Matchweek 14 saw a shake-up at the top of the table after Liverpool and City fought to another classic draw, yet another reminder that there are many twists and turns left in what is shaping up to be the best title race in years.
With some exciting matches at and around the top of the table coming up in matchweek 14, let’s look at some of the biggest ones and make our picks, including a parlay, to capture some big-money potential value.
William Schwartz’s 2023-24 EPL Betting Record: 15-21-0 (-2.46 units)
Premier League Matchweek 14 Predictions
Premier League odds used below are current as of Wednesday, Nov. 29, at 9 a.m. ET, at the specified sportsbook.
Newcastle United ML (-105) vs. Manchester United
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Newcastle have been fantastic at home this season in the Premier League. After a 4-1 demolition of Chelsea, featuring a goal and assist from Anthony Gordon and another Kieran Trippier masterclass, they’ve now won six of seven league matches at St. James’ Park. The lone defeat was the Darwin Núñez miracle comeback by Liverpool, which itself was a few ticks of the clock away from being a win or at least a draw itself.
Those six wins have included a mastery of the “Big Six” of late, as the previous one before the Chelsea match was a lovely shutout win over Arsenal. They’ve also knocked off fourth-place Aston Villa in dominant fashion, although that match was months ago now.
As for Man United, simply put, it’s always best to sell on them whenever their stock gets too high. This team is remarkably inconsistent, and after three consecutive wins over bottom-table sides, it’s time to fade them. Erik ten Hag’s iteration of the Red Devils have yet to find any semblance of an identity, and they won’t be the squad to end the Magpies’ home dominance.
Back Newcastle in our EPL pick of the day.
West Ham ML (+100) vs Crystal Palace
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
West Ham have been up and down this year, but they’ve generally been solid at home, with three wins and a draw from six matches, especially because one of the two losses was against Manchester City. They’ve also generally beaten the bottom teams and lost to the top teams, with a few exceptions, an unsurprising trend given their spot near the dead middle of the table.
Jarrod Bowen is injured amidst a great start to the year, but the Hammers pulled off a comeback win in his absence against Burnley, and he might be fit for this match, even if just to provide a sub appearance.
Either way, this team has contributors up and down the lineup, highlighted by Lucas Paquetá and James Ward-Prowse, who is making the most of his first shot with a larger club as he leads the team in both league assists and match rating as per FotMob. Going up against a Palace team that just completed the borderline-impossible double of losing to both Everton and Luton, David Moyes’s squad should roll to another three points this weekend.
Tie or Tottenham Win (+255) at Manchester City
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
We’re doing something new here- prospectively playing a half-unit on a play we’re not precisely projecting but one we see as completely misvalued. City are rightful favorites, but this kind of payout for a good Spurs team to even be able to secure a single point is ludicrous. These teams are separated by just three points in the table, and the Etihad is not the impenetrable fortress it’s been made out to be. City’s tremendous home win streak ended after a nice Liverpool draw last weekend.
Other than Liverpool, Spurs are the only team that have consistently given City trouble over the past few years. They won the most recent clash between the two sides in February and three of the four most recent Prem matchups between the clubs. Yes, most of their successes in this “rivalry” have been at home, but they did get all three points at City not too long ago, in February of 2022.
This is also a tremendous buy-low spot for Spurs after an unlucky loss to Villa and a three-match losing streak in the league. This is still a great team, and Ange Postecoglou will surely be able to rally his troops to put in a significant shift in what needs to be a point-yielding game if they are to stay in this multi-squad title race. Considering the odds allow you to wager a half-unit and profit more than a full unit, it’s definitely with a sprinkle.
Premier League Matchweek 14 Parlay
EPL Matchweek 14 Parlay (+225)
- Arsenal ML (-330) vs. Wolves
- Liverpool ML (-400) vs. Fulham
- Aston Villa ML (+100) at Bournemouth
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
It takes a lot for an away side to break into our weekly parlay. Still, at even-money odds against one of the worst teams in all of England, we will have to invest in Unai Emery’s fantastic Aston Villa group, whose strong start sees them wedged between Liverpool and Tottenham as they sit in fourth place. Ollie Watkins continues to light the World on fire, as he provided the winner in the comeback win over Tottenham, Villa’s fourth win from their past five Prem games.
As for Liverpool and Arsenal, the handicap is a bit simpler. Both of these squads are coming off of solid enough performances on the road and are both coming home, where both sides are much more comfortable. They’re going up against Wolves and Fulham, who have combined for eight wins- as many as the Reds and one fewer than the table-topping Gunners. Both superpowers should coast at home and live to fight another day as fixtures begin to clog.
