Thursday Night Football heads to Chicago in Week 7, with the New England Patriots visiting the Chicago Bears in an intriguing matchup between two 4-2 teams looking to strengthen their playoff positioning.
New England is riding a four-game winning streak after defeating the New York Jets 26-19, with Drake Maye continuing his impressive season. Chicago, meanwhile, improved to 4-2 with a 31-23 victory over the Atlanta Falcons, as Caleb Williams returned from a three-game absence to throw for 305 yards and a touchdown.
The Bears have one of the NFL’s most productive rushing attacks, ranking first in rushing yards per game behind D’Andre Swift. However, New England’s offensive line is dealing with significant injuries, with guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown ruled out. Chicago’s pass rush could make things difficult for Maye, especially on a short week.
The matchup kicks off Thursday, Oct. 22 at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video from Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. Below, I’ll break down the latest Patriots vs. Bears odds and make my TNF predictions for Week 7.
Updated TNF Odds Comparison
All NFL odds referenced for these TNF Week 7 predictions are current as of Wednesday, Oct. 21, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
TNF Implied Score & Team Totals
Bears 26.75, Patriots 23.75
Chicago is projected to score 26.75 points at home, while New England carries an implied total of 23.75. The three-point difference reflects expectations of a competitive matchup, with the 50.5-point total suggesting both offenses should have opportunities to put points on the board.
The Bears have one of the NFL’s most productive rushing attacks, averaging 160.7 yards per game. That’s an interesting matchup against a Patriots defense allowing just 90.5 rushing yards per contest. Caleb Williams is also coming off an impressive performance against Atlanta, throwing for 305 yards in his return from injury.
New England has offensive firepower of its own, with Drake Maye leading a passing attack averaging more than 250 yards per game. However, the Patriots will be without starting guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown, which could create problems against Chicago’s pass rush.
The 26.75-23.75 implied score suggests a relatively high-scoring game, with both quarterbacks capable of making big plays. Chicago’s rushing attack and home-field advantage give the Bears some advantages, but Maye’s ability to attack through the air could keep New England competitive throughout.
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Thursday Night Football Prediction
TNF Score Prediction: Bears 28, Patriots 24
I’m backing Chicago to win a potential shootout on Thursday night, as both teams have enough offensive firepower to put up points. The Bears have one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks, while Caleb Williams is coming off an impressive performance against Atlanta, throwing for 305 yards in his return from injury.
New England should have plenty of success offensively, too. Drake Maye has been excellent this season, and Chicago’s defense has shown it can be vulnerable through the air. I expect Maye to make several big plays, especially if the Patriots fall behind and need to throw more often.
However, New England’s offensive line injuries could be the difference. With starting guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown sidelined, the Bears should have opportunities to pressure Maye. I expect plenty of back-and-forth scoring, but Chicago’s rushing attack and home-field advantage should help the Bears pull away late.
Thursday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these Thursday Night Football betting tips and trends in mind before making your Patriots vs. Bears best bets.
- Chicago has a dominant rushing attack. The Bears average 160.7 rushing yards per game, setting up an intriguing matchup against New England’s strong run defense.
- Drake Maye could thrive in a shootout. The Patriots quarterback leads a productive passing attack and could have opportunities against a Chicago defense that has been vulnerable through the air.
- New England’s offensive line is banged up. Starting guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown are sidelined, potentially giving Chicago’s pass rush an advantage.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets
TNF Over/Under Pick: Patriots @ Bears Over 50.5 Points (-115)
I’m backing the Over in this matchup, as both teams play at a fast pace and have quarterbacks capable of putting up big numbers. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are two of the NFL’s most exciting young quarterbacks, and I expect plenty of offensive fireworks on Thursday night.
Chicago has one of the NFL’s most productive rushing attacks, averaging 160.7 yards per game. The Bears can move the ball on the ground with D’Andre Swift, but Williams gives them another dimension through the air. He threw for 305 yards against Atlanta last week, and I expect Chicago to keep its foot on the gas against New England.
The Patriots have plenty of offensive firepower, too. Maye has been excellent this season, leading a passing attack averaging more than 250 yards per game. Chicago’s defense has struggled at times against opposing quarterbacks, which could create opportunities for Maye to connect on explosive plays.
The total of 50.5 is relatively high for a Thursday night game, but I think both offenses can get there. New England’s offensive line injuries are a concern, although Maye’s mobility should help him extend plays. I’m expecting a back-and-forth shootout, with something like a 28-24 Chicago victory pushing this game Over the total.
TNF Pick Against the Spread: Bears -3 (-102)
I’m backing Chicago to cover the spread on Thursday night, as the Bears have one of the NFL’s most effective rushing attacks and should be able to move the ball consistently against New England. With Caleb Williams back under center, Chicago has the offensive balance to put plenty of points on the board.
The Bears are averaging 160.7 rushing yards per game, with D’Andre Swift leading the way. Chicago’s ability to establish the run should open up opportunities for Williams through the air, especially after he threw for 305 yards against Atlanta last week.
New England has an explosive offense of its own, led by Drake Maye, who has been excellent this season. However, the Patriots are dealing with significant injuries along their offensive line, with starting guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown sidelined. That could make it difficult for Maye to consistently operate from a clean pocket.
What gives me confidence in Chicago is its ability to control the game on the ground while still making explosive plays through the air. Swift should be heavily involved, and Williams has shown he can take advantage when defenses focus too much on stopping the run.
My biggest concern is Maye’s ability to keep New England competitive, particularly against a Chicago secondary that has been vulnerable at times. However, laying just three points at home feels reasonable, and I expect the Bears to generate enough offense to win by more than a field goal.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bet
TNF Prop: A.J. Brown Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
I’m backing A.J. Brown to finish Over 71.5 receiving yards on Thursday night against a Chicago defense that could struggle to contain New England’s top deep threat.
The matchup is particularly appealing because the Bears frequently use single-high safety looks and mix in man coverage. That creates opportunities for receivers who can win one-on-one matchups, and Brown has the size, speed, and physicality to take advantage. He doesn’t need a huge number of catches to clear this total.
Brown is also coming off a frustrating performance against the Jets, catching just three of 10 targets. However, the opportunities were there, and I expect Drake Maye to continue looking his way, especially with Romeo Doubs sidelined by a shoulder injury.
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Chicago’s secondary has been vulnerable, particularly on early downs. Jaylon Johnson remains the Bears’ top cornerback, but he’s allowed a 73.1% completion rate in coverage this season. Brown has the ability to win downfield against Johnson or whichever defender Chicago puts across from him.
My biggest concern is New England’s banged-up offensive line, which could limit Maye’s time in the pocket. However, I expect the Patriots to take several shots downfield in a potential shootout. One or two explosive catches could put Brown well on his way to clearing 71.5 yards.
Thursday Night Football Parlay
Best TNF Same-Game Parlay (+186)
- Bears ML (-155)
- Over 50.5 (-115)
I’m already backing Chicago to cover the three-point spread, but taking the Bears moneyline in this same-game parlay gives me some insurance if they win by only one or two points.
Chicago has one of the NFL’s most productive rushing attacks, with D’Andre Swift leading the way. Caleb Williams is also coming off a 305-yard passing performance against Atlanta, giving the Bears plenty of ways to move the ball. I expect Chicago to score consistently, especially playing at home.
The second leg is Over 50.5 points, which I also like as a straight bet. Both teams play at a fast pace, and Drake Maye has been excellent for New England this season. The Patriots should have opportunities to move the ball through the air against a Chicago secondary that has been vulnerable at times.
My biggest concern is New England’s offensive line, which is dealing with injuries to both starting guards. However, Maye’s mobility should help him extend plays, and I expect both quarterbacks to generate explosive plays throughout the night.
Combining Bears ML with Over 50.5 fits my expectation of a high-scoring, competitive game. A 28-24 Chicago victory would cash both legs, even though it wouldn’t cover the three-point spread.
