So, we won’t win 85 percent of our bets this year. Consider it noted.
After a superb kickoff to our NFL prop bets, we regressed slightly last week. Ultimately, my picks finished 4-4, which isn’t the worst outcome. Still, this is not an acceptable outcome and a shell of our 6-1 performance from the prior week.
Entering Week 4 of the NFL season, however, I will gladly lean into a 10-5 overall start. The games have been largely thrilling, and I hope that theme carries over to this week.
To date, all plays have been one unit.
My problem? There were many games I wanted to hit. Condensing it down took some effort, although I believe I’ve found eight plays I really like.
Here are the Week 4 plays.
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NFL Week 4 Best Prop Bets
Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings
Don’t let the 1-2 record fool you. The Minnesota Vikings have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL through three games. Their two losses have come from a combined four points, and they handled the Seattle Seahawks at home last weekend.
Cleveland, meanwhile, is a rough second half away from being 3-0. The Browns coughed up a lead to Kansas City in the opener, and they followed up that loss with two wins (albeit against the Texans and Bears).
Not only is this one of the most intriguing matchups on the card, but it also has a chance to be a points frenzy.
Minnesota Vikings Over 2.5 Touchdowns (-160) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Let’s start a little safe. I love this offense, and the combination of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen at wide receiver should test a defense that completely shut down the Chicago Bears a week ago.
This is a much taller order, and the total of more than 50 points speaks to the offense we are likely to get. The Vikings will do their part, and Kirk Cousins will continue his remarkable start to the 2021 season.
Minnesota Vikings Over 12.5 Points in First Half (-115) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
I’ll lean into the Vikings a bit more. While Cleveland should find success on offense, home-field advantage should also play a significant role in the hot start. We also saw last week just how good this running game can be without Dalvin Cook.
Alexander Mattison is also a beast, and the running game will be productive regardless of the health of one of the best backs in the NFL.
- Read our full Browns vs. Vikings NFL Week 4 predictions and best bets.
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys
If Monday night is any indication, the Cowboys could evolve into one of the NFC’s most dangerous teams. All the pieces were on display against the Eagles on both sides of the ball, and the play of rookie Micah Parsons on the defensive side is incredibly encouraging.
For Carolina, it’s time to figure out a bit more about who this team really is. The Panthers’ 3-0 mark includes wins over the Texans and the Jets, which probably doesn’t tell us much. But a 26-7 victory over New Orleans certainly stands out.
The question now is how this team, and QB Sam Darnold, will perform on the road against its most dangerous opponent to date.
Under 5.5 Touchdowns (-105) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
I believe a regression is in order. Not just for the Cowboys’ offense, which was meshing on Monday night, but also for the Panthers, which will operate without running back Christian McCaffrey.
Although there are plenty of good skill position players still in this game, there will be far less offense than expected on both sides.
Carolina Panthers Under 3.5 Points 1st Quarter (-140) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Look, I am a tortured Jets fan. That said, I want Darnold to do well. But I do not believe this will be his finest showing, and the benefits of an easy schedule thus far, at least for one week, will surface.
Carolina fails to score a touchdown in the first quarter. Let’s cash it.
- Read our full Panthers vs. Cowboys NFL Week 4 predictions and best bets.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Given what we just saw for the Rams, the outlook on a season already ripe with possibilities now has no ceiling in sight. Los Angeles dominated Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucs at home with a mix of offense and defense, a balanced attack that should translate well against any opponent.
Arizona did not deliver its best performance against the Jaguars, although the Cardinals still left Jacksonville with a 12-point victory. The total in this game, currently at 54.5 points, implies a certain style and pace that should be played at.
And given the sheer weapons on the field, that sentiment is difficult to argue with.
Both Teams to Score 25+ Points (+140) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
I can’t just hammer chalk throughout this piece. I have to take some chances, and this feels like decent value for a game I expect to be high-scoring.
Although Kyler Murray was mortal against Jacksonville last week, I expect an improved effort against a quality defense in Week 5. With a total of 54.5, both teams should be able to hit this mark by the time the game is done.
Arizona Cardinals Over 3.5 Points 1st Quarter (+105) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
I like Arizona this week. I believe many will overreact to last week’s performance from the Rams, which is understandable. Although Arizona, led by its lightning bolt QB, will put pressure on a defense that showed its teeth a week ago.
These two bets go together quite nicely, only Arizona won’t waste any time getting started.
Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams are coming off of their biggest win of the season, but will they be able to continue their winning ways against the Arizona Cardinals? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Best NFL Prop Bets Today
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots
The narrative in this game is inescapable. Tom Brady is heading back to New England, the place where he made winning Super Bowls look routine. His co-pilot for this Super Bowls, Bill Belichick, still graces the other sideline.
Free from that, however, is a significant game for two teams coming off of a loss. Although Brady posted gaudy passing numbers against the Rams, Tampa Bay was largely held in check last week. And the offensive line, which has been so good, showed its crack.
New England, powered by rookie quarterback Mac Jones, looked like a team still trying to find its way with its new QB. The Patriots were no match for New Orleans and will now draw one of the NFL’s best teams at home with an immense amount of interest in the familiar face returning home.
- Read our full Buccaneers vs. Patriots NFL Week 4 predictions and best bets.
New England Patriots Over 2.5 Points 1st Quarter (-160) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
I really like this bet. I know Jones had his struggles last week, although I really like what I’ve seen thus far.
Plus, the Bucs are currently allowing 402 yards per game on defense, ahead of only five teams in total yardage. On the road, with an offense still with plenty of pieces, the Patriots will muster up at least a field goal.
- Read our full Buccaneers vs Patriots NFL Week 4 Prop Bets.
Largest Lead of the Game Under 16.5 Points (-120) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
One of my favorite things about the evolving landscape of prop betting is the ability to tap into different types of bets. This, of course, being one of them.
The hoopla of Brady’s return will be a spectacle. But the actual game will be close, perhaps somewhat ugly, and New England will stay competitive with one of the best teams in the league.
The deficit will never get that big.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 4 Best Prop Bets! For more NFL prop bets, check out our NFL Week 4 Player Prop Bets.
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