For the first time since 2005, no member of the “Big Three” — Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal -- will compete in the Australian Open men’s final.
That means we’ll be set to crown either a first-time or second-time slam champion, with young Jannik Sinner entering the deserving favorite thanks to his dominance down under this month.
Keep reading for my match pick for the men’s Aussie Open Finals, which take place Sunday, Jan. 28, at 3:30 a.m. ET. (Place your wagers at our top Australian Open betting sites.)
Australian Open Men’s Final Odds
Tennis odds used for this Grand Slam report are current as of Jan. 27 at 11:00 a.m. ET at DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Jannik Sinner (-310)
- Daniil Medvedev (+250)
Australian Open Men’s Final Prediction
Jannik Sinner in 4 Sets
It sounds crazy to write this, but at the moment, Jannik Sinner is the best tennis player in the world. He’s lost just twice in nearly 20 matches since he was bounced from the US Open in the fourth round last year, and in that time, he’s grown leaps and bounds both mentally and physically.
Sinner’s stamina on the court has been noticeably better in the last few months – something that has long been a question mark with the 22-year-old – and he’s shown incredible resilience in the face of some very difficult challenges in recent rounds against Karen Khachanov, Andrey Rublev and World No. 1 Novak Djokovic.
Sinner has done the work over the last two seasons to improve the pace and accuracy of his serve, and his all-world power from the back of the court has only gotten better. He is hitting through the defenses of some of the best in the world, and that shouldn’t change against Medvedev – a player he has beaten in their last three meetings.
Two factors here will tip the scales drastically in favor of the Italian. The first is the fact that he’s spent almost seven hours less on court than his opponent here, and while most of the talk will be about how fatigued Medvedev is, we should also keep in mind that this will be the freshest we’ve ever seen Sinner late in a slam given he’s wasted so much energy over the years battling in the early rounds of Grand Slams with players who don’t belong on the court with him.
The second is the serve of Medvedev, which lacks the same consistency and bite that elevated him to elite status in the men’s game. It returned in the latter three sets he played against Alexander Zverev, but much of that had to do with the German’s stamina levels as he let plenty of first serves go without much effort.
Sinner is decidedly the better player here, and he should win as a result.
Australian Open Men’s Final Best Prop Bets
Under 38.5 Games (-115) * DraftKings Sportsbook
The inclination for many bettors in a late-stage match at a Grand Slam is to take the over on total games, buying into the hype of a matchup between two big names. I think the contrarian angle is very much in play here, and I see this match as a quick one for Sinner, assuming he doesn’t succumb to the pressure of the moment – something he’s yet to do over the last two weeks.
Sinner has not only owned Medvedev in each of their last two meetings but dating back to their ATP Finals matchup back in 2021, he’s played Medvedev incredibly well, even without a level that matches the one we’ve seen out of him in Melbourne.
The matches Medvedev has been able to keep close or win over the last year plus have all come in very fast conditions, helping his serve, and with a bit slower court speeds here later in the day coupled with some inconsistency on serve, I don’t think this meeting will be an overly tight one.
Sinner should win this in three sets on paper, and I think he will run away with one of the first two sets. You can expect a response from Medvedev at some point, which is why I like the added security of the total – which could easily cash in a four-set match – but with tired legs, his other-worldly defensive skills shouldn’t be up to par with what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing out of him.
Jannik Sinner Under 41.5 Winners (-120) * DraftKings Sportsbook
Oddsmakers don’t typically offer props like this over the course of a tennis season, but for Grand Slam finals, they decided to get a bit exotic with their offerings. With that, I don’t believe they’ve hung a good number here on Sinner’s winner count.
Sure, Medvedev may be a step slow here with how fatigued he is, but he’s still going to be able to get a racquet on a ton of balls and probably rack up a good deal of forced errors as opposed to watching the ball go by for a winner. Sinner’s yet to hit this number more than once during the tournament, and the match he did it in was against Karen Khachanov, who goes for slim margins and puts himself in a compromising position if he, himself, doesn’t earn himself a winner from the back of the court.
This should be a quick match, and with Sinner hitting just 31 winners against a similarly gifted defender in Novak Djokovic during the semi-finals, this will soar under the total. Helping matters should be the fact that Medvedev is an incredibly hard man to ace with his deep return position, which will cut down on Sinner’s service winners as well.
