Over the last four seasons, Notre Dame had 10 or more regular-season wins. With a 9.5 regular-season win total for this season juiced to the Under, most college football analysts expect the Fighting Irish to have less fight in them this season.
Last year, Notre Dame had a win total of 8.5 and had 11 regular-season wins. The big difference between last year’s Fighting Irish team and this year is that not only have several starters left the program, but longtime Head Coach Brian Kelly left for LSU.
In addition to a new cast of characters, the other wrinkle that makes Notre Dame hard to analyze each season is that they are an independent team that picks its own schedule. This season’s ND schedule features three likely AP Top 25 teams in Ohio State, North Carolina, and Clemson, and several marginal Power Five teams like Syracuse, Boston College, and California.
With a high win total and a few tough games, the question is whether Notre Dame can hang with the powerhouse schools on its schedule to either compete for the College Football Playoff or at least win 10 regular-season games.
Notre Dame Odds 2022: National Championship & Win Total
All Notre Dame NCAAF betting odds are current as of Monday, May 23 at 1 p.m. ET at FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Win National Championship: +8000
- Win Total: 9.5 (Over +140, Under -170)
Notre Dame Schedule
| Game | Opponent | Home/Away | Spread | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio St | Away | 12.5 | 17.40% |
| 2 | Marshall | Home | -19.5 | 98.40% |
| 3 | California | Home | -18.5 | 96.20% |
| 4 | North Carolina | Away | -9.5 | 75.50% |
| 5 | BYU | Neutral | -10 | 77.40% |
| 6 | Stanford | Home | -18 | 95.00% |
| 7 | UNLV | Home | -33 | 99.21% |
| 8 | Syracuse | Away | -12 | 81.60% |
| 9 | Clemson | Home | -3 | 57.40% |
| 10 | Navy | Away | -21.5 | 98.52% |
| 11 | Boston College | Home | -20 | 98.43% |
| 12 | USC | Away | -8 | 73.80% |
Notre Dame Key Games
Notre Dame at Ohio State (9/3/2022):
- OSU Model Projected Line: Ohio State -12.5
- Game of the Year Line: Ohio State -14.5 at BetWay
- Notre Dame goes Over 9.5 win total in 84.1% of simulations where they beat Ohio State.
Notre Dame at North Carolina (9/24/2022):
- Model Projected Line: Notre Dame -9.5
- Notre Dame goes Under 9.5 win total in 70.7% of simulations where they lose to North Carolina.
Clemson at Notre Dame (11/5/2022):
- Model Projected Line: Notre Dame -3
- Game of the Year Line: Clemson -2
- Notre Dame goes Under 9.5 win total in 61.6% of simulations where they lose to Clemson.
- Notre Dame goes Over 9.5 win total in 74.8% of simulations where they beat Clemson.
Notre Dame Win Total Bet
Notre Dame Over 9.5 Wins (+140) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Wager: 1 Unit
Notre Dame may have a new head coach in Marcus Freeman, but if Freeman is a downgrade from Kelly, it won’t show in Freeman’s first season. Most Fighting Irish starters are Kelly recruits, and Freeman has shown himself to be a strong recruiter in his short period with Notre Dame.
Notre Dame is blessed to be able to set its own schedule. Outside of Ohio State, North Carolina, BYU, Clemson, and USC, Notre Dame is likely to be favored by at least two touchdowns in all their games. Against USC, BYU, and North Carolina, Notre Dame should win by about a touchdown.
What Notre Dame’s 9.5 win total is likely to come down to is a November matchup with Clemson. Most of my game projections for all 131 FBS teams closely resemble the game of the year odds offered by many sportsbooks where bettors can bet on games months in advance.
For the Clemson game, I have Notre Dame as a three-point favorite, while BetWay and DraftKings have them as a two-point underdog.
In 61.6% of my season simulations where Notre Dame loses to Clemson, Notre Dame goes Under their season win total. On the other side of the coin, the Fighting Irish go Over their season win total in 74.8% of my simulations where they beat Clemson.
With a hefty payout of +140 on Notre Dame’s season win total Over, I would rather back their season win total Over than bet on them in advance as two-point home underdogs against Clemson.
