Thursday Night Football gets an international twist in Week 1, with the NFL heading to Australia for the first time in regular-season history.
The Los Angeles Rams will face the San Francisco 49ers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, giving us an early NFC West showdown between two teams that reached the playoffs last season. Los Angeles advanced to the NFC Championship Game, while San Francisco reached the Divisional Round.
There should be no shortage of star power, with reigning MVP Matthew Stafford leading a Rams offense featuring Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, while Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey headline the 49ers. The matchup kicks off Thursday, Sept. 10 at 8:35 p.m. ET on Netflix.
Below, I’ll take a look at the latest 49ers vs Rams odds and make my TNF predictions for Week 1.
Updated TNF Odds Comparison
All NFL odds referenced for these TNF Week 1 predictions are current as of Sunday, Sep. 6, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
TNF Implied Score & Team Totals
Rams 26, 49ers 22.5
The Rams enter the season with the best roster in the NFL, which helps explain why oddsmakers are projecting them to score more points than the 49ers in a neutral field. Los Angeles is loaded on both sides of the ball, with Matthew Stafford leading an offense featuring Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, while the defense added Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie to an already talented group.
San Francisco still has enough offensive talent to keep this competitive, but the 26-22.5 team-total split reflects the expectation that Los Angeles has the stronger overall team entering Week 1.
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Thursday Night Football Prediction
TNF Score Prediction: Rams 24, 49ers 16
The biggest improvement for the Rams this offseason came on defense, where they added reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett and All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to an already talented group. Garrett joins a defensive front that also features Aaron Donald, while McDuffie gives Los Angeles a legitimate shutdown option in the secondary.
That upgraded defense should make life difficult for Brock Purdy and the 49ers in Week 1. Garrett can consistently disrupt the pocket, while McDuffie gives the Rams more flexibility when matching up with San Francisco’s playmakers.
Los Angeles also has enough offensive firepower to take advantage if the defense creates short fields or extra possessions. I don’t expect the 49ers to get blown out in a divisional matchup, but the Rams look like the more complete team on paper.
Look for the revamped Los Angeles defense to make an immediate impact in Australia, with the Rams pulling away for a 24-16 win.
Thursday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these Thursday Night Football bet tips and trends in mind before making your Rams vs. 49ers best bets.
- The 49ers arrived in Melbourne a full week before kickoff to acclimate, while the Rams aren’t scheduled to arrive until roughly 24 hours before the game. The dramatically different travel strategies could be a factor in the NFL’s first regular-season game in Australia.
- Aaron Donald will travel with the Rams, but his Week 1 status remains uncertain after recently coming out of retirement. Sean McVay has yet to confirm whether the three-time Defensive Player of the Year will suit up against San Francisco.
- The Rams enter the season as unusually heavy Super Bowl favorites. Los Angeles is around +500 at major sportsbooks, with the next-closest contenders around +1000, giving the Rams one of the largest gaps between a preseason favorite and the rest of the field in recent years.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets
TNF Over/Under Pick: Rams @ 49ers Under 48.5 Points (-115)
The unfamiliar setting in Australia adds another variable for both offenses, especially with the Rams arriving much later than the 49ers.
Los Angeles also looks significantly stronger on defense after adding Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie, with Aaron Donald potentially giving the unit another major boost if he plays.
That should make it harder for San Francisco to consistently sustain drives, while the 49ers still have enough defensive talent to keep the Rams from turning this into a shootout.
With the travel, unusual game environment, and improved Rams defense all pointing toward a slower matchup, I like the Under 48.5 as my NFL pick of the day for Thursday Night Football.
TNF Pick Against the Spread: Rams -3.5 (-108)
Los Angeles already had one of the league’s best offenses, and the offseason additions of Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie have the potential to transform the defense into an elite unit as well.
San Francisco is still talented enough to keep this competitive, but the Rams have the stronger roster from top to bottom and should have more ways to take control if the game is close entering the second half.
At only -3.5, I’m comfortable backing Los Angeles to win by more than four points and cover the spread in Australia.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bet
TNF Prop: Christian McCaffrey Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
McCaffrey is still one of the most dangerous offensive players in football, but his efficiency as a pure runner has started to decline compared with his peak seasons.
That makes this a difficult matchup, as he’s set to face an imposing Rams front seven that should be much tougher against the run after adding more star power to the defense.
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San Francisco can still get McCaffrey involved through the passing game, but the Rams have enough talent up front to prevent him from consistently finding big rushing lanes.
With Los Angeles likely prioritizing stopping McCaffrey and forcing Brock Purdy to beat them through the air, I like the Under on 59.5 rushing yards.
Thursday Night Football Parlay
Best TNF Same-Game Parlay (+176)
- Rams ML (-185)
- Under 48.5 (-115)
I already like Rams -3.5 as my spread pick, so using the moneyline here gives me a little protection in case Los Angeles wins a close game by three points or less.
The Rams still have the stronger roster overall, but the unusual setting in Australia and San Francisco’s earlier arrival create enough uncertainty that I don’t want every bet tied to Los Angeles covering the spread.
The Under also fits with my expectation that the Rams’ improved defense will make things difficult for Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers offense.
Combining Rams ML with Under 48.5 gives us a way to stay bullish on Los Angeles while hedging against the possibility of a narrow win.
