Fresh off an 89-win season and their first playoff series win in more than a decade, the San Diego Padres should have their sights set on the ultimate prize in 2023.
San Diego came three wins shy of the World Series, falling to the eventual NL champion Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS. But after signing five-time Silver Slugger Xander Bogaerts, plus a full season of superstar outfielder Juan Soto and the likely return of star Fernando Tatis, Jr. to their lineup, the Padres are locked and loaded for 2023.
Let’s take a look at San Diego’s 2023 outlook.
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Padres Top Betting Odds 2023
Padres MLB betting odds are current as of March 6, 2023 from Caesars Sportsbook.
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- Win World Series: (+1000)
- Win National League pennant: (+550)
- Win NL West title: (+130)
- Win Total: Over 94 Wins (-110)/Under 94 Wins (-110)
San Diego has the fourth-shortest odds of any NL team to win the World Series and to win the pennant despite the fact it knocked off both the Mets and Dodgers in the playoffs last season. Aside from the Mets and Dodgers, San Diego also trails the Atlanta Braves (+500) for NL pennant odds.
The Padres reached the NLCS on the back of their outstanding pitching, notably aces Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, who each won two playoff games. San Diego scored only 705 runs, the eighth-most in the NL, despite an MVP-caliber year from Manny Machado (.298/.366/.531, 32 HR, 102 RBI, 100 runs scored).
But the 2023 Padres should be a return to Slam Diego. With Bogaerts, Machado, and Soto, plus Tatis’ return in late April after he finishes serving an 80-game PED suspension, the Padres have arguably the deepest lineup in the NL and should tax pitchers of all calibers.
2023 MLB Futures Odds
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Padres Futures Bets 2023
Below you’ll find the top Padres futures bets for the 2023 season.
Padres Win the World Series (+1000) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Padres reached MLB’s final four a season ago, and there’s no reason they can’t again in 2023. If you believe a team is talented enough to get to the championship-round series, you have to also believe it can win the whole thing.
San Diego’s pitching staff is absolutely championship-caliber, especially if Snell is pitching the way he did in the postseason. No. 3 starter Joe Musgrove is fearless, as he proved by shutting out the Mets over seven innings of 1-hit ball in Game 3 of the Wild Card series in Flushing.
Plus, with Josh Hader and an unheralded bullpen, San Diego looks awesome in every facet of the game.
Padres Win the NL Pennant (+550) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Padres got over the mental hurdle of defeating the Dodgers, which is likely what cost them to lose steam in the NLCS against the Phillies. The NL may be more stacked this season since the Mets, Braves, and Phillies made major additions, but so too is San Diego, especially offensively.
I’m not sure San Diego can win the NL West, with the behemoth Dodgers there and built to withstand the long haul of a 162-game season. But San Diego can absolutely win the NL if everything breaks right this season.
Padres Win Total Under 94 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
It’s wild to believe San Diego can win the World Series but not eclipse 94 victories. But San Diego has only surpassed that win total once, in the dream 1998 season, in 54 seasons.
That’s not to say the Padres can’t do so in 2023. But the more likely scenario is for San Diego to win between 90-92 then get into the postseason and wreak havoc.
Padres Player Prop Bets 2023
Juan Soto NL MVP (+450) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Three of the top-six in MVP odds are on the Padres, which may not bode well for any of the players actually winning the award. Still, Soto has never won the MVP, which may make him “due" among voters, and should be poised for a monster year with the incredible lineup protection around him in San Diego.
Soto only posted a .778 OPS during his 52-game tenure with the Padres last season and is prone to pass the proverbial baton by walking if he doesn’t see pitches to hit — he’s had 135 walks in each of the past two seasons. He should see more pitches with Machado and Tatis behind him, though.
Still, if you think Soto won’t put the Padres on his back, Machado (+1200) and Tatis (+1400) are good bets, as well.
How to Bet Padres Moneylines
Betting moneylines is the most simple way of wagering on MLB games. You simply pick which team will win in a given day, and if the team you chose is victorious, you win your wager.
Odds may seem daunting but aren’t once you get familiar. For instance, if the Padres are a -225 favorite to defeat the Rockies, you’d need to bet $22.50 to win $10 or gain $0.44 profit per dollar bet.
If the Padres were a +170 underdog against the Dodgers, you’d win $17 on a $10 bet or $1.70 per dollar wagered if San Diego pulled off the upset.
Odds evolve each day depending on the Padres’ matchup and pitcher, so there’s always a new chance to get value.
How to Bet Padres Run Line
Run-line betting is the MLB version of wagering on the spread. In most MLB games, the spread is 1.5 runs, which means the favorite must win by at least two runs and the underdog must either lose by one run or win outright.
If the Padres are a 1.5-run favorite over the Giants, the run line may look like this: Padres -1.5 (+100) vs Giants +1.5 (-120). In that scenario, San Diego would need to win by two-plus runs for the bet to hit.
If the Padres were an underdog against the Braves, the run line may look like this: Padres +1.5 (-130) vs Braves -1.5 (+115). In this game, a Padres win or one-run loss would cash.
How to Bet Padres Over/Unders
If you’re unsure about the Padres’ chances of covering the run line and don’t love their moneyline odds, you can bet the total.
In MLB totals betting, sportsbooks offer a predetermined number, usually about eight, then empower users to bet whether there will be more (over) or less (under) runs than that number in the game.
If Darvish or Snell are pitching, the under is usually a solid bet, particularly since they are usually facing the opponents’ best. If there is an opener, or the San Diego opponent is facing off against an inferior pitcher, the over is a solid wager, especially with the deep Padres lineup.
Typically the odds for over/unders are between +100 and -120, so it’s a more consistent betting option too.
