The PLAYERS Championship Best Bets | 2022 PGA Pick of the Day

Posted: Mar 8, 2022Last updated: Mar 8, 2022

Things didn’t quite go our way at the Arnold Palmer Invitational as Will ZalatorisSungjae Im, and Rory McIlroy all started strong, but faded over the weekend in difficult conditions at Bay Hill.

In the end, Scottie Scheffler was the last man standing, earning his second victory in three starts.

This week, the Florida swing heads to the iconic Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass for the 2022 PLAYERS Championship, often referred to as golf’s fifth major.

The PLAYERS has earned that moniker for a number of reasons, namely the top-tier field that will compete for a massive prize purse this week. This year’s champion will bring in a whopping $3.6 million.

Not too shabby.

Let’s see if we can get ourselves back in the money this week after reviewing the odds and some of our PLAYERS Championship best bets.

The PLAYERS Championship Winner Odds 2022

The PLAYERS Championship winner PGA odds are current as of 6:30 p.m. ET on Monday, March 7, courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

  • Justin Thomas (+1400)
  • Collin Morikawa (+1400)
  • Jon Rahm (+1400)
  • Rory McIlroy (+1800)
  • Viktor Hovland (+2000)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
  • Scottie Scheffler (+2500)
  • Xander Schauffele (+2800)
  • Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)
  • Dustin Johnson (+3000)
  • Daniel Berger (+3000)

Sportsbook Play of the Day

Before you make your next PGA bet, you should know that Caesars Sportsbook is among the industry’s best, offering tons of promotions and up to $1,100 in first bet insurance when you sign up using our promo code .

Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our PLAYERS Championship tipster picks.

The PLAYERS Championship Course Tips

Stadium Course, TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra Beach, FL)

  • Par 72 (7,256 yards)
  • This Pete Dye design will challenge the world’s best players, but it shouldn’t be as penal as Bay Hill was over the past weekend. Avoiding the water and sand will still be paramount to success, but a thinner cut of rough should give players some leeway if they stray just wide of the fairway.
  • Taking advantage of the four Par-5s and three Par-4s under 400 yards will be vital, as there are plenty of places to make bogey or worse. The final two holes, for example, see the highest percentage of players make double bogey or worse at nearly 8% each.
  • The island green at No. 17 is synonymous with Sawgrass and can ruin anyone’s chances. In the opening round last year, Ben An dumped four balls in the water on 17 to card an octuple bogey 11. Yikes.
  • The final hole is no slouch, either. A precise tee shot is required to handle this narrow dogleg left with trees on the right and a lake on the left. Keeping it out of the water, especially on the weekend, will go a long way.
  • While the average winning score is -16 over the past three years, that may be difficult to achieve this year. An early look at the weather forecast projects a chance of rain each of the first three days and winds gusting up to 15-20 mph over the weekend. If that holds true, we could see the winning score end up closer to -10.
  • Approach play is generally the key to success on this course. The last two champions, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy, are two of the best ball-strikers in the game and both gained over six strokes on approach during their winning weeks. We have seen some players putt their way to the top of the leaderboard, as Webb Simpson did in 2018, so don’t count out Bermuda grass specialists, either.

The PLAYERS Championship Field

The biggest names in golf, outside of Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, will tee it up this week at TPC Sawgrass.

World No. 1 Jon Rahm, defending champion Justin Thomas, and two-time major winner Collin Morikawa lead the pack at +1400 odds.

Viktor Hovland will try to go one better after finishing runner-up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, while Scottie Scheffler will hope to keep up his immaculate form of late.

Other notables in the field include multi-major championship winners Brooks Koepka and Jordan Spieth as well as past PLAYERS champions Jason Day, Adam Scott, and Sergio Garcia.

One absence of note is Bryson DeChambeau, who finished T-3 here last year and is still working his way back from injury.

Justin Thomas

Can last year’s champion Justin Thomas replicate his success at TPC Sawgrass and win the 2022 PLAYERS Championship? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

The PLAYERS Championship Best Prop Bets

Brooks Koepka to Win The PLAYERS (+4800) at FanDuel

Koepka is the definition of a big-game hunter. While this isn’t a major championship, it’s as close to one as you’re going to get.

The four-time major winner’s name is only this far down the board because he’s missed the cut in four of his last seven events and hasn’t really played his best golf since last summer.

There have been some signs of life recently, however, as Koepka gained 7.2 strokes ball striking (off the tee + approach) at the Phoenix Open and 5.3 at the Honda Classic in his last start. Those top-20 finishes were his first since the Open Championship (T-6) in July.

His record at TPC Sawgrass isn’t the worst, either, as he’s got a pair of top-20 finishes in his last four starts. In the end, this is just a bet on his pedigree at a great price.

Daniel Berger Top-5 Finish (+800) at DraftKings

A disastrous Sunday at the Honda Classic may cause many to shy away from Berger, but I’m ready to jump back on the wagon.

The 28-year-old is a good fit for the course, as he generally finds the fairway and can strike his irons with the best of them. Putting on Bermuda grass is also a strength for the former FSU Seminole, who already has a pair of top-10 finishes at TPC Sawgrass under his belt.

I like Berger’s upside this week and could be making an outright bet on him for our PGA bet of the day.

Hideki Matsuyama Top-10 Finish (+290) at FanDuel

Hideki Matsuyama had the first-round lead at The PLAYERS in 2020 before the event was canceled at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. He also finished in the top 10 in both 2019 and 2016.

His approach play has been stellar in recent months, leading to victories at the ZOZO Championship in October and the Sony Open in January. He’s gained 2+ strokes on approach in all but one event since the turn of the year and has even shown the ability to spike with the putter.

He hung tough in brutal conditions last week at Bay Hill and could certainly find himself scoring another top-10 finish in this event.

Alex Noren Top-20 Finish (+450) at FanDuel

Given how he’s been striking the ball lately, Noren could be worth a look on the outright market at +12000, but this is definitely the safer option as the 39-year-old Swede has yet to win on the PGA Tour.

He’s been pretty close of late, however, finishing T-6 at the Phoenix Open and posting a T-5 at the Honda Classic in his latest start.

Noren has gained strokes on approach in each of his last five starts and has trended up each week, most recently gaining 5.4 strokes at the Honda Classic which was good for seventh there.

Abraham Ancer Over Talor Gooch (+100) at DraftKings

Abraham Ancer hasn’t been particularly good of late, while Talor Gooch was in the final group last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

So, why am I making this bet?

Ancer has come to be known as a Pete Dye course specialist, ranking first in strokes gained from tee to green of any golfer in the field on Dye-designed courses over the last 36 rounds.

Ancer’s best quality is approach play and he’s good at keeping tee balls in the fairway — both useful qualities at TPC Sawgrass. In two starts here, he’s finished T-22 and T-12.

I’m also looking to fade players who had to battle it out in the tough conditions last week at API, so this one was simple for me.

The PLAYERS Championship Event Details

  • Dates: Thursday, March 10 - Sunday, March 13, 2022
  • Course: TPC Sawgrass, Stadium Course
  • Course Dimensions: Par 72 (7,256 yards)
  • 2021 Honda Classic Winner: Justin Thomas
  • How to Watch: ESPN+/Golf Channel/NBC


John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the last two men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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