Cleveland and Minnesota meet up in Week 4 as a result of the NFL’s scheduling formula in which the AFC North plays the NFC North. Both finished third in their respective divisions in 2020, though the Browns made the playoffs at 11-5 and Vikings missed the playoffs at 7-9.
The Browns have been an ascending team since selecting QB Baker Mayfield first overall in 2018 and making the Divisional Round of the playoffs last year. The Vikings have been up and down the past few years, with two trips to the playoffs in the last four seasons. However, Minnesota is managing to stay competitive so far this season despite a 1-2 record, as their two losses came by a combined four points.
With another close contest likely ahead, let’s break it down and give our prediction and betting tips for this NFL Week 4 matchup in the NFL pick of the day series.
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score 20+ Points (-155) at BetMGM
For in-depth analysis on this NFL bet of the day, continue reading. Please note that all odds are current as of Friday, October 1.
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Browns vs Vikings Prediction
There is a reason the line for this game opened at Cleveland -1.5 as both teams are very evenly matched. Minnesota and Cleveland rank 7th (29 points per game) and 8th (28.7 points per game) in scoring, respectively. The Browns have the edge on defense however, ranking 8th at 20 points allowed per game, while the Vikings are ranked 20th and have allowed 26 points per game.
While the Browns’ defense brought the heat against the Chicago Bears last week with nine sacks, the Vikings’ offensive line has demonstrated the ability to keep Kirk Cousins clean, allowing only five sacks through three games.
This game could very likely turn into a shootout, with the winning team being able to make a key defensive stop or force turnovers. Entering the game, the Vikings are +1 in turnover ratio whereas the Browns are -2. Whichever team can force mistakes, field goal attempts and punts will win this game.
Prediction: Vikings 32, Browns 26
The Minnesota Vikings will have to limit the impact of a Cleveland defense anchored by Myles Garrett, who set a Browns team record with 4.5 sacks in Week 3 against the Chicago Bears. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Browns vs Vikings Best Bets
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score 20+ Points (-155) at BetMGM
Both teams are averaging near 30 points per game and the defenses haven’t shown the ability to slow down capable opposing offenses, which makes this bet a slam dunk. I expect the offenses to go back and forth, with the winner finding ways to force field-goal attempts in the red zone instead of conceding touchdowns.
I like this prop bet because it because it isn’t dependent on hitting the Over (52.5) and still has a good chance to hit even if the defenses force a few more field-goal attempts than I am expecting.
Best Bet: Vikings Moneyline (+105) at BetMGM
This is a tough bet, but it’s one that I like simply because the Vikings are playing at home. Since opening U.S. Bank Stadium in 2016, Minnesota is 26-14 at home in the regular season.
The Vikings finally figured things out on the defensive side of the ball in their home opener against a talented Seahawks team in Week 3, limiting Seattle to a season-low 17 points.
Despite being 2-6 at home in 2020, I believe the Vikings will have a bounce-back year in 2021 and build off last week’s win to improve their home record to 2-0.
The juice on this moneyline could move throughout the week, so be sure to keep an eye on the best prices across the market with our NFL gameday odds.
Best Bet: Vikings to Win by 1-6 Points (+325) at BetMGM
This fits in line with my score prediction above and gives a bigger payout than the spread or moneyline would.
I like the Vikings chances in this one, especially because RB Dalvin Cook will be one more week removed from the ankle injury that forced him to miss Week 3 and the Browns will be down CB Greg Newsome due to a calf injury.
The coaching matchup is also something to watch in this contest.
Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski is in his second year at the helm in Cleveland after leaving Minnesota, where he worked his way up to offensive coordinator in 2019 under Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer. I believe that Stefanski’s schematic advantages might not play as big of a role as they normally do for Cleveland on Sunday as his offense goes up against a defense run by his former boss.
Cleveland vs Vikings Same Game Parlay Picks
Same Game Parlay Odds: +320
- Vikings Moneyline (+105) at BetMGM
- Over 51.5 Total Points (-105) at BetMGM
- Both Teams to Score Over 19.5 Points (-175) at BetMGM
I like this parlay because it takes several of my best bets and allows you to double down and win a nice pot if this becomes a shootout like I expect.
If Minnesota can minimize mistakes, as they have so far this year, then I believe they can capitalize on the scoreboard and get back in the win column for the second straight week.
Thanks for reading our Cleveland vs Vikings Week 4 Predictions! For more NFL Week 4 betting tips, check out our NFL Week 4 Best Bets and NFL Week 4 Parlay Picks.
