Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski will make their highly-anticipated returns to New England in Week 4 when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit Bill Belichick’s Patriots on Sunday Night Football. This electric matchup has no shortage of betting opportunities as well, so let’s dive into some Buccaneers vs Patriots prop bets that could prove to be profitable in our NFL prop predictions and picks series.
Please note that all odds and lines are current as of Thursday, September 30.
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Buccaneers vs Patriots Prop Bets: NFL Week 4 Prop Betting Picks
Tom Brady Over 67.5 First Quarter Passing Yards (-200) at DraftKings
If you don’t know the context, this might seem like an arbitrary number for sportsbooks to post, but there’s more NFL history at stake here for Brady on Sunday night. He needs just 68 yards to eclipse Drew Brees as the NFL’s all-time passing yardage leader.
While betting on Brady to set the record in the second quarter at plus money is also tempting, I like the first quarter bet for several reasons. First, Belichick defers the coin toss every chance he gets, while Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians is more of a wild card. That means the Bucs are more likely to start with the ball, likely giving Brady multiple drives in the first quarter to get things going.
Second, Tampa Bay struggles to run the ball, ranking second-worst in the NFL at just 56.3 rushing yards per game. That’s led them to come out throwing, with Brady averaging 91.3 passing yards in the first quarter this season. New England’s defense is tough and will be well-prepared to face its former quarterback, but Brady knows its intricacies and is certainly capable of hitting the Over in the first quarter, especially if New England’s offensive woes continue.
Rob Gronkowski to Catch Tom Brady’s Record-Breaking Pass (+275) at Caesars
This one is less about analytics and more about buying into the narrative. The Bucs have plenty of pass-catchers, but why wouldn’t Brady look Gronk’s way first if he only needs a few yards to break the record? The big tight end has been one of Brady’s top targets for over a decade and has already racked up 16 catches for 184 yards and four touchdowns this year. Gronkowski is dealing with a rib injury sustained in a Week 3 loss to the Rams, however, so wait until Sunday on this one to make sure he suits up.
- Read our full Buccaneers vs Patriots predictions and best bets.
Antonio Brown Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at DraftKings
If Gronkowski doesn’t take the field on Sunday night, I like another former New England pass catcher to step up and have a big game in his absence. Sure, Brown may have only played one game for the Patriots, but he and Brady had chemistry right off the bat in New England and have taken it to another level in Tampa Bay. New England’s secondary will likely look to take away Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, leaving plenty of room for Brown to operate.
Mac Jones Over 254.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel
Mac Jones‘ passing splits through his first three career games are pretty clear. In New England’s lone win, he threw for under 200 yards as the Patriots dominated the New York Jets. In their two losses, however, Jones surpassed 270 passing yards both times.
With New England entering this game as considerable home underdogs per our NFL gameday odds, Jones will need to air it out to keep up with Tampa Bay’s high-octane offense, which currently leads the NFL in points scored. I like Jones to throw for over 300 yards, making the Over an easy choice here.
Buccaneers vs Patriots Week 4 Prop Bets
Both Teams to Score 20+ Points (+100) at Draftkings
While the Patriots have scored and allowed 20+ points just one time each this season, this game figures to be much more up-tempo than their previous contests. The Bucs have been held below 20 points only twice since the beginning of last year, so they’re pretty much a lock to hold up their end of the bargain.
While New England’s offense has struggled, they should be able to put up points against a discombobulated Tampa Bay defense that’s allowed 29.3 points per game this year — sixth-most in the NFL. The Bucs’ secondary is banged up and looks out of sorts, so the Patriots should be able to move the ball through the air. They might not reach 20 points until garbage time, but I think they’ll get there in this NFL bet of the day.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Win by 1-6 Points (+295) at DraftKings
Both sides will want to win this game desperately, especially coming off losses in Week 3 and with New England potentially fighting for its season. This game should be competitive and hard-fought given both teams’ strengths and weaknesses as well as the overall pressure surrounding it. The Buccaneers are the better team, however, and should prevail in this closely-contested affair.