Open Championship Predictions & Best Bets 2022 | Golf Odds & Majors Betting Picks

Posted: Jul 13, 2022Last updated: Jul 13, 2022

The 150th Open Championship returns to the home of golf this week as the Old Course at St. Andrews will provide a stunning backdrop for what should be a fascinating spectacle.

In many ways, having the final major of 2022 at the home of golf seems ironically fitting after the events that have unfolded in recent months, weeks, and days. However, if we have learned one thing from the PGA Tour-LIV Golf debacle, which has recently morphed into an ongoing legal battle, it is that professional golfers are not united under one roof.

Furthermore, while that will likely continue to be a significant talking point, other exciting storylines will hold our attention. Tiger Woods will make his first competitive appearance since the PGA Championship at a course he knows well, having won the Claret Jug at St. Andrews in 2000 and 2005.

Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, and Matt Fitzpatrick will look to add a second major to their trophy case in 2022, while Collin Morikawa will try to defend his 2021 victory at Royal St. George’s.

With all the top players in the world to choose from, let us dig into the odds and see if we can find some winners.

Open Championship Winner Odds 2022

Open Championship winner odds are current as of Tuesday, July 12, at 10 a.m. ET and courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.

  • Rory McIlroy  (+1000)
  • Xander Schauffele (+1400)
  • Jon Rahm (+1800)
  • Scottie Scheffler (+1800)
  • Matt Fitzpatrick (+1800)
  • Jordan Spieth (+1800)
  • Justin Thomas (+2200)
  • Shane Lowry (+2200)
  • Cameron Smith (+2500)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+2500)
  • Collin Morikawa (+2800)
  • Will Zalatoris (+2800)

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Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our best Open Championship tipster picks.


Open Championship Field

The Open Championship features a full field of 156 players.

Golfers can qualify for the Open via various avenues. Still, generally, the top players in the Official World Golf Rankings — regardless of tour affiliation — will participate after the R&A granted access to LIV Golf members.

The majors are now the only events where we’ll see the likes of Rory McIlroyJordan Spieth, and Will Zalatoris teeing it up with Bryson DeChambeauDustin Johnson, and Phil Mickelson, so we should enjoy it while we can.

Deep and talented fields like this also provide the best betting value as we can get access to gifted players further down the board.

Open Championship Weather

As of Tuesday morning, the weather for this week at St. Andrews seems relatively calm.

Temperatures will range from the mid-50s to the high-60s, and there could be light rain in the forecast Friday. However, that will not affect players as much as the potential of high wind gusts, which we saw wreak havoc at times during last week’s Scottish Open.

Since St. Andrews is a coastal links course, it generally is susceptible to lots of wind. While the forecast expects the breeze to lay low, that can change at any time and create a wave advantage for golfers already off the course.

You’ll definitely want to keep tabs on the forecast up until players tee off on Thursday morning.

Open Championship Winner Prediction

Jon Rahm (+1800) at BetMGM Sportsbook

There is no denying Jon Rahm is one of the best players in the game, but he is flying a bit under the radar at the moment.

The Spaniard broke through last summer by winning his first major at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines but has just one victory since, claiming the 2022 Mexico Open. Rahm is one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet and has a strong track record overseas, winning seven times on the DP World Tour  — including two at the Irish Open — and finishing 11th or better in each of the last two Open Championships.

His 55th place finish at the Scottish Open — where he shot a 2-under 68 on Thursday to put himself inside the top 20 — was a bit of a disappointment, but it has also dropped his odds by a handful of points. It’s rare to see Rahm float as deep as 18-1, so there’s some intrinsic value here.

Open Championship Best Bets

Tony Finau (+4000) at BetMGM

To my surprise, the player that ranked at the top of my model for this week was none other than Tony Finau.

Finau isn’t exactly a serial winner, but he has strung a few excellent results together this summer. He posted back-to-back top-five finishes before missing the cut at the U.S. Open and then finished 13th at the Travelers.

His Open Championship track record is pretty solid, having come inside the top 20 in four of his last five starts. He is probably a better top 10 or top 20 bet, but these odds are juicy enough to tempt me.

Matt Fitzpatrick Top-10 Finish (+200) at Caesars Sportsbook

The 2022 U.S. Open champion is playing the best golf of his career and is showing no signs of slowing down.

His sixth-place finish at the Scottish Open last week was the ninth time he had finished in the top 10 this season, tied for the most this season on the PGA Tour.

The Englishman’s improved driving distance will help his cause at St. Andrews, and if the wind picks up over the course of the week, he’s certainly capable of grinding out a good result in tough conditions.

Dustin Johnson Top-20 Finish (+150) at Caesars

I liked a similar bet on Dustin Johnson at the U.S. Open because I felt that players that moved to LIV Golf were undervalued in the market, due to either disdain from bettors or a perceived lack of competition.

Johnson didn’t pay out that week, but he was certainly the best LIV golfer at Brookline. He’s posted back-to-back top 10 finishes in the last two LIV events and finished 13th at the JP McManus Pro-Am in Ireland early last week.

DJ has a decent record at the Open Championship, having finished in the top 20 five times since 2010. He’s in good form, so this seems plenty possible.

Tiger Woods to Make the Cut (-135) at BetMGM

This was my biggest bet at the Masters in April and Tiger paid us out by battling back from a slow start on Friday to make the weekend. Even more impressive was his made cut at the PGA Championship at Southern Hills, which was a way worse course setup for his body and game at this stage of his career.

St. Andrews, on the other hand, should be a relative walk in the park. It’s flat, distance won’t play much of a factor, and like Augusta, Tiger knows the course well. Based on the amount of practice he’s been getting in, his body seems to be in a better place than it was in May.

Like I said in April, if he didn’t think he could compete, he wouldn’t be here. He skipped the U.S. Open to get ready for this. Expect to see the Big Cat on the weekend.

Open Championship Course Tips

The Old Course (St. Andrews, Scotland)

  • Par 72 (7,297 yards)
  • The Old Course has hosted the Open Championship 29 times, so we generally know what we’re getting here. The list of past champions include many of the game’s all-time greats, including Sam Snead, Jack Nicklaus (twice), Seve BallesterosNick FaldoJohn Daly, and of course, Tiger. The most recent champion in 2015 was Zach Johnson, who defeated Marc Leishman and 2010 champion Louis Oosthuizen in a playoff. The best players in the game generally shine here.
  • Want to get your hands on the Claret Jug at the end of the weekend? Avoid the pot bunkers. St. Andrews is littered with bunkers — there are 112 in all — that protect the fairways and greens. These traps are generally smaller but have exceptionally high lips to navigate. Even the best players are likely to find them at some point (unless you were Tiger Woods in 2000), but having the scrambling ability to avoid big numbers from sandy situations is critical.
  • The other preeminent features of St. Andrews are the constantly undulating fairways, which create awkward lies and blind approaches for players, and the massive green complexes that often are shared by multiple holes. Only four holes at St. Andrews have their own individual greens, while many holes also often share a fairway.

Open Championship Event Details

  • Dates: Thursday, July 14 - Sunday, July 17, 2022
  • Course: The Old Course (St. Andrews, Scotland)
  • Course Dimensions: Par 72 (7,297 yards)
  • 2021 Open Championship Winner: Collin Morikawa
  • How to Watch: NBC/Golf Channel

Author

John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the last two men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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