Padres Odds & Predictions | 2022 MLB Playoff Futures & Award Props

Posted: Mar 29, 2022Last updated: Mar 29, 2022

The San Diego Padres were offseason darlings last year, and World Series Championship aspirations accompanied them into the regular season. Unfortunately, the offseason buzz amounted to a 79-83 record, no postseason, and a finish closer to the fourth-place Colorado Rockies than the division-winning San Francisco Giants.

Predictably, they’re no longer being discussed in the same sentence as their division rival and World Series favorite Los Angeles Dodgers entering 2022.

Moreover, the lockout was especially disastrous for the Friars. Fernando Tatis Jr. suffered a fractured scaphoid bone in his left wrist during the offseason, but it wasn’t discovered until he underwent an X-ray when he arrived at camp in mid-March.

Tatis had wrist surgery on March 16, and the recovery timetable is three months. Thus, Tatis is unlikely to return until mid-June at the earliest. The Padres aren’t bereft of talent without Tatis, but their offense is less imposing.

San Diego’s rotation has a high ceiling and depth. However, the bullpen is a question mark and could go in either direction, meaning it could be another challenging year in 2022.

Padres Top Betting Odds 2022

San Diego Padres MLB betting odds are current as of March 29, 2022 at Betway Sportsbook and, where noted, Caesars Sportsbook.

  • World Series Winners (+1900)
  • Win National League pennant (+950)
  • Win National League West title (+350)
  • 2022 Win Total Over/Under: 88.5 (-110) - Caesars Sportsbook

After looking across multiple sportsbooks, Betway Sportsbook’s odds stood out as the most bettor-friendly for San Diego’s World Series, NL pennant, and NL West title wagers.

Further — spoiler alert — since I like the Friars’ Under, I chose the line of 88.5 wins at Caesars Sportsbook instead of 87.5 wins at FOX Bet Sportsbook. Obviously, I suggest venturing over to FOX Bet for a more favorable line if you like the Over.

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Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our MLB futures tipster picks.

Padres Futures Bets 2022

Padres UNDER 88.5 Wins (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 0.22 Units

According to Baseball-Reference, the Padres had a Pythagorean record of just 83-79 in 2021. So, they were only slightly unlucky compared to their 79-83 record, falling short of 89 wins by either measure.

The Padres were average or worse at the dish, on the bump, and in the field last season. According to FanGraphs, San Diego was tied for 14th in weighted runs created plus (97 wRC+), 14th in ERA (4.10), and 26th in defense.

They’ll need to leap forward in 2022 without their top player for the first few months of the year to win 89 games or more, and I’m not expecting their jump to be that large.

Padres To Miss 2022 MLB Playoffs (+200) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 0.38 Units

I expect the Friars to win less than 89 games. Therefore, I believe they’ll struggle to reach the postseason, even with an additional team qualifying for the playoffs in each league.

The Dodgers won the second-most games in MLB in 2021 and are deservedly the betting favorites to win the World Series. Meanwhile, the Giants were the surprise team of 2021, winning an MLB-high 107 games.

I don’t expect San Francisco to challenge for the most wins again in 2022, but they’re a legitimately good team. Sharing the division with them isn’t optimal for San Diego’s playoff chances.

Padres Player Prop Bets 2022

Jake Cronenworth To Lead MLB In Hits (+5000) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 0.1 Units

Jake Cronenworth has hit the ground running since reaching the majors in 2020. In 835 plate appearances, he’s hit .271/.343/.464 with a .293 BABIP.

While his slash is stellar, his .321 xBA in 2020 and .280 xBA in 2021 exceed his .285 batting average and .266 batting average in those seasons. You could say Cronenworth was a bit unlucky in his first two years.

Cronenworth also has a high-contact approach, striking out in just 14.4% of his plate appearances. His combination of quality contact and avoiding empty swings is desirable for making a run at leading MLB in hits.

Yu Darvish To Lead MLB in Wins (+5000) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Yu Darvish To Win NL Cy Young Award (+3000) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 0.1 Units On Each

Yu Darvish had an underwhelming 2021 season on the surface, recording a 4.22 ERA in 30 starts. However, his ERA estimators, which included a 3.35 xERA and 3.49 SIERA, were much better.

Additionally, Darvish was excellent in 2020, with a 2.01 ERA, a glowing 2.99 xERA, and 3.14 SIERA over a dozen starts and 76 innings. Darvish should rebound in 2022 with a ceiling of pitching closer to his 2020 output than his 2021 ERA estimators.

Finally, Darvish is capable of turning in quality starts regularly. According to ESPN, even in his mediocre 2021, he threw 13 quality starts.

In 2020, Darvish tied for the MLB lead with 10 quality starts in a dozen starts. As a result, Darvish is an intriguing longshot to lead MLB in wins or to win the NL Cy Young Award.

MacKenzie Gore To Win NL Rookie of the Year Award (+4500) at FOX Bet Sportsbook

WAGER: 0.1 Units 

Sadly, last year was a developmental disaster for MacKenzie Gore. It was also a reminder that not every top prospect follows a linear path to big-league success, and a hiccup along the way isn’t the end of the world.

Most importantly, he’s turning heads in the spring. The young southpaw’s velocity is reportedly up, pumping his heater at an average of 96 mph and touching 99 mph regularly, per Aram Leighton.

He’s been riding his high-octane arsenal to sterling results in spring training, allowing only one hit, zero walks, and zero runs with seven strikeouts through his first two starts, both five-inning outings.

Gore is competing for the fifth spot in the rotation with Nick Martinez, Chris Paddack, and Ryan Weathers. I’m not optimistic he’ll open camp in the rotation given the acceptable alternatives and Gore’s 2021 struggles.

Still, the cream often rises to the top, and Gore’s upside trumps his competitors’ ceilings.


Josh Shepardson

Josh is a fantasy gamer of roughly 20 years and a fantasy pundit for more than 10 years. He's experienced in numerous season-long baseball and football league types and a daily fantasy sports grinder, too. Additionally, Josh is a recreational gambler who has a soft spot for futures and prop bets. He studied and completed his Bachelor's degree in Sport Management at the State University of New York at Cortland, and he remains in Central New York, residing in Auburn.

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