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NFL Christmas DFS Picks & Sleepers

Frank AmmiranteFantasy Sports & Betting Writer
Posted: Dec 22, 2022Last updated: Dec 26, 2022
  1. We’ve got a three-game NFL DFS slate on Christmas Day to ring in the holidays. Smaller slates are favorable because you have a chance to jam in core plays while targeting contrarian options to differentiate your lineups from the competition.

This slate features two projected low-scoring affairs in the Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Arizona Cardinals games. The one to target is the projected shootout between the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins.

In this article, we’ll uncover the best picks and sleepers for the NFL Christmas DFS slate, using OwnersBox pricing. This is a SuperFlex format where you have a chance to start two quarterbacks.

To finish it off, you’ll find a list of tips for both cash games and large-field tournaments.

NFL Christmas DFS: Best Picks

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers ($6,200)

Rodgers goes up against a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in Pass DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Miami is giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

The future Hall-of-Famer is ranked third in pricing, behind Tua Tagovailoa and Tom Brady. This makes Rodgers a strong value in a projected shootout against the Dolphins.

These circumstances make Rodgers our NFL DFS pick of the day.

Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins ($6,000)

Mostert takes on a Packers defense that ranks 32nd in Rush DVOA. The veteran back just gashed the Buffalo Bills for 136 yards on only 17 carries.

There’s a chance that Jeff Wilson Jr. will be out for another week, allowing Mostert to continue carrying the load. Even if Wilson plays, Mostert is a strong bet to lead this backfield.

Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,400)

Godwin is among the safest wideouts you can roster in fantasy, as he’s racked up 97 targets over his last nine games (10.8 per game). You love to see that type of heavy volume.

The Bucs’ star is priced as the fifth-most expensive wideout on the slate. You can save a full $1,000 by pivoting off Tyreek Hill toward Godwin.

Greg Dulcich, TE, Denver Broncos ($4,200)

Dulcich is coming off a surprising dud against the Arizona Cardinals, but this is exactly the archetype that you should covet in DFS.

He’s a tight end that sees volume (17% target share since Week 11) along with downfield targets (9.7 average target depth during that stretch). Dulcich is only $200 more than Cade Otton.

NFL Christmas DFS: Sleepers

Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers ($4,800)

Doubs returned to action last week, catching all five of his targets for 55 yards. This was despite seeing limited work, as he only played on 32 percent of the snaps while finishing fourth in routes.

Perhaps the reduced role was due to it being his first game back from injury. We could see more usage in a good spot against a Dolphins’ defense that is more vulnerable through the air.

Marlon Mack, RB, Denver Broncos ($4,600)

Mack plays second fiddle to Latavius Murray, but he comes at an affordable price. The veteran back has found the end zone in consecutive games, racking up 15 touches during that span.

While he’s definitely a touchdown-dependent player, his low price allows you to jam in more players from the Packers and Dolphins game, such as Jaylen Waddle.

Russell Gage, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,200)

Gage had a huge game against the Bengals, catching 8 of 12 targets for 59 yards and two touchdowns. You love to see that type of heavy volume from a player that only costs $4,200.

We should see the Bucs have success through the air against the Cardinals, who rank 20th in Pass DVOA. This is a full-PPR format, which aligns perfectly with Gage’s skillset of racking up shorter targets.

NFL Christmas DFS: Cash Lineup Tips

  • Target high-floor players with heavy volume like Godwin.
  • Avoid wideouts plagued by poor quarterback play, such as Marquise Brown.
  • You don’t need to get contrarian here, just play the top options at cost.

NFL Christmas DFS: GPP Lineup Tips

  • Differentiate your lineup by being contrarian, like stacking the Denver Broncos this week.
  • Target players with high ceilings, such as Christian Watson.
  • Stack your quarterback with at least two of his pass-catchers.

Author

Frank Ammirante

Before joining The Game Day, Frank spent three years in the fantasy sports and betting industry, writing for websites like RotoBaller and 4for4football. Frank is an active member of the fantasy baseball and fantasy football community, participating in high-stakes leagues like NFBC/NFFC as well as industry competitions like Scott Fish Bowl, RazzBowl, and TGFBI. Frank is a member of the FSWA and IBWAA. Give him a shout to talk fantasy sports and sports betting.

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