Bucks vs Heat Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Apr 25, 2023

The Miami Heat’s huge Game 4 victory has officially given them better odds than the Bucks to advance past this series. Jimmy Butler’s monstrous 56-point performance solidified his spot among Heat greats while leading his squad to a 3-1 lead over Milwaukee.

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s triple-double was not enough to hold off a relentless Miami run in the fourth quarter. As a result, the Bucks now stand on the brink of elimination.

Can Miami complete the upset? Let’s take a look at my Bucks vs Heat predictions and best bets for Game 5.

Bucks vs Heat Game 5 Odds

NBA odds used for these best bets are current as of Tuesday, April 25, at 1:30 p.m. ET and were found at DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: Bucks (-610) • Heat (+460)
  • Spread: Bucks -11 (-110) • Heat +11 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 219.5 (-110) • Under 219.5 (-110)

Bucks vs Heat Game 5 Prediction

Bucks 116, Heat 110

They define insanity as doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Picking the Bucks for the fifth-straight game should probably classify me as insane.

However, oddsmakers have installed the Bucks as heavy favorites for Wednesday night’s matchup, too. Milwaukee has been a much stronger team at home this season and will have the luxury of a packed Fiserv Forum to try and help stave off elimination.

Head coach Mike Budenholzer also has the luxury of having arguably the best player in the NBA back in the lineup after missing Games 2 and 3.

Bucks vs Heat Game 5 Best Bets

Heat +11 (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1.5 Units

It’s not often that you see the team up 3-1 as 11-point underdogs. However, as things currently stand, that’s what Miami is.

While I am picking the Bucks to win this game, winning by such a large margin after what we’ve seen in this series seems borderline absurd.

The Heat’s 120.9 offensive rating in the playoffs makes them the highest of all 16 teams. While the Bucks will be mostly healthy for Game 5, they have shown no signs of being able to stop the Heat’s offense four games in, which is why this is my NBA bet of the day.

Over 219.5 Points (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 2 Units

This series has been relatively high scoring, with Milwaukee being the only team to score 114 points or less in a game.

While I have predicted Miami’s shooting number to come down to Earth, that has not been the case after the first four games. It is important to note that Erik Spoelstra’s squad averaged 134 points in the first two games in Milwaukee.

On the other side, the Bucks had their best shooting night of the series in Game 2’s victory. The home crowd should inject energy into their role players, who have shot below their regular season averages by a considerable margin when factoring in sample size.

Bucks vs Heat Game 4

  • Prediction: Bucks 114, Heat 110
  • Result: Heat 119, Bucks 114

Bucks vs Heat Game 3

  • Prediction: Bucks 120, Heat 113
  • Result: Heat 121, Bucks 99

Bucks vs Heat Game 2

  • Prediction: Bucks 110, Heat 105
  • Result: Bucks 138, Heat 122

Bucks vs Heat Game 1

  • Prediction: Bucks 117, Heat 101
  • Result: Heat 130, Bucks 117

Bucks vs Heat Series Preview

The Miami Heat’s valiant comeback effort against the Chicago Bulls on Friday awarded Erik Spoelstra’s squad the eighth seed.

They will now be rewarded with a seven-game series against the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks. The two squads will now face off in the postseason for the third time in the last four years.

With the stage set, here are my Bucks vs Heat playoff bets.

Bucks vs Heat Series Odds

To Win Series: Bucks (-1000) • Heat (+650)

NBA odds used for these best bets are current as of Saturday, April 15, at 3:00 p.m. ET and were found at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Milwaukee enters its first playoff series as heavy favorites, and rightfully so. The Giannis Antetokounmpo-led squad was objectively the best team in the league, sporting a 58-24 record during the regular season.

Against Miami, however, the Bucks split the season series 2-2. Despite the deadlock in games played this year, Milwaukee is surely a level above what the Heat have been this season.

Bucks vs Heat Series Prediction

Bucks Win 4-1

When looking at the playoff landscape, Miami is arguably one of the most inconsistent teams remaining.

Jimmy Butler and Co. finished just six games over .500, with a -0.5 net rating. They finished the regular season with the 25th-ranked offensive rating, 112.3, the worst of any team in the playoffs.

Despite the Bucks sweeping Miami during their last playoff series in 2021, some hot shooting from the Heat can come at any given time, and steal one game in this series.

On the other hand, the Bucks finished within the top five in both net and defensive ratings. Apart from their dominance in advanced statistics, their all-star tandem of Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday finished ninth amongst all duos with a combined 50.4 PPG.

When you look at the rest of the squad, head coach Mike Budenholzer will have his choice of several complimentary pieces that can have a big impact on any given night. It will come as no surprise if Milwaukee can finish this series in just four games.

Bucks vs Heat Series Best Bets

Bucks Win 4-1 (+205) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 unit

Based on the current odds in this NBA pick of the day, it is widely believed that the Heat will pull one game out in this series. While there isn’t concrete evidence that will back this claim up, Miami’s Eastern Conference Championship run just last season showed that despite a lack of talent on the roster, they often give themselves a chance to win.

It should be noted that in Miami’s two wins against the Bucks this season, Antetokounmpo did not play. The Bucks dominated the Heat during the games that featured the former MVP and could sweep the mediocre Miami squad.

Series Total Games: Under 5.5 (-155) • DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 3 Units

Taking the Under on the total games for the series is one of the safest bets when looking at this first-round matchup.

The Under on total games covers both a sweep and one win from Miami – the two likeliest scenarios for this series, according to DraftKings’ odds.

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