Premier League Best Bets Matchweek 5

Last Updated: Sep 13, 2023

After an international break that seemed to come all too soon after the start of the Premier League season, players are reporting back to their clubs for another weekend of Premier League action.

With some fascinating matchups on tap in this weekly slate, let’s get into some best bets for the weekend, including a parlay of several major sides.

William Schwartz’s 2023-24 EPL Betting Record: 0-0-0 (0.00 units)

Premier League Matchweek 5 Predictions

Premier League odds used below are current as of Wednesday, Sept. 13, at 9 a.m. ET, at the specified sportsbook.

Aston Villa ML (-110) vs Crystal Palace

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Villa’s value here is deflated by the fact that they’re sitting right in the middle of the table early on, but they’ve been victims of a demanding early schedule.

They’ve lost to Newcastle and Liverpool, two of the top sides in England, while emphatically taking care of business at home with a 4-0 win over Everton and an impressive 3-1 road victory over Burnley.

After finishing seventh in the Prem last season, Villa can build on that strong finish and be even better this year. Playing at home, nearly even-money odds are outstanding value.

Their task is to beat a Crystal Palace squad that has come out relatively strong, but their two wins are by a goal each against sides that figure to be some of the worst in the league.

Palace could be in line for another solid season, as they’ve finished just about mid-table each of the last few seasons, but they’re not ascendant in the same way Unai Emery’s squad appears to be, making this our EPL pick of the day.

Fulham ML (-150) vs Luton Town

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Fulham have caught a tough break by playing Arsenal and Man City as two of their first four matches. After a breakthrough 2022-23 season, in which they finished 10th as a newly-promoted side, the team has some high aspirations and must win matches like a home clash with Luton Town.

It’s Luton’s club’s first-ever Premier League campaign and their first visit to England’s top flight since 1992. That’s a great accomplishment to be sure, but they haven’t looked like they’ve belonged, losing each of their first three matches.

The Fulham moneyline is some excellent value, even in minus-odds. Fulham have drawn Arsenal this year, and just a season ago picked up results like a draw with Liverpool and a win over Chelsea.

Luton isn’t the same level of competition, and the Cottagers should be OK at home.

Nottingham Forest ML (+120) vs Burnley

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Nottingham Forest pulled off a great stretch of results to finish last season and stay up in the Premier League, including three consecutive home wins, one of which was a triumph over an elite Arsenal squad to secure safety from relegation. This year, they’ve only played at home once in their first three games, in a last-second win over Sheffield.

Forest also fought hard, lost narrowly against Man United, and picked up a huge road win over Chelsea. The City Ground has become a veritable fortress, and against promotion side Burnley, Steve Cooper’s side should be absolutely fine.

Forest also employ one of the hottest strikers in the league, Taiwo Awoniyi, who has scored or assisted in each match thus far and will look to get on the scoresheet again against Burnley.

Premier League Matchweek 5 Parlay

EPL Matchweek 5 Parlay (+183)

  • Arsenal ML (-195)
  • Manchester City ML (-215)
  • Tottenham ML (-360)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit


There are no sure things in the Premier League, but these bets all look pretty well poised to hit over the weekend.

Tottenham have rebounded nicely from an opening day draw, as they’ve roared back with three consecutive wins, including a convincing 2-0 result against Manchester United. They’re playing newly promoted Sheffield United, who should be going right back down; the lone point they’ve secured thus far was against Everton, another side who should be on the path to the EFL Championship.

The odds are a bit juiced, but at home, Spurs should positively coast this Saturday.

Arsenal have picked up right where they left off a year ago, with three wins and a draw, as they have also picked up a strong win against Man United. Going up against the aforementioned dreadful Everton squad, it shouldn’t matter that this one is on the road or set at -195 odds.

The Gunners will be picking up all three points at Goodison Park against a side that frankly should not be sharing the field with them.

That leaves us with Manchester City, the most reliable side in the current era of English football. They’re the only team left with an unblemished record this season, having picked up all 12 points from their first four games.

West Ham are also off to an excellent start with three wins and a draw, although staying level with Bournemouth is not a great result. The -220 odds aren’t the greatest in the World, but they work well as a parlay leg; it’s unwise to ever bet against Pep Guardiola’s side at this point.


William Schwartz

As a former athlete and lifetime fan, sports have always been a huge part of my life. I've written about them for almost as long as I've been watching and playing them, from a blog I wrote with a friend in middle school, to journalism classes at the University of Michigan, to today. I hope to bring you entertaining coverage, strong analysis, and profitable betting picks on any and all sports, whether it's MLB baseball, college football, European soccer, or anything in between.

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