Thanks for arriving at The Game Day for X-mas football picks! Click for our new NFL Prop Bets Christmas page.
They say there are no days off in the NFL (or at least Bill Belichick does), and that includes Christmas Day.
This year, football fans are getting a pair of exciting NFL Week 16 matchups in their stockings. The 7-7 Cleveland Browns will travel to Green Bay to take on the 11-3 Packers, followed by the 8-6 Indianapolis Colts battling the 10-4 Arizona Cardinals in the desert.
Beyond the usual wagering opportunities, there are plenty of great prop bets to consider for both games as well. Let’s explore with our best NFL Christmas prop bets and picks.
Christmas NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 11:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, December 21.
NFL Christmas Prop Bets: NFL Week 16 Prop Betting Picks
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (4:30 PM EST)
Packers To Win 1st Quarter (-128) at FOX Bet
Wager: 1 Unit
Both teams are coming off games that went down to the wire in Week 15. The Packers survived another failed two-point conversion by the Baltimore Ravens during the final minute, while the Browns fell on a walk-off field goal to the Las Vegas Raiders.
While Green Bay returns home for this matchup, Cleveland must try to bounce back from a demoralizing loss in one of the toughest road environments in football. The Browns will also have one less day of rest than the Packers after playing on Monday night.
- Read our Packers vs Browns predictions for Week 16.
Accordingly, don’t be surprised if Cleveland comes out flat on Saturday, especially if Baker Mayfield is unable to return from the reserve/COVID-19 list in time. While Nick Mullens filled in admirably for him against Las Vegas, Mullens is no Aaron Rodgers.
With the Packers riding a three-game win streak and trying to keep the best record in the NFL, look for them to start strong in front of a fired-up crowd at Lambeau.
NFL Christmas Player Props To Bet
Check out the best NFL prop bets to make with our props comparison tool, including projections to help you make the best decisions.
Click “Place Bet" to unlock the associated sportsbook’s welcome offer and place your NFL prop picks, including NFL Christmas prop picks.
Learn more about NFL prop bets and the best sportsbooks for prop betting.
Under 46.5 Total Points (-110) at FOX Bet
Wager: 1 Unit
Regardless of who starts under center for Cleveland, this looks like it’s going to be a low-scoring affair. Both defenses have played well this season, ranking in the top 12 for fewest points allowed.
The Browns also have a penchant for playing in low-scoring games due to their strong defense and run-heavy offense. Their offense has scored 17 points or less in seven of their last nine games, while their defense has surrendered more than 16 points just twice in their last eight games.
- Read our NFL Christmas Best Bets.
I’m not expecting Cleveland’s offense to have much success against Green Bay’s rugged defense, especially if Mullens is pressed into duty again. The Browns will likely try to run the ball as much as possible to kill the clock and keep the ball out of Rodgers’ hands.
Meanwhile, Cleveland’s stout defense should be able to snap Green Bay’s streak of four straight games over 30 points. Even if the Packers threaten that mark again, this Under could still hit due to the Browns’ offensive struggles.
With the game-time temperature projected to be in the low 30s, I’m not expecting a ton of points to be scored in this one. Back the Under for our NFL bet of the day.
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (8:15 PM EST)
Colts Winning Margin 1-6 (+335) at FOX Bet
Wager: 0.5 Units
These two teams are going in opposite directions. The surging Colts are 8-3 over their last 11 games and just ended the New England Patriots’ seven-game winning streak in Week 15.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, have faded since their hot start, going 3-4 over their last seven games as injuries have started to pile up. Arizona is also coming off an embarrassing 30-12 loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 15.
Indianapolis is firing on all cylinders and suddenly looks like one of the most dangerous teams in football. Carson Wentz is playing his best football in years, nobody can stop Jonathan Taylor, and their defense has allowed 17 points or less in four of their last five games.
The Cardinals have lost consecutive games for the first time all season and are limping to the finish line without DeAndre Hopkins, who will miss the rest of the regular season with a knee injury. This game should be close, but I think Indy pulls it out on the road by a field goal or two.
Cardinals Under 24.5 Total Points (-118) at FOX Bet
Wager: 0.5 Units
The Cardinals’ offense has cooled off as of late, scoring 23 points or less in five of their last seven games. They looked totally out of sync against the Lions, getting shut out in the first half and finishing with just 12 points.
Now Arizona’s scuffling offense will face one of its toughest tests of the season against an Indianapolis unit that’s allowing just 21.4 points per game this year, ninth fewest in the NFL.
It’s also going to be tough for Kyler Murray and company to put up points if the Cardinals’ defense is unable to contain Taylor, who’s topped 100 rushing yards in eight of his last 11 games. The Colts will likely control time of possession and rarely turn the ball over, reducing the number of scoring chances for Arizona.
With fewer opportunities for the Cardinals’ offense, Indy should be able to hold them to 24 points or less.