The Royals are continually one of the better-run franchises in the majors. They’ve had a few down years – five straight losing seasons at that – but that was following a World Series championship and consisted of a rebuild.
That rebuild is beginning to bear fruit. KC has a top-10 farm system led by Bobby Witt Jr., the favorite for AL Rookie of the Year. Plus, Salvador Perez continues to be the one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball.
But not all the pieces are in place. KC was still bottom 10 last season in wOBA and wOBA allowed, and the pitching staff was particularly bad. For the sixth straight season, the Royals are being valued as a sub-.500 team.
Will KC exceed expectations? Or should we continue fading the Royals and their players?
Royals Top Betting Odds 2022
Kansas City Royals MLB betting odds are current as of March 31, 2022, at Caesars Sportsbook.
- World Series Winners (+10000)
- Win American League pennant (+5000)
- Win American League Central title (+1400)
- 2022 Win Total Over/Under: 75.5 (-110)
The Royals are being valued as a 75-win team with the longest odds to win the AL Central. That’s probably fair, considering the Royals don’t have any big names in the rotation or in the bullpen.
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Royals Futures Bets 2022
Royals: To Win UNDER 75.5 Games (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.5 Units
There is really no projected value on either side of Kansas City’s win total. But if you had to bet one side, I’d look towards the Under.
The ZIPS, PECOTA, and Davenport projections all have the Royals staying Under this number, if only slightly.
It’s hard to see how the lineup will pan out, as there are too many unanswered questions. Albeit unlikely, maybe Bobby Witt Jr. won’t pan out? Is Salvador Perez finally going to see age-related regression?
We do know the Royals will give up plenty of runs on the mound. I’d lean the Under.
Royals Player Prop Bets 2022
Bobby Witt Jr.: To Win 2022 AL Rookie of the Year (+300) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.5 Units
This isn’t the most value-laden pick, but Witt is as close to a lock for AL Rookie of the Year as you’ll see.
He’s a five-plus tool player who slashed .285/.352/.581 in Triple-A last season while knocking 17 homers in 62 games. The projection market has him posting a 108 wRC+ with 25 stolen bases while playing above-average defense at a prime position.
He’s going to be the best player on the Royals the moment he makes his MLB debut in April. It’s going to be hard for sportswriters not to vote for him.
Salvador Perez: To Lead 2022 MLB in Home Runs (+3000) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.1 Units
After knocking 48 dingers last year, Perez probably won’t go thermonuclear on the long ball again this season.
But most projections have him hitting more than 35, and some even project him hitting 40 or more. He’s going to be in the race all season long, and we’re getting his odds at 30-to-1.
Moreover, Perez is the best offensive option on the roster outside of Witt. He’ll need to swing for the fences to create runs for his team.
Additionally, Perez went with more of a three-true-outcome approach last season, as his walk rate and strikeout rate both hit career highs (4.2 BB%, 25.6 K%). Therefore, I’m expecting him to swing harder than he has in his career, even as he’s reached the other side of 30.
Adalberto Mondesi: To Lead 2022 MLB in Stolen Bases (+250) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.1 Units
There’s probably no value here, but if you’re targeting another Royal for a season-long player prop bet, Mondesi is worth a look.
He’s been marred by injuries, but has stolen 39 bases in 94 games over the last two seasons. Projections have him stealing 50 or more bases this season, which is far more than any other player.
He has a great jump and ranks in the 85th percentile of players in sprint speed. He’ll snag bases, hopefully enough to get past Starling Marte.
