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Premier League Best Bets Matchweek 16

Last Updated: Dec 31, 2023

With matchweek 15 providing the Premier League’s contenders with the new challenge of midweek fixtures, it’ll be fascinating to see how the extra workload affects different squads- who will be able to adapt, and who will get left behind?

While the Wednesday and Thursday fixtures carry on, let’s take a look at some of the best bets for this weekend’s competition, including a parlay of some of the league’s elite sides.

William Schwartz’s 2023-24 EPL Betting Record: 17-23-0 (-0.96 units)

Premier League Matchweek 16 Predictions

Premier League odds used below are current as of Wednesday, Dec. 6, at 9 a.m. ET, at the specified sportsbook.

Wolves Moneyline (+105) vs Nottingham Forest

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

As strong as Forest have tended to be at home, they’ve been a disaster anywhere other than the City Ground this season. They picked up a shocking road win at Chelsea, but outside of that match, Steve Cooper’s men have played six other road games, drawn one and lost the other five.

Even at home, they’re in terrible form; the last two matches they’ve played on their own turf have both been losses, a 3-2 thriller against Brighton and a really disappointing 1-0 defeat at the hands of Everton.

Meanwhile, Wolves have turned Molineux Stadium into something of a fortress themselves. After losing their first two home matches of the league campaign- due in large part to drawing a pair of daunting opponents in Brighton and Liverpool- they’ve won three matches and drawn two at their home ground, against some impressive competition, no less.

The draws were against very solid Newcastle and Aston Villa sides, while two of the wins came against Tottenham and Manchester City themselves, the defending champions’ first time dropping points all season. Wolves sit higher than Forest on the table for good reason; at home, that gap will only be exacerbated.

Back Wolverhampton in our EPL pick of the day.

Arsenal Moneyline (+105) at Aston Villa

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

After a wacky Tuesday win over Luton Town, Mikel Arteta’s side will have slightly more time than their opponents to recover for Saturday’s fascinating clash. Conversely, Villa will be coming off of what is sure to be a taxing match against Manchester City, although they do have the benefit of staying at home, where they’ve been fantastic this season.

Now, let’s talk about that perfect Villa home record in the league, which has surely been factored into Arsenal’s plus-odds moneyline price. The home side has taken all available points from six Prem matches at Villa Park, but who did they beat to do it? Everton, Crystal Palace, Brighton, West Ham, Luton and Fulham. In those six games, there’s really only one quality victory, over Brighton, a memorable 6-1 triumph that wasn’t nearly as lopsided as the scoreline suggests.

This perfect record, while a positive trend to be sure, is a sham to a certain degree as it hasn’t really been tested by top competition. With Arsenal coming in with a full head of steam after four consecutive league wins and star winger Bukyao Saka in magnificent form with two goals and three assists in his past four matches across all competitions, the streak should come to an end this weekend.

Tottenham Moneyline (+135) vs Newcastle

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

In perhaps the most interesting match of the weekend, we’ll see two fringe contenders duke it out to see who really deserves to be in this year’s title race if either of them does. It’s an extremely close match, with Spurs sitting in fifth on the table, and Newcastle just a point behind in sixth. With Tottenham stuck in their biggest rut of the season to date, pending their Wednesday clash with West Ham, we have to buy low on them as the home side in a very tight matchup.

It also helps that Spurs will play their midweek game at home while Newcastle will be on the road at a rowdy Goodison Park; it’s the little things that all add up to create an edge. However, there are also some more concrete reasons to believe that Tottenham will be able to get the job done against the Magpies.

With Son Heung-min and Dejan Kulusevski firing on all cylinders and aligned as a central striker/CAM pairing, Spurs should have the firepower to break through the middle of Newcastle’s defense and get on the scoresheet, a task at which so many teams have failed. Conversely, with Cristian Romero returning for Tottenham, it’s hard to say that Newcastle will be able to do the same at the other end.

Premier League Matchweek 16 Parlay

EPL Matchweek 16 Parlay (+224)

  • Liverpool ML (-165) at Crystal Palace
  • Brighton ML (-190) vs. Burnley
  • Tie or Chelsea (-130) at Everton

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Liverpool haven’t been beaten this Prem season outside of a heavily controversial defeat at Tottenham, and but to all of the great teams at the top, their strong form has largely flown under the radar. They’ve been a bit shakier on the road than at Anfield, where they are still perfect, but they’ve still picked up some really nice results, like a win at Newcastle and a big draw at Manchester City; they should be absolutely fine visiting a Palace team who recently lost at home to Everton.

Burnley are a quiet contender for the league’s worst team this season; while Luton have been considered automatic relegation candidates and an already-bad Everton side took a points deduction, the Clarets still sit below both of them on the table. Their form has actually been slightly better on the road, where two of their three non-losses have taken place, but they’re not going to travel to a Brighton side that has fought off Liverpool and Manchester United and steal a point.

Lastly, we’ll back Chelsea once more. While we’ll all be waiting with bated breath to see how they do against Manchester United on Wednesday, they should have no issue shutting down Everton regardless of that match’s result. The Blues’ attack can go quiet at times, but with the stellar recent play of midfielder Conor Gallagher, they can definitely expect to control the football enough to at least secure the draw.

Author

William Schwartz

As a former athlete and lifetime fan, sports have always been a huge part of my life. I've written about them for almost as long as I've been watching and playing them, from a blog I wrote with a friend in middle school, to journalism classes at the University of Michigan, to today. I hope to bring you entertaining coverage, strong analysis, and profitable betting picks on any and all sports, whether it's MLB baseball, college football, European soccer, or anything in between.

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