Alabama is a perennial College Football Playoff contender, and it is boring as a fan. But, this season, with a regular-season win total of 11, the Crimson Tide is the odds-on favorite to win the National Championship.
Alabama has had 11 or more regular-season wins in 10 of the last 11 seasons. With only 12 regular-season games each year, this is no small feat.
With my model projecting the Crimson Tide to be favored by at least two touchdowns in nine of 12 games, they could easily have an undefeated regular-season record. In the three games where they are not expected to be favored by at least two touchdowns, I have them favored by at least 10 points.
Last season Alabama’s only losses were a regular-season upset from a Texas A&M team that underperformed in the National Championship game against Georgia.
With a win total of 11, the question is if Alabama can go undefeated during the regular season.
Alabama Odds 2022: National Championship & Win Total
All Alabama NCAAF betting odds are current as of 5/26 at 11 a.m. ET at Caesars Sportsbook.
- Win National Championship: +200
- Win Total: 11 (Over -140, Under +110)
- Win SEC: -140
Alabama Schedule
| Game | Opponent | Home/Away | Spread | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah St | Home | -32.5 | 99.2% |
| 2 | Texas | Away | -10.5 | 79.3% |
| 3 | ULM | Home | -47 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Vanderbilt | Home | -45 | 99.9% |
| 5 | Arkansas | Away | -25 | 98.7% |
| 6 | Texas A&M | Home | -17.5 | 93.7% |
| 7 | Tennessee | Away | -16.5 | 89.1% |
| 8 | Mississippi St | Home | -22 | 98.6% |
| 9 | LSU | Away | -13.5 | 83.5% |
| 10 | Ole Miss | Away | -11.5 | 80.6% |
| 11 | Austin Peay | Home | -47 | 100.0% |
| 12 | Auburn | Home | -29.5 | 99.0% |
Alabama Key Games:
Alabama at Texas (10/8/2022)
- Texas Model Projected Line: Alabama -10.5
- Game of the Year Line: Alabama -14 at BetWay
- Alabama pushes 11 win total in 53.8% of simulations where they lose to Texas.
- Alabama goes Over 11 win total in 54% of simulations where they beat Texas.
Alabama at LSU (11/5/2022):
- LSU Model Projected Line: -13.5 Alabama
- Game of the Year Line: -14.5 Alabama at BetWay
- Alabama pushes 11 win total in 51.6% of simulations where they lose to LSU.
- Alabama goes Over 11 win total in 51.3% of simulations where they beat LSU.
Alabama at Ole Miss (11/12/2022):
- Ole Miss Model Projected Line: -11.5 Alabama
- Game of the Year Line: -13.5 Alabama
- Alabama pushes 11 win total in 51.9% of simulations where they lose to Ole Miss.
- Alabama goes Over 11 win total in 53.7% of simulations where they beat Ole Miss.
Alabama Win Total Bet
Alabama Over 10.5 Wins (-225) at PointsBet Sportsbook
Alabama Over 11 Wins (-140) at Caesars Sportsbook
Depending on which sportsbook you use, you get a wildly different win total for Alabama. Some sportsbooks have them at 11.5, PointsBet has them at 10.5 with the Over heavily juiced, and the consensus price is 11 wins at Caesars and other books.
Over 10.5 wins at -225 at PointsBet is the best value of all the win total bets based on my 25,000 simulations of Alabama’s season. Still, most bettors wouldn’t want to bet $45 now to potentially get $20 in December when the regular season is over.
For bettors who want a better payout, over 11 wins at -140 (betting $28 to get $20) is still a good bet even though it has a lower expected value than over 10.5 wins at -225.
Even with only 12 regular-season games, Alabama should surpass their win total. They are heavy favorites in all regular-season games, with their toughest tests against Texas, Ole Miss, and LSU, where Alabama should be favored by between 10 and 13.5 points.
The biggest question for the Crimson Tide will be if they can beat Georgia in a probable SEC Championship game, but luckily, they avoid them during the regular season.
