In 2021, Michigan State was one of the biggest surprises in the Big Ten.
With a win total set at only five wins, Michigan State exceeded expectations with 10 regular-season wins. With the Spartans ranked 16th in ESPN’s power ratings, and likely to be in the AP Preseason Top 25, they are going to be one of the most popular preseason bets.
This season, the Spartans return nine of 11 starters from last year’s team that allowed only .319 points per play - the 27th best in the country.
The issue for MSU is that they play in the Big Ten and have a non-conference game against Washington. With few cupcakes on the Spartans schedule, they must beat strong teams in order to have eight or more wins.
With a 7.5 win total - and a tough schedule - the question is if Michigan State will have a significant regression from last year’s performance.
Michigan State Odds 2022: National Championship & Win Total
All Michigan State NCAAF betting odds are current as of Monday, May 23 at 10 a.m. ET at Caesars Sportsbook
- Win National Championship: +7500
- Win Total: 7.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Win Big Ten: +2500
Michigan State Schedule
| Week | Opponent | Home/Away | Spread | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Michigan | Home | -17.5 | 93.70% |
| 2 | Akron | Home | -42 | 99.75% |
| 3 | Washington | Away | -3.5 | 60.60% |
| 4 | Minnesota | Home | -6 | 66.40% |
| 5 | Maryland | Away | -6.5 | 67.70% |
| 6 | Ohio St | Home | 11 | 20.10% |
| 7 | Wisconsin | Home | -2 | 53.40% |
| 8 | Michigan | Away | 11 | 20.10% |
| 9 | Illinois | Away | -12 | 81.60% |
| 10 | Rutgers | Home | -15.5 | 88.10% |
| 11 | Indiana | Home | -14.5 | 86.80% |
| 12 | Penn St | Away | 5.5 | 34.90% |
Michigan State Key Games
Ohio State at Michigan State (10/8/2022) & Michigan State at Michigan (10/29/2022):
- OSU Model Projected Line: Ohio State -11
- Game of the Year Line: Ohio State -11.5 at BetWay
- Michigan Model Projected Line: Michigan -11
- Game of the Year Line: Michigan -8.5 at BetWay
- Michigan State goes Under 7.5 win total in 53.6% of simulations where they lose to Ohio State and Michigan.
Wisconsin at Michigan State (10/15/2022):
- Model Projected Line: Michigan State -2
- Game of the Year Line: Michigan State -2 at BetWay
- Michigan State goes Under 7.5 win total in 59.4% of simulations where they lose to Wisconsin.
Michigan State at Penn State (11/26/2022):
- Model Projected Line: Penn State -5.5
- Game of the Year Line: Penn State -6
- Michigan State goes Under 7.5 win total in 52.7% of simulations where they lose to Penn State.
Michigan State Win Total Bet
Michigan State Under 7.5 Wins (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Wager: 1 Unit
My own numbers are in line with the win totals being offered on Michigan State, as they are projected to win 7.7 games. Despite my projections, the Spartans should go under their win total this year.
Last year, MSU was one of the luckiest NCAAF teams. Despite an average scoring margin of only +4.8, Michigan State had a 10-2 regular-season record. Additionally, the only games where Michigan State played a better team were against Michigan and Ohio State.
This season, the Spartans should lose to Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. In four games (Washington, Minnesota, Maryland, and Wisconsin), I project MSU as favored by less than a touchdown.
With a tough schedule and an expected regression, I expect Michigan State to barely limp into a bowl game this season.
