Well, this game just got a lot more interesting, didn’t it?
In case you hadn’t heard, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will miss Sunday’s showdown with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs after testing positive for COVID, putting the Packers’ seven-game win streak in jeopardy.
That means Jordan Love, the designated heir-apparent to the Rodgers throne, will get his very first NFL start. Love appeared in Green Bay’s first two games of the season — both of which were blowouts — but hasn’t played since.
With Love under center, how will that affect this game’s NFL prop bets? Let’s dive in.
Please note that all NFL Week 9 odds and lines are current as of 3 PM EST on Thursday, November 4.
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Packers vs Chiefs Prop Bets: NFL Week 9 Prop Betting Picks
1st Score: Chiefs Field Goal (+330) at Caesars
While Kansas City’s defense has struggled this year, it will likely take a drive or two for Love to get into the flow of the game, especially in a loud Arrowhead Stadium.
This means the Chiefs will likely score first, although their offense hasn’t been as efficient lately. Defenses have adjusted to their schemes, typically by keeping two high safeties to contain wide receiver Tyreek Hill. As a result, Kansas City has been held to 20 points or less in three of its last four games.
Green Bay’s defense has been surprisingly formidable this season, allowing the ninth-fewest points per game (20.9) in the NFL. They just held Kyler Murray‘s Arizona Cardinals to 21 points and have now allowed 22 points or less in six of their last seven games.
With the Chiefs’ offense struggling and the Packers’ defense playing well, the first score of the game will likely be a Harrison Butker field goal.
- Read our full NFL Week 9 Packers vs Chiefs predictions and betting tips.
Winning Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 Points (+320) at Caesars
With how the Chiefs have played this season it’s extremely difficult to take them with any spread of a touchdown or more, especially after they barely beat the New York Giants at home on Monday Night Football.
Kansas City should take care of Green Bay at home, but Matt LaFleur will have an offense planned around running the ball and trying to extend drives, as he did when Green Bay’s receiving corps was decimated by COVID against Arizona. Look for the Packers to rely heavily on Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon again to eat the clock and keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands.
Love should also find success against a Chiefs defense that’s allowing the eighth-most points per game in the NFL this year. He won’t outgun Mahomes, but the Packers should be able to keep the final score within a touchdown and cover the spread from our NFL gameday odds.
Packers to Score Most TDs (+320) at Caesars
This may be a bit of a reach, but this comes back to Kansas City’s struggles on both sides of the ball.
This doesn’t necessarily have to mean that Love mirrors Mike White‘s debut and passes for over 400 yards and multiple scores. This could very well be a spot for the running attack of the Packers to take over, especially with the Chiefs ranking dead-last against the run, according to Pro Football Focus.
Jones and Dillon could account for more touchdowns than the Chiefs, but with Kansas City ultimately prevailing due to a combination of touchdowns and field goals.
While this prop could cancel out the winning margin prop above, we’re trying to identify value. At +320 against a Chiefs defense that could hold open tryouts and get similar quality in play, this NFL bet of the day is too good to pass up.