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Open Championship Predictions & Best Bets 2024

Sam WagmanSports Content Editor
@swagman95
Last Updated: Jul 19, 2023

Fresh off of an exciting week of links golf at the Genesis Scottish Open, held at the Renaissance Club, the stage has been set for the final major of the 2022-23 PGA Tour season: The Open Championship, held this year at Royal Liverpool Golf Club in Hoylake, England. Golf’s oldest major holds a special prestige in this part of the world, as it is where the sport of golf began and this tournament has been held for over 150 years.

Speaking of the Scottish Open, Rory McIlroy has to be feeling great right now, as he took home the title by virtue of a birdie on the 72nd hole of the week. That should propel him right into this week, as he returns to the site of his last major championship victory, the 2014 Open Championship.

McIlroy isn’t the only favorite this week though, as the other two members of golf’s Big Three, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, are ready and waiting to try and snag their first Open Championship title.

There are a ton of bets to get into this week, so let’s dive right into it.

Open Championship Winner Odds 2023

Open Championship winner odds are current as of Tuesday, July 18, at 10 a.m. ET and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Rory McIlroy (+700)
  • Scottie Scheffler (+700)
  • Jon Rahm (+1300)
  • Cameron Smith (+1600)
  • Brooks Koepka (+1800)
  • Xander Schauffele (+2200)
  • Viktor Hovland (+2200)
  • Tyrrell Hatton (+2200)
  • Rickie Fowler (+2200)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
  • Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)

To check out the rest of the field’s odds, check out our Open Championship Odds & Field page.

Open Championship Winner Prediction

Scottie Scheffler (+700) • DraftKings Sportsbook

What can we say about Scheffler that hasn’t already been said for multiple weeks in a row? If it weren’t for his putter (there’s always something), Scottie would have at least five wins this season, and that could be a conservative estimate.

He has not finished outside of the top 12 in the entire calendar year of 2023. He also leads the PGA Tour in nearly every conceivable major statistic: SG:OTT, SG: Approach, SG: T2G, SG: Total, the list goes on and on.

There is a very good reason that despite McIlroy winning the Scottish Open last week, Scheffler is currently the shortest number on the odds board.

Can Scheffler put it all together this week with the putter? He’s gained strokes on the greens in three of his last six events, and he won this season at one of the top course comparisons we have this week in TPC Sawgrass.

I say he does it.

Open Championship Best Bets

Xander Schauffele Top-20 Finish (+110) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Schauffele may not have been able to get himself into the winner’s conversation so far this season, but if there’s one thing he does well, it’s contend. He has finished inside the top 20 in nine of his last 11 tournaments and also in six straight majors.

Xander has been a model of consistency this season. He ranks highly in a ton of key metrics this week, including 1st in Bogey Avoidance, 2nd in Good Drives Gained, 4th in SG: Approach, and 10th in 3-Putt Avoidance.

Rickie Fowler > Dustin Johnson, Tommy Fleetwood (+170) at DraftKings Sportsbook

This is an intriguing tournament 3-ball that I took a look at, and I think given the history, it’s a nice plus-money shot. First of all, remember that Rickie finished runner-up the last time the Open Championship was held at Hoylake in 2014. DJ might have finished T12, but Fleetwood didn’t make the cut.

We cannot ignore Rickie’s form anymore, he’s playing incredibly well. Passing over last week’s Scottish Open, he had five straight top-15 finishes in a row.

Johnson has been trending down slightly lately and I would take Rickie over Tommy based on ceiling outcomes.

Brooks Koepka Outright Winner (+2000) at BetMGM

One of the things that’s been said many times this week about Royal Liverpool is the lack of true shot-shaping this course demands. Anyone who can hit the ball straight and fly it through wind, will have a distinct advantage with the coastal weather.

If you find yourself shying away from the Scheffler and McIlroy tier of odds, Koepka should be your next target here. Prior to St. Andrews last year, Koepka had been on a links golf tear, gaining 41.5 strokes total in his previous five Open Championships.

Looking at the numbers, Koepka fits this stage well. A flat course with zero blind shots will always be a track he enjoys and he should be on your card at this solid number.

Open Championship Longshot Bets

Joaquin Niemann Outright (+15000) • DraftKings Sportsbook

I’m starting to sound like a broken record with how much Niemann love I’ve spewed out this major championship season. He has found his way onto all four of my major betting cards and three times so far he has let me down.

Once again, though, he just is a terrific fit for this course and it shows in my model because, apart from a middling Bogey Avoidance ranking, he is a long-iron specialist that plays long par 5s and mid-par 4s particularly well. His slow-green putting has also been solid.

Denny McCarthy Outright (+12500) • BetMGM

McCarthy has next to zero experience on links courses, but I have one simple statistic to vault his up my board: no matter what surface you put him on, this kid putts realllllly well.

Apart from that, his par-4 scoring on these length par 4s and his ability to put the ball in the fairway off the tee will be solid no matter where he plays. He’s having one heck of a season, so why can’t he win one here at a superbly long price?

Open Championship Course Preview

Royal Liverpool (Hoylake, England)

  • Par 71: 7,383 yards
  • Since the 2014 Open Championship, the course has been lengthened by about 70 yards. A brand new 136-yard par-3, 17th hole was introduced, while hole 10 has been converted into a long par 4 from a middling par 5.
  • The course is a true ocean links course. Wind will be a major defense this week, especially on players’ mid-to-long iron shots.
  • The greens are similar to most links-style courses, as they are fescue-based with a blend of bentgrass. They are expected to run at a 10 on the Stimpmeter, which is very slow for a major championship. Oversized greens and tight runoffs will create challenging issues for players around the green this week, making scrambling a needed metric.

Author

Sam Wagman

Sam is the Sports Content Editor for The Game Day. He has been in the sports media industry for 4 years, with stints at VegasInsider, Footballguys, and Fantasy Points. Sam specializes in fantasy football content creation and strategy as well as sports betting content strategy with an NFL and PGA focus. Originally from Philadelphia, he enjoys all Philly sports despite now living in Florida. He enjoys playing tennis, pickleball, and golf -- while constantly struggling to break 80 on the course.

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