heat (+115), 76ers (-140)
- Spread: Heat +2.5 (-110), 76ers -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 207.5 (-110) / Under 207.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: 76ers 105, Heat 102.5
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Heat vs 76ers Game 6 Prediction
It was clear from the start of Game 5 that the Heat weren’t going to let Embiid single-handedly beat them. Miami put Adebayo on Embiid for the majority of the contest, and the versatile center was able to limit the MVP runner-up to 17 points, five rebounds, and two assists.
To be fair, Embiid is dealing with an orbital fracture and concussion, so he’s already partially limited in what he can do.
As for the Heat, they’ve gotten consistent production from Jimmy Butler in the last three games. Also, in Game 5, Miami had seven players score in double figures, including Max Strus who had the second-most points for the Heat with 19.
It appears that Miami’s shooting woes may be subsiding, and Embiid is a shell of himself, making me believe that the series is going to end on Thursday night.
Heat vs 76ers Game 6 Score Pick
Heat 108, 76ers 94
I believe we’re going to get a statement game from the Heat on Thursday to close out the series. Miami isn’t an overly exciting team to many, but they are a well-rounded group that will be physical on the defensive end.
Butler realizes that the Heat could use some extra days off before their next series against the Boston Celtics or the Milwaukee Bucks.
Taking that into account, he’s poised for another stellar performance in front of a crowd in Philadelphia that he used to play for. The defense of the Heat will prove to be too much for the 76ers, and I don’t have much confidence in James Harden, Tobias Harris, or Tyrese Maxey to carry Philadelphia in a must-win game.
Heat vs 76ers Game 6 Best Bets
UNDER 207.5 Total Points (-110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
I’ve been burned by taking the Over in this series a couple of times, but I’m admitting defeat and taking the Under in Game 6. These teams play at extremely slow paces, and with Embiid not close to full strength, it’s hard to trust the 76ers to light up the scoreboard against a stingy defense in the Heat.
The total has gone Under in eight of Miami’s last 10 games. As for Philadelphia, they’ve gone Under in seven of their last 10 games. And in the past 10 meetings between the Heat and the 76ers, the Under is 7-3.
Only two games in this series have gone Over 207.5 points, and I’m not expecting Game 6 to be the third, making this our NBA bet of the day.
Heat Moneyline (+115)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Entering Game 6, the Heat are 2.5-point underdogs on the road against the 76ers. Even after Miami cruised to a victory in Game 5, sportsbooks are likely siding with Philadelphia due to being at home and they could expect them to put up a fight in a crucial game.
However, I believe the Heat win outright, which is why I’m taking their moneyline.
- Check out our Heat vs 76ers Game 6 Props for more ways to bet this all-important matchup.
There’s more value to me in taking the moneyline over the spread since I can get the moneyline at plus-odds. Feel free to take the spread if you aren’t confident in Miami getting the job done on the road, but confident in them keeping it close.
For me, though, I envision the Heat winning Game 6 and securing themselves some much-needed rest time before the Eastern Conference Finals.
Heat vs 76ers Game 6 Parlay
Best Same-Game Parlay (+310)
- UNDER 207.5 Total Points
- Heat Moneyline
WAGER: 1 Unit
For our same-game parlay, we’re combining my two favorite bets for Game 6. There’s good value in picking the Heat to win straight up instead of against the spread, and the Under has a great track record in this matchup.
By combining these two bets with BetMGM’s one-game parlay feature, we can get favorable (+310) odds on two picks that seem more likely than not to hit.
PREVIOUSLY: Heat vs 76ers Game 5 Prediction
The Philadelphia 76ers were able to even their second-round series with the Miami Heat by defeating them in Game 4. The 76ers took care of business at home, with the series now headed to Miami for Game 5. The Heat have gotten stellar production from Jimmy Butler in the past two games, only for his teammates to struggle on the offensive end.
While both teams have gotten back marquee players in recent games in Joel Embiid and Kyle Lowry, Embiid has made a massive difference in this series after missing the first two games. Meanwhile, Lowry has failed to find his groove in this series thus far, combining for six points and five turnovers in his first two games back.
Ahead of Tuesday’s crucial showdown, here are my predictions for Game 5 between the Heat and the 76ers.
Heat vs 76ers Game 5 Odds
All NBA gameday odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Monday, May 9, at 10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Heat (-165), 76ers (+140)
- Spread: Heat -3.5 (-110), 76ers +3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 209.5 (-110) / Under 209.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: Heat 106.5, 76ers 103
Heat vs 76ers Game 5 Prediction
With Embiid back in the mix for the 76ers, Philadelphia’s team has looked full of life on both ends of the court. After it was the Danny Green and Tyrese Maxey show in Game 3, James Harden had by far his best performance in the postseason with 31 points, seven rebounds, and nine assists in Game 4.
For the Heat, Butler has been fantastic, totaling 73 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists in the last two games of the series. Despite Butler’s efforts, the rest of Miami’s roster has combined to shoot 40-117 (34.2%) in the last two games. With the series headed back to South Beach, I expect the Heat to fix their shooting woes at home in a crucial game.
Even after Harden finally showed up on the offensive end, it’s hard to expect him to do the same in Game 5. On the other hand, I believe Miami’s offense is going to give plenty of contributions around Butler on Tuesday, helping the Heat secure a massive victory.
Heat vs 76ers Game 5 Score Pick
Heat 111, 76ers 104
It was once again a forgettable shooting night for the Heat in Game 4 for players not named Butler. Butler shot 13-20 from the field while the rest of the team made 25 of their 62 shot attempts. Besides the veteran forward, I’m anticipating a bounce-back performance from multiple members of Miami’s lineup in Game 5.
Embiid hasn’t been ultra-aggressive in his first two games back as the Heat seem content with letting everyone else on the 76ers beat them. Philadelphia has gotten contributions from Tobias Harris, Green, Maxey, and Harden in recent games. Erik Spoelstra will make the necessary adjustments for Tuesday’s matchup, aiding the Heat in earning their third win of the series.
Heat vs 76ers Game 5 Best Bets
Over 209.5 Points (-110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
We got another game that hit the over in Game 4, with both teams combining for 224 points. After having the projected total set at 206.5 entering Game 4, it has now been raised to 209.5 for Game 5. Even though these teams play at slower paces, I’m still expecting the over to be very much in play.
With Embiid back on the floor for the 76ers, I believe the Heat realize that they can take advantage of Philadelphia’s defense when they aren’t able to set up their half-court defense.
Embiid can protect the rim with ease, but when Miami can push the ball in transition, it can give them easier baskets in the paint. I expect the Heat to try to go up-tempo on offense when they have the opportunity, helping us reach the over in Game 5.
Heat Cover -3.5 Spread (-110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
This has become a very competitive series with Embiid returning to the floor for the 76ers. Following two easy wins for Miami to begin the series, Philadelphia has now won two straight to force a Game 6, at the very least. While the 76ers did what they had to do at home, it’s hard to trust a Doc Rivers-led squad in high-pressure games in the postseason.
Also, it’s hard for me to imagine Harden having another 30+ point output in Game 5. The Heat could very well elect to center their attention on Embiid and Harden on Tuesday, forcing the other members of the 76ers to win them the game. As for Miami, Butler has been fantastic, but he’ll finally get some help in Game 5.
Heat vs 76ers Game 5 Parlay
Best Same-Game Parlay (+270)
- Heat Cover -3.5 Spread
- OVER 209.5 Total Points
WAGER: 1 Unit
On the BetMGM app or site, they allow you to place a wager on multiple events from a single game with the one-game parlay feature. For Game 5, you can take the Heat to cover the -3.5 spread while you’ll have to go into the alternate totals to get 209.5. Combining both of those events gets you a bet at +270 odds.
PREVIOUSLY: Heat vs 76ers Game 4 Prediction
The Philadelphia 76ers were finally able to secure a win in their second round series against the Miami Heat in the NBA playoffs. Joel Embiid returned from a two-game absence, and despite him not having a colossal performance, his presence alone helped Philadelphia hold Miami to 79 points in Game 3.
After taking a stand at home in Embiid’s first game in the series, the 76ers will look to avoid a 3-1 deficit in the series by taking care of business at home again on Sunday. While Kyle Lowry also returned for the Heat in Game 3, offense was tough to come by for players not named Jimmy Butler.
Following the defensive-oriented contest in Game 3, see how I envision Game 4 transpiring below.
Heat vs 76ers Game 4 Odds
All NBA gameday odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Saturday, May 7, at 9 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Heat (+105), 76ers (-125)
- Spread: Heat +2.5 (-120), 76ers -2.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: Over 206.5 (-120) / Under 206.5 (+100)
- Implied Score: 76ers 104.5, Heat 102
Heat vs 76ers Game 4 Prediction
Embiid began Friday listed as out, but the All-Star center made enough progress to make his return from a two-game absence due to an orbital fracture. In his return, Embiid produced 18 points and 11 rebounds.
Danny Green and Tyrese Maxey came up big for Philly, combining to shoot 12-of-15 from three-point range and supplying 21 points apiece in the process.
Meanwhile, Butler would make 12 of his 22 shot attempts, finishing as one of only two players on the Heat to score in double-digits. The rest of Miami’s roster would convert only 15 of their 55 shot attempts. Following an abysmal shooting display from the Heat, I don’t expect them to repeat their performance in Game 4.
It’s also hard for me to imagine seeing Green score 20+ points for the 76ers again in a game this series. Taking that into account, I’ll take the Heat to bounce back in Game 4, securing a 3-1 lead in the series while they’ll head back to Miami for Game 5.
Heat vs 76ers Game 4 Score Pick
Heat 108, 76ers 102
Nearly every shot that the Heat took in Game 3 refused to go in, while Green and Maxey simply couldn’t miss from beyond the arc for the 76ers. We got a low-scoring game on Friday.
Even with the Heat forgetting how to make a shot in Game 3, I’m confident they’ll respond well in Game 4 on the road. I expect a closer contest in Game 4, but Miami will find a way to create some separation late in the second half.
I don’t expect Lowry to score zero points again, and the Heat will get more significant contributions from Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo in a pivotal game.
Heat vs 76ers Game 4 Best Bets
OVER 206.5 Total Points (-120)
WAGER: 1 Unit
It was a swing and miss from me predicting the Over to hit in Game 3. The projected total was set at 210.5, and both teams combined to score only 178 points. After the low-scoring affair we got on Friday night, the total has been lowered to 206.5 for Sunday’s showdown.
These teams don’t play at torrid paces, but I’m expecting more scoring in Game 4, especially from the Heat. Butler nearly had half of Miami’s points in Game 3 with 33, and I expect the All-Star forward to be ultra-aggressive again in Game 4.
While six of the last 10 meetings between the Heat and the 76ers have hit the Under, I believe we get a little more scoring in Sunday’s matchup, making this our NBA bet of the day.
Heat Cover +2.5 Spread (-120)
WAGER: 1 Unit
We got both Embiid and Lowry back in this series in Game 3, with the 76ers cruising to a 20-point victory at home. Once again, I don’t expect everyone on the Heat outside of Butler to disappear again in Game 4, making me feel somewhat confident in taking them to cover the spread on Sunday.
As impressive as the 76ers were on Friday night, I don’t see them having another game where they knock down 48.5% of their threes like they did in Game 3.
- Check out our Heat vs 76ers Game 4 Props for more ways to bet this NBA Playoffs matchup.
Miami understands what it takes to compete at a high level in the playoffs, and following a dreadful loss, Erik Spoelstra will have his group prepared to respond in Game 4. The Heat are 11-4-1 against the spread in their last 16 road games and they’ve covered the spread in six of their last 10 meetings with the 76ers.
Heat vs 76ers Game 4 Parlay
Best Same-Game Parlay (+210)
- Heat Cover +2.5 Spread
- OVER 206.5 Total Points
WAGER: 1 Unit
On the BetMGM app or site, you can combine the Heat to cover the +2.5 spread and Over 206.5 points to be scored for a bet with (+210) odds.
To make the same one-game parlay, you’ll need to use the alternate spreads and alternate totals to get the desired numbers as BetMGM has a different spread and total once you begin a one-game parlay.
PREVIOUSLY: Heat vs 76ers Game 3 Prediction
The Miami Heat have jumped out to a 2-0 lead in their second round series against the Philadelphia 76ers in the NBA playoffs. The absence of Joel Embiid has been sorely felt by the 76ers, as they’ve struggled to overcome the formidable defense of the Heat.
It remains to be seen if Embiid is able to return for Game 3 on Friday with the series shifting from Miami to Philadelphia. Seeing that Yahoo’s Chris Haynes revealed that Embiid was able to use his phone for the first time on Wednesday since his orbital injury and concussion, he still has a few hurdles to clear before he returns.
Even if Embiid does get cleared, the Heat have full control of the series after taking care of business at home.
While we patiently wait for Embiid’s status for the next game, here are my predictions for Game 3 on Friday.
Heat vs 76ers Game 3 Odds
All NBA gameday odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Thursday, May 5, at 10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Heat (-110), 76ers (-110)
- Spread: Heat +1.5 (-120), 76ers -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: Over 210.5 (-110) / Under 210.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: 76ers 106, Heat 104.5
Heat vs 76ers Game 3 Prediction
The second game of the series was similar to the firs, as the 76ers were able to keep it somewhat competitive in the first half. However, the Heat would make the necessary adjustments at halftime and pull away in the second to secure another double-digit win.
After shooting 5-for-16 in Game 1, Jimmy Butler was more efficient in Game 2, making eight of his 15 shot attempts.
Miami continues to get consistent contributions from Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, and Victor Oladipo put up 19 points off of the bench in Game 2. Even if Embiid returns, the Heat have the personnel to slow down Philadelphia’s offense, making the members of the roster not named James Harden or Embiid beat them.
The impressive part is that the Heat haven’t had Kyle Lowry available for the first two games of the series, and it appears he’s nearing a return. Regardless of their playing status, I envision Miami escaping with another win in Game 3, putting Philadelphia in a position to potentially get sent home in Game 4.
Heat vs 76ers Game 3 Score Pick
Heat 112, 76ers 106
The 76ers are hoping to have Embiid back in the lineup on Friday night to avoid going down 3-0 in the series. That being said, it seems as if he has a few obstacles to overcome before being cleared. If he’s cleared, then will he be limited? I believe it’s too late for the 76ers to get back into this series, even if Embiid can find a way back onto the court.
The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the league and they have plenty of playoff experience on their roster, while Harden has struggled in the postseason, Tyrese Maxey is getting his first taste of playoff basketball as a significant option, and Tobias Harris is attempting be one of the team’s primary scorers.
All signs point toward Miami getting an opportunity to sweep Philadelphia in the second round.
Heat vs 76ers Game 3 Best Bets
OVER 210.5 Total Points (-110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The first game of the series was another low-scoring affair. Only one of the first five meetings between Miami and Philadelphia (including Game 1), had achieved the Over of 208.5 points that most sportsbooks had in the first two games.
However, there have been 219+ points scored in two of the last three matchups between these two squads.
The total has now gone up to 210.5 points, but there’s reason to believe we can reach the Over in Game 3. With the series headed to Philadelphia, I expect Harden to be more aggressive in getting to the free-throw line, Maxey to continue getting more open shots, and Harris to contribute a decent number of points.
If we can get around 100-105 points from the 76ers, I believe the Heat will score enough to help us get over 210.5 points on Friday night.
There’s no doubt that the potential returns of Embiid and Lowry could improve the chances of the Over hitting as well, making this our NBA bet of the day.
Heat Cover +1.5 Spread (-120)
WAGER: 1 Unit
I understand that the series is making its way to Philadelphia and Embiid could rejoin the starting lineup in Game 3, but nothing suggests that the 76ers have what it takes to defeat the Heat. Miami has looked like they are in cruise control with Embiid sidelined.
Also, if Miami is going to consistently get around 20 points from Herro — and potentially Oladipo — it’s going to be a quick series for Philadelphia.
- Check out our Heat vs 76ers Game 3 Props for more ways to bet this NBA Playoffs series.
The Heat understand that despite jumping out to a 2-0 lead, the outlook of the series can change in an instant if they allow the 76ers to win their home games. While I expect a closer contest than the first two in the series, I believe Miami can easily cover the +1.5 spread.
Heat vs 76ers Game 3 Parlay
Best Same-Game Parlay (+240)
- Heat Cover +1.5 Spread
- OVER 210.5 Total Points
WAGER: 1 Unit
Over on BetMGM, they allow you to combine multiple events from a single game by using the ‘one-game parlay’ tab. If you take the +1.5 spread for the Heat and the Over of 210.5 points, then you can get a bet that has (+240) odds. Feel free to mess around with the alternate spreads and totals if you want a safer parlay.
PREVIOUSLY: Heat vs 76ers Game 2 Predictions
The Miami Heat took care of business in Game 1 of their second-round series versus the Philadelphia 76ers, securing a 106-92 victory. In the absence of Joel Embiid, the 76ers kept it close in the first half, taking a 51-50 lead into halftime following a layup from James Harden. However, Miami would make the necessary adjustments at halftime, outscoring Philadelphia 56-41 in the second half.
While Jimmy Butler returned, it was Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro who led the charge for the Heat. Adebayo and Herro combined for 51 points, 13 rebounds, and 11 assists. All signs point toward Embiid being ruled out for Game 2, as the team is hoping he can return to the court for either Game 3 or Game 4.
With the Heat looking to jump out to a 2-0 lead in the series, can the 76ers respond with a win on the road sans Embiid? Keep reading below to see how I envision Game 2 going in this defensive-minded series.
Heat vs 76ers Game 2 Odds
All NBA gameday odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Tuesday, May 3, at 10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Heat (-450), 76ers (+340)
- Spread: Heat -8.5 (-115), 76ers +8.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 206.5 (-115) / Under 206.5 (-105)
- Implied Score: Heat 106.5, 76ers 98
Heat vs 76ers Game 2 Prediction
It got ugly in the second half for the 76ers in Game 1 as their offense became stagnant. Without Embiid, Doc Rivers has elected to insert DeAndre Jordan into the starting lineup, something that the veteran coach is adamant about doing until Embiid returns. That being said, Jordan didn’t contribute much in Game 1 while Paul Reed gave the team some energy off of the bench.
Harden had another woeful outing in the playoffs with only 16 points on 5-13 shooting, nine rebounds, five assists, and five turnovers. Meanwhile, I don’t expect Butler to shoot 5-16 again in Game 2, so there is room for the Heat to be even better in this series. Until Embiid is able to return for the 76ers, I don’t see them having much of a chance to steal a game against the Heat.
Heat vs 76ers Game 2 Score Pick
Heat 109, 76ers 94
If Harden isn’t putting up 25-30 points, it’s hard to see where the 76ers are going to get enough scoring to beat the Heat. Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are capable scorers, but if Philadelphia wants any chance of getting a win in one of the first two games, they’ll need Harden to have a masterful performance.
Once again, I expect Butler to have a bounce-back game in Game 2, giving Miami even more firepower on the offensive end. Amid the absence of Embiid, the Heat can focus their attention on Harden, forcing the other members of the 76ers to beat them. Regardless of whether or not Kyle Lowry returns in Game 2, Miami could cruise to another double-digit victory on Wednesday.
Heat vs 76ers Game 2 Best Bets
UNDER 206.5 Total Points (-105)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The sportsbooks are tempting us to take the Over in Game 2, moving it down from 208.5 points to 206.5 points. There were only 198 points scored between these two squads in Game 1, which is why they lowered the projected total for Game 2. Even with it being a low projected total, I’ll be siding with the Under again.
Throughout their five meetings this season (including the playoffs), the Heat and the 76ers combined for over 206.5 points just twice. Both teams play at extremely slow paces, so points are going to be tough to come by in this series.
Bet the Under for your NBA bet of the day.
Heat: Cover -8.5 Spread (-115)
WAGER: 1 Unit
While the sportsbooks lowered the projected total for Game 2, they have kept the spread the same. Miami enters as 8.5-point favorites in Game 2, and I believe they can easily cover for the second straight game. Butler should be more efficient in Game 2, Lowry could potentially return, and Herro and Adebayo were lights out in Game 1.
- Check out our Heat vs 76ers Game 2 Props for more coverage of this NBA Playoffs series.
For the 76ers, it’s hard to imagine Harris being able to score nearly 30 points in every game of this series. Relying on a second-year guard in Maxey to be one of your key contributors could prove to be a tough endeavor against a physical team like the Heat. Some people may expect more of a fight from Philadelphia in Game 2, but I see another easy win for Miami.
Heat vs 76ers Game 2 Parlay
Best Same-Game Parlay (+240)
- Heat: Cover -8.5 Spread
- UNDER 206.5 Total Points
WAGER: 1 Unit
If you’re someone that likes to combine your bets from a single game into a parlay, BetMGM allows you to choose multiple events from a single game to occur. Considering that I like the Under of 206.5 and the Heat to cover the spread, I combined both for a bet with (+240) odds.
PREVIOUSLY: Heat vs 76ers Game 1 Prediction
The stage is set for the Miami Heat to square off with the Philadelphia 76ers in the second round of the NBA playoffs. The Heat took down the Atlanta Hawks in five games in the first round, while the 76ers eliminated the Toronto Raptors in six games to advance.
Both teams are dealing with injuries to key players, but the most notable one is Joel Embiid. Embiid suffered an orbital fracture and a mild concussion in Game 6 versus the Raptors to go along with the torn ligament in his thumb.
The All-Star center is out indefinitely and Doc Rivers shared that the 76ers will use a committee approach at the center position until Embiid returns.
Ahead of Game 1 on Monday night, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the first game of the series at FTX Arena in Miami.
Heat vs 76ers Game 1 Odds
All NBA gameday odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Sunday, May 1, at 2:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Heat (-300), 76ers (+240)
- Spread: Heat -7.5 (-110), 76ers +7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 208.5 (-115) / Under 208.5 (-105)
- Implied Score: Heat 108, 76ers 100.5
Heat vs 76ers Game 1 Prediction
While the 76ers are dealing with an injury to Embiid, the Heat have injuries to Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, P.J. Tucker, and Caleb Martin. Of the names listed above, Miami seems the least confident in Lowry suiting up in Game 1, so we could see the veteran point guard miss his third consecutive game in the postseason.
The good news for the Heat is that Butler seems ready to rejoin the starting lineup after missing Game 5 against the Hawks. With Miami having most of their rotation intact, I believe they’ll come away with a fairly easy win in Game 1, especially with Embiid unable to play.
It’s tough to trust James Harden to lead a team in the playoffs at this point in his career, and the Heat are likely going to focus on getting the ball out of his hands. That means it will come down to Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, and the other members of the 76ers to defeat Miami’s daunting defense, and I don’t see that happening.
Heat vs 76ers Game 1 Score Pick
Heat 103, 76ers 93
I don’t expect many of the matchups between the Heat and the 76ers to be high-scoring in this second-round series.
Miami plays at the second-slowest pace in the NBA, while Philadelphia is tied for the third-slowest pace in the league. Also, with Embiid out for the 76ers, I expect the Heat to slow the game down and force Philadelphia to try to succeed with their half-court offense.
In the four meetings between these two squads during the regular season, two of them ended with fewer than 200 points scored. The Heat will push the ball in certain moments, but for the most part, they are at their best when they slow the game down and run their half-court offense.
Given Embiid’s status, Miami should have no issues slowing down Harden, Maxey, and Harris.
Heat vs 76ers Game 1 Best Bets
UNDER 208.5 Points (-105)
WAGER: 1 Unit
I understand that people love to see plenty of scoring, but don’t expect much of it in this series. Once again, both these teams prefer to play at slower paces. During the regular season, in the four games these two teams met, only one of them had more than 207 points scored.
The injury to Embiid doesn’t help Philadelphia’s case to score points as having Embiid gives them a premier scorer that averaged a league-high 30.6 points per game in the regular season. While Harden, Maxey, and Harris have had their moments in the playoffs thus far, Miami’s defense tends to be an issue for teams.
The total has gone Under in each of the last five games for the Heat. On top of that, the Under has hit in four of the last five games between the Heat and the 76ers.
Bet the Under for your NBA bet of the day.
Heat Cover -7.5 Spread (-110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The 76ers have already revealed that Embiid will be out indefinitely with an orbital fracture and a concussion, but he has opted not to get surgery. That being said, Embiid’s absence is massive for a Philadelphia team that relies on his presence on both ends of the floor.
Meanwhile, the Heat were able to defeat the Hawks in Game 5 even with Lowry and Butler sidelined, showing that they can find ways to win games. But with Butler expected to return on Monday, Miami has a sizeable advantage over Philadelphia in Game 1.
The Heat are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games and they’ve covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games playing as the favorite. For the 76ers, they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games, but they’ve failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight road games.
Heat vs 76ers Game 1 Parlay
Best Same-Game Parlay (+250)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Over at BetMGM, you can create a one-game parlay, which allows you to bet on multiple events within a single game. Since I’m expecting a low-scoring contest and the Heat to cruise to an easy victory at home, you can combine the Under of 208.5 points and the spread of -7.5 in favor of Miami for a bet that has +250 odds.
For a safer parlay, you can mess around with the alternate spreads and totals.
PREVIOUSLY: Heat vs 76ers Series Prediction
The second round of the NBA playoffs is set to begin, and in the Eastern Conference, the Miami Heat will host the Philadelphia 76ers in the best-of-seven series. The Heat, who were the No. 1 seed in the East entering the postseason, made easy work of the Atlanta Hawks in the first round, defeating them in five games.
Meanwhile, the 76ers needed six games to put away the Toronto Raptors in the first round, despite jumping out to a 3-0 lead in the series. Injuries caught up to the Raptors, helping the 76ers advance to the next round.
However, Philadelphia is now dealing with a major injury of its own: Joel Embiid reportedly suffered an orbital fracture and mild concussion in Game 6 against Toronto. Embiid is being listed as “out indefinitely," which is the reason why Miami is considered the massive favorite entering the series.
Can the 76ers overcome Embiid’s injury and upset the Heat? Only time will tell, but I’ll be discussing how I see this series playing out below.
Heat vs 76ers Odds
All NBA playoff odds are provided by BetRivers Sportsbook and current as of Saturday, April 30, at 11:30 p.m. ET.
- Series Winner: Miami Heat (-400), Philadelphia 76ers (+300)
Heat vs 76ers Series Prediction
During the regular season, the Heat and the 76ers met four times, with both teams splitting the season series. While Philadelphia is dealing with an injury to Embiid, it’s not like Miami is 100 percent healthy either. Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, Tyler Herro, and P.J. Tucker all missed Friday’s practice due to injuries or illness.
That being said, I’d be surprised if we don’t see most of the guys listed above play on Monday. Also, besides Embiid’s recent injuries, he’s playing through a torn ligament in his thumb.
It remains to be seen if Embiid will need to undergo surgery on his eye, and how long he’ll be sidelined for, but it’s a massive blow to a team that can’t afford to lose their All-Star center.
Even with Embiid, I would have picked the Heat to win the series. Miami plays lockdown defense, as evidenced by them holding Trae Young to a mere 15.4 points per game in the first round.
It’s tough to trust James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris to hold down the fort until Embiid returns. Not to mention if he doesn’t return at all. If Embiid is inactive for the entire series against the Heat, it could be a rather quick one.
Heat vs 76ers Series Pick
Heat in 5 Games
The injury to Embiid looms large for the 76ers entering the second round of the playoffs. Embiid suffered a similar injury a few years ago, which required him to undergo surgery, and he was sidelined for three weeks.
Until Embiid returns, the 76ers will be forced to go with a center rotation that includes Paul Reed, DeAndre Jordan, and Paul Millsap.
Miami should be able to easily take advantage of Philadelphia’s front court in this series with Bam Adebayo having a clear edge in the size and skill departments. I expect Butler and Lowry to play in this series, making the Heat a team that is tough to score against when they are able to switch with ease on the defensive end.
While we await the timetable for Embiid, I think the 76ers get one win at home and are sent packing after five games versus the Heat.
Heat vs 76ers Best Bets
Heat -2.5 Game Series Spread (+110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Seeing that I have the Heat winning the series 4-1, why not wager a little on them to win the series by at least three games? The Embiid ailment drastically shifted the outlook of this series, but I believe Miami would have cruised through this series regardless.
The Heat are the No. 1 seed for a reason, and with Embiid sidelined indefinitely, the 76ers may run a lot more isolations, which would play right into the hands of the Heat. Harden has become tough to trust in the postseason over the years, while Maxey is experiencing his first playoffs as a starter.
Miami has a veteran-led team that has championship experience. When it comes to the coaching matchup, Erik Spoelstra has a massive advantage over Doc Rivers, especially if the games are close late in the fourth quarter.