The 2022 Formula 1 season has been exciting through the first six races, and we have our first title change of the season after Max Verstappen‘s victory at the Spanish Grand Prix.
Charles Leclerc was the points leader heading into Spain, and it looked like he would continue to hold that lead as he was in front of the pack for most of the Spanish Grand Prix. Then, however, a car issue forced him to retire, opening up the race for Verstappen to take.
Verstappen has been one of the most dominant drivers on the grid. In his last 12 race finishes, he’s either finished P1 or P2 and has won the previous three races.
This year, the only other consistent driver has been George Russell, who is the only driver to finish in the top five in every race this year. Russell has been outperforming teammate and 7-time World Champion Lewis Hamilton, who sits two places behind him in the standings.
For the seventh race of the year, we head to the world-famous Circuit de Monaco this Sunday, May 29th, for the Monaco Grand Prix. Verstappen, Hamilton, Daniel Ricciardo, and Sebastian Vettel are the last four drivers to win on this track.
Will Verstappen continue his winning streak, or will Leclerc break the Monaco curse and win on his home course?
Here are our Monaco Grand Prix predictions and best bets.
Monaco Grand Prix Winner Odds
F1 odds and lines for the Monaco Grand Prix are current as of Tuesday, May 24, at 11 a.m. ET, provided courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.
- Charles Leclerc (+100)
- Max Verstappen (+125)
- Carlos Sainz (+1200)
- George Russell (+1600)
- Lewis Hamilton (+1600)
- Sergio Pérez (+1600)
- Valtteri Bottas (+6600)
- Lando Norris (+10000)
- Kevin Magnussen (+30000)
- Fernando Alonso (+30000)
- Daniel Ricciardo (+50000)
- Esteban Ocon (+50000)
- Mick Schumacher (+50000)
- Pierre Gasly (+50000)
- Yuki Tsunoda (+50000)
- Sebastian Vettel (+100000)
- Lance Stroll (+100000)
- Guanyu Zhou (+100000)
- Alexander Albon (+200000)
- Nicholas Latifi (+300000)
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Monaco Grand Prix Prediction
Last year was a battle between Red Bull and Mercedes, with Ferrari trailing behind in third. This year has been a battle between Red Bull and Ferrari, with Mercedes trailing behind in third. Ferrari has been dominant this year, but Red Bull has capitalized on their bad luck to take the lead.
In every race that Verstappen has finished this season, he has won the race. Leclerc won the two races he did not finish. This season has been a two-horse race with each driver’s respective teammates right behind them in dominating the grid.
Monaco is the home race of Leclerc, but the Monégasque driver has had a string of bad luck on the course. In 2021, Leclerc finished with pole position but crashed at the end of qualifying and was unable to start the race. In 2019 and 2018, Leclerc was forced to retire due to damage to his car during the race.
This race is important for Ferrari, who has fallen behind in the standings after giving up a commanding lead. While Leclerc has had bad luck at Monaco, Carlos Sainz has had bad luck all season. Sainz retired in back-to-back races and has made mental mistakes, giving up his position and losing spots on the grid.
Currently in the standings, Verstappen leads Leclerc by six points, and Red Bull leads Ferrari by 26 points. Both teams have been dominant and have proven that no other team can truly keep up with them, though Mercedes was great at the Spanish Grand Prix.
Coming home to Monaco, this is a must-win race for Leclerc. The last race was wrapped up in a bow for him, but an issue outside of his control forced him to retire. If he wins at home and Verstappen takes second, Leclerc will take a 1-point lead in the championship.
Each race this season has been Leclerc’s to win, and at Monaco in 2022, Leclerc will break the curse and win for the first time at home.
Monaco Grand Prix Winner Pick: Charles Leclerc
Monaco Grand Prix Favorites
Charles Leclerc (+100)
It’s clear that Ferrari has the best car on the grid this season. They’ve shown strong pace and have outperformed their adversaries in Red Bull and Mercedes. However, their opponents have capitalized on their mistakes.
Leclerc needs to run a similar race as he did in Spain. He jumped out to an early lead and never looked back, as he kept extending the lead as the race went on. If not for a car issue ending his race early, it would’ve been his third victory of the year.
Watch for Leclerc to come out determined in this race, especially racing in front of his home crowd.
Max Verstappen (+125)
While Ferrari has been the best car on the grid this season, Verstappen has been the best driver on the grid this season. It’s hard to bet against him with how well he’s raced this season.
Verstappen’s dominance in the sport over the past year and a half is one similar to Hamilton. Verstappen is a gifted driver with a lot of talent and, in a strong Red Bull car, is a favorite to win every race.
Monaco Grand Prix Prop Bets
Charles Leclerc Fastest Qualifier (-110)
It’s no surprise Leclerc is the favorite to finish on pole position in Monaco. Before he crashed during last year’s qualifier, Leclerc secured pole position.
Leclerc has been on pole in four of six races this season, including the last two races. He’s getting everything he can out of the Ferrari, and it’s benefiting him by making him the fastest driver on the grid. He’ll look to do the same in Monaco.
Charles Leclerc Fastest Lap (+150)
As I mentioned numerous times, the Ferrari has been the fastest car on the grid this season, as Leclerc has had the fastest lap in three races.
Whoever finishes on the pole will most likely win the race, as the Circuit de Monaco is a tight fit, and it’ll be hard to overtake. And if Leclerc gets pole position, he’ll have plenty of room to operate, which means plenty of room to fly and get the fastest lap.
George Russell Podium Finish (+225)
Since joining Mercedes this year, Russell has been driving masterfully. He’s the only driver on the grid to finish in the top five in 2022, which doesn’t look to change in Monaco.
Mercedes hasn’t had the ideal start to the season, but Russell has been able to get everything out of the car, having experience driving a struggling car with Williams. However, Mercedes had an incredible showing in Spain after some modifications to the car.
With the changes to the car and how Russell has been performing this season, another podium is within reach for him.
Mick Schumacher Points Finish (+160)
Monaco is the race Mick Schumacher will get his first points as an F1 driver. The Haas car is much improved in 2022, as seen with how Kevin Magnussen has been driving it, so Schumacher should be able to get in the points.
There have been some close calls, but Schumacher has made mistakes in his second year. He finished 11th in the first race of the year, and he was set to get points in Miami, but he crashed into Vettel, bumping him out of the top 10.
In Spain, Schumacher had his first appearance in Q3 but fell behind in the race to finish 14th. Schumacher has been driving well and will get his first points in Monaco.