The first Premier League matchday of the 2023-24 campaign is officially in the rearview mirror.
Notable results from the first weekend include a draw between Chelsea and Liverpool at Stamford Bridge, Newcastle United drubbing Aston Villa, and both Arsenal and Manchester City earning three points in their debut matches.
Now, EPL bettors can move along to the Matchweek 2 slate, comprising nine matches in total. The schedule begins with Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield United while Tottenham vs Manchester United is the headlining fixture.
But, which markets offer bettors the best value? Let’s dive into my three best bets for Matchweek 2.
Nick Hennion’s 2023-24 EPL Betting Record: 1-2-1 (-0.75 units)
Premier League Matchweek 2 Predictions
Premier League Odds sed below are current as of Wednesday, Aug. 16, at 11 a.m. ET, at the specified sportsbook.
Aston Villa vs Everton Best Bet
Aston Villa Goal Line -1 (+110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This qualifies as a classic buy-low spot on Aston Villa.
Manager Unai Emery’s side posted markedly different metrics at home last season. For the entire campaign, Villa recorded a +0.3 expected goal differential per 90 minutes at Villa Park, per fbref.com.
In 13 home fixtures under Emery, Villa finished with a home record of 9-1-3 (W-D-L) with a +0.21 xGDiff per 90 minutes. However, remove two home fixtures against Liverpool and Arsenal, and the xGDiff per 90 rises to +0.61.
While fading Everton, who dominated Fulham at home, feels a dangerous proposition, the underlying metrics suggest otherwise. Last season, the Toffees finished a horrific road side, posting a -0.91 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
In nine road matches under manager Sean Dyche, Everton recorded a -0.75 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
As a result, we’re prepared to make this our EPL pick of the day.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United Best Bet
Tottenham: Draw No Bet (+105)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
How on Earth is Manchester United favored in this spot?!
The Red Devils looked abysmal at home against Wolves Monday, losing the expected goals battle 2.35 to 2.21. Now, they’re forced to go on the road, where they’ve looked poor in recent memory.
Last season, United finished with a -0.22 xGDiff per 90 minutes away from Old Trafford. That’s the result of poor defensive play - United conceded 0.61 expected goals per 90 more away from home.
That should play right into new Tottenham manager Ange Postecoglou’s hands with a high-flying Spurs attack. At Brentford on Matchweek 1, Spurs generated 1.27 expected goals in Harry Kane’s absence.
Expect United’s regression to come imminently as Tottenham do no worse than a point on Saturday.
Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield United Best Bet
Nottingham Forest Moneyline (-115)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Credit Nottingham Forest, who went on the road as two-goal underdogs and bossed Arsenal around.
The Tricky Trees lost the match, 2-1, but won the expected goals battle 1.18 to 0.83, and the big scoring chances battle 2-0, per fotmob.com.
Now, they get a shot at Sheffield United, who looked lifeless at home against Crystal Palace. The promoted side created only 0.5 expected goals and saw their defense surrender 1.9.
That’s not a recipe for success against Forest, who performed well against poor sides last year at home. In matches against sides 10th or lower in the table, manager Steve Cooper’s side finished 5-3-2 (W-D-L) with a +0.21 non-penalty expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
Given Sheffield finished at +0.03 xGDiff per 90 away from home in the Championship, expect them to struggle in this fixture.
Premier League Matchweek 2 Parlay (+5082)
- Aston Villa Moneyline (-155) vs. Everton
- Newcastle United Moneyline (+425) vs. Manchester City
- Crystal Palace Moneyline (+500) vs. Arsenal
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.1 Unit
Let’s have a little fun here, shall we?
We’ll opt for one safe bet in the Aston Villa moneyline. Just in case they win but don’t cover, this is a good option.
From there, we’ll opt for two high-priced underdogs. City will be without Kevin De Bruyne and has to play a midweek fixture. Even for Pep Guardiola, that could prove a hitch against a strong Newcastle side, which finished with a +0.25 road expected goal differential last season.
Then, we’ll go against Arsenal, who looked dreadful at home against Forest and have no business sitting as this big a favorite. Take out Palace’s fluky home match against Fulham last season, and they finished with only a -0.05 home xGDiff per 90 minutes.
A lot has to go right here, but it’s worth a flier at 50/1.
Premier League Matchweek 2 Odds
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