Last week, I got slaughtered on props going 2-6. It was one of the worst weeks I have had in betting NFL props but I was also very close to being 5-3 or 6-2.
I am going to take a different approach this week and dig for more value as I am not happy with the results so far through Week 3.
As we head into Week 4 of the NFL season, I start to look at the impact of injuries and pay extra attention to practice reports especially the Friday ones.
You can find incredible value on players especially secondary wide receivers and tight ends if the starters are not going to play. Also, paying attention to star defensive players and cluster injuries will help you get to the pay window.
All NFL gameday odds for Week 4 player prop bets are current as of Friday, October 1, at 4 p.m. ET.
Best Bet: Derrick Henry over 24.5 rushing attempts (+100) at Caesars
For in-depth analysis on this NFL bet of the day and others, continue reading.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets to Make in Week 4
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Best NFL Player Props Week 4
Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins
➕ Mo Alie-Cox: Over 10.5 receiving yards (-110) on Caesars
➕ Mo Alie-Cox: Over 1.5 receptions (+150) on Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit on each
Cox has seen two targets in each of the Colts’ first three games, but the key here is the status of Jack Doyle. Doyle did practice Friday and is listed as questionable with a back injury.
If Doyle does not play or sees limited action, then Cox just needs to show up and he should be able to get two receptions and over 10.5 yards. NOTE – these are two separate bets, but listed under one player.
Mo Alie-Cox: Over 10.5 receiving yards (-110) on Caesars
Mo Alie-Cox: Over 1.5 receptions (+150) on Caesars
➕ Nyheim Hines: Over 23.5 receiving yards (-120) on Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit
This is also a play on Doyle not being 100%, as the Colts would then look to give Hines more targets in the passing game. He has smashed this over in two out of three games (48 and 54) but only had one reception for 17 yards against the Rams.
The Dolphins allowed James White to go for six receptions for 49 yards, Peyton Barber 3 and 31, and Kenyan Drake 3 and 33.
This is a must-win game for the Colts who are 0-3 and can write off their season if they drop to 0-4.
Nyheim Hines: Over 23.5 receiving yards (-120) on Caesars
New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans
➕ Zach Wilson: Over 226.5 passing yards (-115) on Caesars
➕ Zach Wilson: Over 19.5 pass completions (-125) on Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit on each
As bad as things have been for Wilson and the Jets the first three games of the season, you also have to look at their schedule – at Carolina, vs. New England, and at Denver.
It has been a very difficult road for Wilson, but this has also driven his prop numbers down. He has completed at least 19 passes in each of his first three games and went for 258 passing yards against the Panthers.
The Jets are live home dogs against the Titans who got Carson Wentz on two bad ankles last week. Another key to this game is the injuries to A.J. Brown and Julio Jones (hamstring) which will severely limit the Titans’ ability to move the ball on offense.
This bodes well for a closer game in which the Jets will have a chance to win.
Zach Wilson: Over 226.5 passing yards (-115) on Caesars
Zach Wilson: Over 19.5 pass completions (-125) on Caesars
➕ Ryan Tannehill: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120) at Caesars
➕ Ryan Tannehill: Under 224.5 passing yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit on each
Both Julio Jones and A.J. Brown have been ruled out this week. This will limit what Tannehill can do through the air against a Jets defense that ranks #2 in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
They have only allowed one passing touchdown in three games and under 224 passing yards to the Patriots and Broncos.
With this game being on the road, I can see the Titans going ultra-conservative with a huge dose of Derrick Henry. This will limit Tannehill in terms of passing attempts and increasing his chances to go under on touchdowns and passing yards.
Ryan Tannehill: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120) at Caesars
Ryan Tannehill: Under 224.5 passing yards (-115) at Caesars
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots
➕ Antonio Brown: Over 4.5 receptions (+115) at Caesars
WAGER 0.5 Unit
With Giovani Bernard already ruled out and Rob Gronkowski doubtful nursing sore ribs, I would look to see where the targets can be redistributed.
Gronk did practice on Friday, and you know he is motivated to play in this game at Foxboro, but I can see the Bucs using him as a decoy and only in the red zone.
Brown was activated from the COVID list on Thursday and went for five receptions and 121 yards against the Cowboys in Week 1.
Getting him back into the offense in a week where two other offensive players are either out or less than 100% seems ideal.
Antonio Brown: Over 4.5 receptions (+115) at Caesars
➕ Jakobi Myers over 63.5 receiving yards (-115) at BetMGM
WAGER 1 Unit
With James White out and the Bucs rushing defense impossible to run on, Myers should be the recipient of significant passing targets. Already at 29 targets on the season, he saw 14 last week against the Saints for 94 receiving yards.
The Bucs have allowed a league-high 348 passing yards per game and Mac Jones will be throwing a ton of short quick passing routes to keep the Bucs offense off the field.
Jakobi Myers over 63.5 receiving yards (-115) at BetMGM
Best NFL Player Prop Bets Today
➕ Javonte Williams: Over 9.5 receiving yards (-120) at DraftKings
WAGER 1.5 Units
With Melvin Gordon limited in practice with ribs and lower leg issues, I can see the Broncos leaning more on Williams this week.
While Gordon typically only sees a couple of targets, add in the increase Williams saw last week (3-for-33) and he just needs one reception to go over this prop.
Javonte Williams: Over 9.5 receiving yards (-120) at DraftKings
➕ Best Bet: Derrick Henry over 24.5 rushing attempts (+100) at Caesars
WAGER 2 Units
With both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones ruled out, the Titans will have to lean on Henry in a huge way against the Jets this week. Add in the Jets being stout against opposing quarterbacks and I can see Henry pushing 30 carries.
He has gone for 35 and 28 over the last two weeks. This correlates with my Under bets on Ryan Tannehill.
Derrick Henry over 24.5 rushing attempts (+100) at Caesars
Michael Rathburn 2021 NFL Betting
- Overall record: 8-14 (-9.93 units)
- Last week: 2-6 (-4.43 units)
- Week 2: 3-4 (-2.17 units)
- Week 1: 3-4 (-3.33 units)
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