NBA Finals MVP Odds & Prediction 2024

Last Updated: May 30, 2023

The 2023 NBA Finals are set to get underway this Thursday, June 1, between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat. Denver, the West’s No. 1 seed, will take on Miami, which became the second No. 8 seed to reach the NBA Finals in league history.

Unsurprisingly, some of today’s greatest players will take the floor in this series. Nikola Jokić, a two-time MVP, and Jimmy Butler, one of the most dazzling playoff performers of all time, lead the list.

They’re the likely candidates to be named this year’s NBA Finals MVP, but who else can we count on as potential winners?

Here are the latest 2023 NBA Finals MVP odds.

2023 NBA Finals MVP Odds

Track line movement for the 2023 NBA Finals MVP with our odds widget:

Caesars Sportsbook provides NBA lines for the 2023 NBA Finals MVP, which are current as of Tuesday, May 30, at 10 a.m. ET.

  • Nikola Jokić (-325)
  • Jimmy Butler (+340)
  • Jamal Murray (+800)
  • Bam Adebayo (+4000)
  • Caleb Martin (+4500)
  • Michael Porter Jr. (+10000)
  • Aaron Gordon (+20000)
  • Kyle Lowry (+25000)
  • Gabe Vincent (+30000)
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (+30000)
  • Bruce Brown (+30000)
  • Kevin Love (+50000)
  • Duncan Robinson (+50000)
  • Max Strus (+50000)
  • Jeff Green (+50000)

2023 NBA Finals MVP Best Bet

Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (-325)

Jokić is the top candidate to receive the Bill Russell Award, and for good reason. On top of being the best player in the series, he’s also suiting up for the Nuggets, who are heavily favored to win — hence Jokić’s (-325) odds.

With that said, this may still be the best bet you can make before the series begins. Jokić has dominated his way to the NBA Finals, averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists through 15 playoff games. The seven-footer is also connecting on over 47% of his three-point attempts.

Jokić was hardly held in check in his two wins over Miami during the regular season, and I’m expecting more of the same from him in his first trip to the NBA Finals. Lock him in as your NBA Finals MVP with your NBA bet of the day.

2023 NBA Finals MVP Favorites

Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat (+340)

Should the Heat score yet another upset, Butler would likely be in line to receive his first NBA Finals MVP trophy. Widely regarded for his tenacity and underdog mentality, Butler is one of the few players out there who could genuinely propel this Miami team to a title.

The opportunity is there, too. Denver will almost certainly have trouble containing him, and it wasn’t long ago that Butler averaged a herculean 37.6 points per game in the Heat’s first-round upset of the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks.

The odds on this prop reflect that Miami is a significant underdog in the NBA Finals odds, but I never feel comfortable betting against Butler. With that in mind, I’d say this is worth a sprinkle.

Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets (+800)

Murray had a historic Western Conference Finals in which he averaged 32.5 points per game on .527/.405/.950 shooting splits. The 26-year-old guard is continuing to prove why he’s worthy of All-Star consideration, and now, being part of the NBA Finals MVP conversation as well.

It certainly helps that Denver will have home-court advantage in the NBA Finals, as four of Murray’s five best scoring performances in these playoffs have come at Ball Arena. However, he failed to impress in his lone meeting with the Heat this season, scoring 14 points on nine shots.

This race is likely too top-heavy to consider betting on Murray, but if the Nuggets go on to win, he’ll be a big reason why.

2023 NBA Finals MVP Contenders

Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat (+4000)

As the centerpiece of Miami’s defense, Adebayo has an enormous responsibility in this series. Denver is by far the most efficient offense that the Heat have encountered thus far, and Jokić presents perhaps the most difficult individual matchup in the NBA today.

Looking back at their most recent meetings, Adebayo has hardly deterred Jokić from executing on offense. Dating back to 2021, the Joker has averaged 22.2 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 8.5 assists in six games against Miami on .635/.417/.800 shooting splits.

It’s going to take a masterful defensive effort from Adebayo to slow Jokić down and establish himself as a top candidate for this award, and I simply don’t see that happening.

Caleb Martin, Miami Heat (+4500)

Martin nearly stole the Eastern Conference Finals MVP from Butler, earning four of a possible nine votes. The 27-year-old wing averaged 19.3 points per game and shot 48.9% from three-point range in Miami’s 4-3 win over the Boston Celtics, making himself a household name in the process.

Sportsbooks have since given him the respect he deserves, slotting him at fifth on the list of NBA Finals MVP favorites. And while that placement is certainly valid, I wouldn’t suggest sprinkling anything on him here.

Not only has Denver been terrific against the three in these playoffs, but the Nuggets also know they need to be more aware of Martin now — a luxury that wasn’t afforded by the Celtics before their series began. I’m not saying he won’t play well, but an NBA Finals MVP is likely well out of reach.

2023 NBA Finals MVP Sleepers

Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets (+10000)

Porter’s three-point shooting has been key in Denver’s run to the NBA Finals. The 24-year-old wing has connected on 40.8% of his looks from deep thus far, and he’s taking roughly seven per game.

That ability will remain essential to the Nuggets’ success on the grand stage. The Heat have been great against the three in the playoffs, most notably limiting the Celtics to just 16-of-77 shooting from three-point range in Games 6 and 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

However, unless Porter is the only one sinking triples against Miami, Finals MVP honors seem like a stretch.

Bruce Brown, Denver Nuggets (+30000)

If a bench player is to win NBA Finals MVP in this series, it’ll be Brown. Denver’s do-it-all swingman has been vital for the Nuggets thus far, and he’s come up with some strong performances when needed.

His best showing of the postseason came in Game 5 against the Phoenix Suns, when he logged 25 points and five rebounds in just 26 minutes of action. He’s proven capable of filling up virtually every category of the stat sheet as well, and he’s someone who excels at the little things.

I still wouldn’t count on it happening, but don’t be surprised if he outplays his position on this list.


Garrett Chorpenning

Garrett Chorpenning is the Lead NBA Editor for The Game Day. His previous work includes covering the LA Clippers for Sports Illustrated and FanSided. He graduated from Ball State University in 2021.

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