With Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers testing positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday, Jordan Love is set to make his first career NFL start in Week 9. Luckily, the Utah State product doesn’t have to be too nervous, as he’ll face a Chiefs defense that can’t stop a nosebleed.
While the Chiefs opened up as one-point favorites, the switch at quarterback for the Packers has moved the line to Kansas City -7.5. However, it’s certainly worth questioning if we should blindly bet the Chiefs.
With that said, let’s get into our Packers vs Chiefs predictions and best bets. All odds and lines are current as of 1:00 p.m. ET on Friday, November 5.
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Packers vs Chiefs Prediction
These Chiefs are not the Chiefs of old. The defense is a dumpster fire, and they recently made a trade for Melvin Ingram to try to alleviate some of those issues.
While Ingram will help the front seven, it won’t help a secondary that ranks No. 29 in passing EPA per play allowed and No. 17 in PFF’s coverage grades. The Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL with a 15:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Although he’s making his first career start, Jordan Love should carve up the Kansas City secondary whether he has Davante Adams available or not. However, it looks like Adams is trending towards a Week 9 return.
However, Green Bay isn’t great on defense either. The Packers rank No. 18 in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA and No. 30 in rushing defense DVOA. Mahomes has looked very human, but the Chiefs’ offensive metrics speak to how much this team can score.
This game should still have plenty of points, but I expect the Chiefs to pull out a close victory.
Packers vs Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs 27, Packers 24
Packers vs Chiefs Best Bets
Best Bet: Over 48 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
When the odds were first released, I was looking at the under in this spot. However, the total has moved down dramatically since the Rodgers news, plummeting from 55 all the way down to 48, per our NFL gameday odds.
I think this is an over-reaction, as I’ve seen projections that still make this total around 50.
Losing Rodgers is a big blow, but the Packers’ ground game is consistent and Love should be able to complete some passes in Matt LaFleur’s quarterback-friendly system. Plus, Green Bay gets to face one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
Meanwhile, Mahomes and the Chiefs should be able to put up points against an average Green Bay defense.
Green Bay and Kansas City games are generally high-scoring, and I’m expecting more of the same with or without Rodgers. The over is our NFL bet of the day.
- Read our full NFL Week 9 Packers vs Chiefs Prop Bets.
Best Bet: Packers +7.5 (-120) at Caesars
Wager: 0.25 Units
I don’t have a very good feel for either side of this matchup, especially with the change at quarterback for Green Bay.
However, I’m not trusting Kansas City until it fixes the myriad of issues happening on the field. The Chiefs are also continually overvalued in the market, posting an abysmal 3-16 record against the spread in their last 19 games.
The Packers are rolling, most recently taking down an undefeated Cardinals team on Thursday Night Football despite playing without their top three wideouts. Plus, Green Bay has had extra time to prepare for this matchup, while the Chiefs are coming off a short week after barely beating the Giants 20-17 on Monday Night Football.
So, while losing Rodgers is immense, I trust the Packers in this spot. They’re the better team, in a better situation, catching a lot of points.