In 2021, the Michigan Wolverines vastly exceeded expectations.
Not only did they eclipse their 7.5 season win total with an 11-1 regular-season record, but they won the Big Ten Conference as +2500 pre-season underdogs.
This season, the Wolverines have just 10 starters returning from last year’s team that lost to Georgia in the College Football Playoff. This is the fewest number of returning starters in the Big Ten East and the third-fewest in the conference.
Most importantly, only three defensive players will return next season for Michigan. This is a major blow for head coach Jim Harbaugh, as last year’s Wolverines team allowed the sixth-fewest opponent points per play in the country. They also allowed only 17.4 points per game, which was the seventh-fewest in the country.
With a 9.5 win total, a tough schedule, and many new faces, there is certainly a question of whether or not Michigan will meet expectations this year.
Michigan Odds 2022: National Championship & Win Total
All Michigan NCAAF betting odds are current as of May 19, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at Caesars Sportsbook.
- Win National Championship: +4000
- Win Total: 9.5 (Over -115 / Under -115)
- Win Big Ten: +550
Michigan 2022 Schedule
| Game | Opponent | Home/Away | Spread | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado St | Home | -28 | 98.91% |
| 2 | Hawaii | Home | -31.5 | 99.12% |
| 3 | UConn | Home | -48 | 100% |
| 4 | Maryland | Home | -20 | 98.43% |
| 5 | Iowa | Away | -6 | 66.40% |
| 6 | Indiana | Away | -16.5 | 89.10% |
| 7 | Penn St | Home | -8.5 | 74.60% |
| 8 | Michigan St | Home | -11 | 79.90% |
| 9 | Rutgers | Away | -18.5 | 96.20% |
| 10 | Nebraska | Home | -16 | 88.60% |
| 11 | Illinois | Home | -25.5 | 98.76% |
| 12 | Ohio St | Away | +9.5 | 24.50% |
Michigan Key Games
Michigan at Iowa (10/1/2022)
- Model Projected Line: Michigan -6
- Game of the Year Line: Michigan -4 at FanDuel
- Michigan goes Under 9.5 win total in 47.6% of simulations where they lose to Iowa.
Penn State at Michigan (10/15/2022)
- Model Projected Line: Michigan -8.5
- Game of the Year Line: Michigan -6.5
- Michigan goes Under 9.5 win total in 51.6% of simulations where they lose to Penn State.
Michigan at Ohio State (11/26/2022)
- Model Projected Line: Ohio State -9.5
- Game of the Year Line: Ohio State -13.5
- Michigan goes Over 9.5 win total in 70.2% of simulations where they beat Ohio State.
Michigan Win Total Bet
Michigan Over 9.5 Wins (+125) at FanDuel
If you combine the Over (+125 on FanDuel) and the Under (-115 on Caesars), you could randomly pick a side on Michigan’s win total and have an expectation of making a profit.
Even with a weaker team than last year, betting on Michigan to have Over 9.5 wins is a great bet to make. Outside of their rivalry game against Ohio State in Columbus, I’m projecting Michigan to be favored in every game this season. In the unlikely but plausible event they beat Ohio State, they’ll go over their win total in 70.2% of my simulations.
Outside of Ohio State, both Iowa and Penn State present the toughest tests for Michigan. On the road against the Hawkeyes, the Wolverines have a 66.4% chance of winning what should be a tough rematch of the Big Ten Championship Game.
Against Penn State, Michigan lucked out by playing them at home this season where they should be favored by around a touchdown.
Outside of those three games, Michigan will be favored by almost two touchdowns in all of their other Big Ten games and will be at least four-touchdown favorites in their three non-conference games.
At plus money, the over is worth a bet.
