Matchweek 16 gave us a new Premier League leader, with Arsenal dropping points to Aston Villa and Liverpool leapfrogging the Gunners for first.
This week features some high-profile teams in challenging fixtures, so let’s dig into some of the best bets on the table for Matchweek 17, including a parlay featuring some big squads.
William Schwartz’s 2023-24 EPL Betting Record: 19-29-0 (-4.66 units)
Premier League Matchweek 17 Predictions
Premier League odds used below are current as of Wednesday, Dec. 14, at 6 p.m. ET, at the specified sportsbook.
Aston Villa Moneyline (+115) at Brentford
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Is there a hotter team in England than Aston Villa? Their past four league matches include wins over Manchester City, Arsenal, and Tottenham Hotspur, which makes a great resume for a season, let alone a couple of weeks.
The excellent form stretches back to last season. Unai Emery stepped in midway through the campaign to manage a squad hovering around the relegation zone, and he pulled them all the way to qualification for the Europa Conference League.
Now, Villa owns the third-most prolific attack in the league, has a diverse front line led by Ollie Watkins, and sits in third place between Arsenal and Manchester City.
This could be viewed as buying high, but they’re still in plus-money against a team in the bottom half of the table.
Brentford have lost three of their past four matches, with a home win over lowly Luton Town as the lone exception.
Villa is soaring and it doesn’t look like they’ll be caught anytime soon, certainly not by one of the most decidedly average teams in the league.
Newcastle Moneyline (-120) at Fulham
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Last week, we bet against Newcastle United after coming off of an ugly loss to Everton. Facing a similarly desperate Tottenham side, we decided that the market had not yet hit a low point for the Magpies.
However, now it has. A second consecutive domestic loss gives us a great opportunity to bet on a still-strong team at home against an opponent with little track record of points against top sides.
Fulham fought hard with Liverpool but ultimately lost, and it arguably would not have been as close had Alisson been healthy for the Reds. Elsewhere, an August draw with Arsenal is the only time they’ve pulled points from a team currently in the table’s top six.
It’s worth noting that Newcastle’s league struggles have mostly come away from home, with the exception of a wild comeback by 10-man Liverpool in August.
The Magpies have lost four times on the road, including those two most recent defeats, while they’ve won seven of their eight home matches.
Up against a Fulham team that hasn’t won away since opening day, Eddie Howe’s men should be able to pull a result this weekend, and we have some solid value presented by the current odds after a rough stretch.
West Ham Moneyline (+120) vs Wolves
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This is as good of a buy-low spot as you’re ever going to find, as West Ham United just suffered a 5-0 beating at the hands of the same Fulham squad we just discussed.
It was their fourth road loss of the season, compared to two at home. They’ve only played seven of their 16 matches thus far at London Stadium, so it’s been a strenuous start to the season, especially paired with ongoing participation in the Carabao Cup and Europa League, but the Hammers are potentially beginning to adjust.
Before the Fulham loss, they had won three matches and drawn once in their previous four, with James Ward-Prowse continuing to play some excellent football after his Southampton exit.
Conversely, Wolverhampton Wanderers have drawn and won in their past two matches, a pretty solid pair of results after losing three of their previous four.
Fading them on the road has been a good strategy this year, as they’ve only beaten Everton and Bournemouth in eight road trips, while Manchester City and Tottenham have lost at Molineux Stadium in this year’s league competition.
Both teams have struggled a bit at the back this season, so it should be a fun game full of goals, and in a close competition like that, you’d tend to favor the home side.
Premier League Matchweek 17 Parlay
EPL Matchweek 17 Parlay (+109)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
- Man City ML (-575) vs Crystal Palace
- Arsenal ML (-210) vs Brighton
- Tie or Tottenham (-475) at Nottingham Forest
After a few weeks of craziness, the cream tends to rise to the top as things settle down, so let’s invest in some of the league’s best sides to re-establish themselves in a thrilling, multi-squad title race.
For Manchester City, the value proposition is simple: This is a squad with years of experience running season-long title races, and Pep Guardiola finally got the result he needed as the Cityzens got back into the win column with a comeback over Luton.
It will be full steam ahead as European competition takes a break, and all focus will be on the Premier League for City. Usually, that means some big wins, especially at home.
Similarly, Arsenal will be happy to return home after a road loss to that scorching-hot Villa squad, just their second defeat of the season.
Brighton & Hove Albion, however, have fallen off a great deal as they’re down to eighth place in the league after sitting in the top four for some of the earlier stages of the season, even briefly finding themselves atop the table.
They’ve won just twice in their past 10 Premier League matches, and all three losses in that span have been on the road, so the Gunners should be able to get back on track in this one.
Lastly, we’ll back Tottenham once more after they emphatically snapped out of their losing streak with a dominant win over Newcastle.
We’re adding the “or tie” caveat due to Nottingham Forest’s generally strong performances at home, including a win over Villa this season. Still, there’s almost no chance this team, which sits in 16th and could be lower if not for Everton’s points deduction, is going to take all three points from Ange Postecoglou’s squad.
