The Houston Astros will try to win their second consecutive World Series and make their third appearance in a row. This team is well-positioned to remain a title contender.
They added veteran first baseman José Abreu to upgrade a lineup that was already among the best in baseball. It’s an imposing group that consists of stars like Yordan Álvarez and Kyle Tucker, along with savvy veterans like José Altuve and Alex Bregman.
While losing 2022 AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander is a big blow to the starting rotation, and they still have Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier at the top. It wouldd help if Lance McCullers Jr. can come back from injury, especially after he only went 47.2 innings last year.
The Astros are in good shape for another deep playoff run. We can safely project them as one of the favorites in the American League. So without further ado, let’s get right into the Astros betting odds for the 2023 season.
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Astros Top Betting Odds 2023
Astros MLB betting odds are current as of Mar. 7 at 1 p.m. EST from Caesars Sportsbook.
- World Series Winners: (+500)
- Win American League pennant: (+250)
- Win AL West title: (-215)
- Win Total: Over 96 (-110) | Under 96 (-110)
The Astros rank 1st in World Series, American League pennant, and AL West odds. Their season win total is the highest in MLB.
While this is clearly a team that should remain among the best in baseball, it’s hard to find value in taking them to win the World Series or AL pennant.
It’s also too expensive to bet on them to win the AL West at -215 odds.
Since they’re at the top across the board, it gives us a buying opportunity on targeting their season win total. We have a high bar at 96 wins, making the Under look appealing.
2023 MLB Futures Odds
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This widget will update with more bets as the offseason progresses.
Astros Futures Bets 2023
Below you’ll find the top Astros futures bets for the 2023 season.
Astros Under 96 Wins (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Astros are a great team, but they need to go at least 97-65 to eclipse this total. When you consider injuries and variance, it’s hard to feel comfortable with such a high number.
Houston went 106-56 in 2022 and 95-67 in 2021. They’re a great bet to win 90+ games, but here’s what could go wrong for them in 2023.
For one, losing Verlander is a big loss. They’ll be relying on Valdez to repeat his 2022 production while also getting continued dominance from Javier.
This is quite possible, but the rest of their rotation has some question marks. McCullers has consistently dealt with injuries, making it hard to rely on him for a full year.
Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy are both solid back-end starters, but it’s harder to rely on them as number three options. Hunter Brown is in his first full year in the majors.
We also have to acknowledge the risks with Altuve (turns 33 years old) and Álvarez (nursing a hand issue). If they were to miss time, it would be a big loss for this offense.
It’s important to note that the division has gotten stronger this year. The Mariners have a young team loaded with talent, looking to build off last year. The Rangers added an ace in Jacob deGrom. The Angels have an underrated lineup with an improved rotation.
While the A’s are still one of the worst teams in baseball, it could be more challenging for the Astros to inflate their record with division wins, especially with a more balanced schedule that involves fewer division games.
To summarize, taking this Under does not mean that I believe the Astros will flop this season. It’s just a bet against a team hitting such a high number, considering the circumstances.
Astros Player Prop Bets 2023
Yordan Alvarez to lead in Home Runs (+1200) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Alvarez is coming off a phenomenal season, where he slashed .306/.406/.613 with 37 home runs in 561 plate appearances. His 185 wRC+ ranked 2nd among qualifying hitters, behind only Aaron Judge.
The 25-year-old slugger is able to make contact at a 78.8% rate (64th) while maintaining elite power (.306 ISO, 2nd).
He absolutely crushes the baseball, ranking in the 100th percentile in both barrel rate and average exit velocity.
If Alvarez is able to get towards 650 plate appearances with a fully healthy year, he’s a great bet to lead MLB in home runs.
The skills are there, we just need the volume.
Cristian Javier to win AL Cy Young (+2500) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Javier broke out last season, posting the following impressive numbers:
- 33.2 K% (3rd)
- 80.0 Z-Contact% (4th)
- 24.3 K-BB% (8th)
- 13.8 SwStr% (T-10th)
- 3.14 SIERA (T-11th)
Here we have a 25-year-old pitcher who posted a high strikeout rate and limited hard contact. Hitters found it difficult to connect on Javier’s pitches within the strike zone, which helps demonstrate how nasty he can be.
We’ve also seen Javier show a high ceiling if we extrapolate a few of his best outings:
- @ NYY: 7 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K
- vs LAA: 7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14 K
- @ BAL: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
Did I mention that this was his first full season as a starter? Javier pitched a career-high 148.2 innings last year. Steamer projects him to get to 168 in 2023.
If Javier can maintain the improvements shown in 2022 across a larger sample of innings, he’ll be firmly in contention for AL Cy Young.
We’re getting terrific value at +2500 odds.
Kyle Tucker to win AL MVP (+3000) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
What we want to focus on when targeting the MVP market is wins above replacement (WAR). This is the most important metric with this award, as it accurately describes a player’s worth to their team.
Tucker has been worth 4.6 and 4.7 WAR in the last two seasons, but there is some untapped upside here.
For one, he has sometimes hit in the sixth spot in the Astros’ lineup. That has limited his offensive impact because he has fewer opportunities to drive in runs.
As one of the two best hitters on this team, it’s reasonable to project Tucker to be bumped up to the two-hole at some point in 2023, allowing for more chances to rack up counting stats like runs and RBI.
Secondly, Tucker improved his defense last year — take a look at the differences from 2021 to 2022:
- 2021: 34.0 Offense, -7.3 Defense, 4.6 WAR
- 2022: 23.9 Offense, 1.6 Defense, 4.7 WAR
Tucker saw his wRC+ fall from 145 to 129 in 2022. If he’s able to carry over his defensive improvements and bring back his 2021 offense into 2023, he’d likely be worth 6.0+ WAR.
Those are numbers that would see him in contention for AL MVP. If he can turn in a 30-30 season (he went 30-25 in 2022), that would be an added bonus.
How to Bet Astros Moneylines
Moneyline bets are a simple way of wagering on MLB games. All you need to do is pick the winner of the game, and you’ll win your bet.
The odds are quite easy to understand, too. For example, if the Astros are a (-200) favorite, you would have to bet $20 to win $10. If they’re a (+200) underdog, you can win $20 off a $10 bet.
These odds will change every day depending upon the Astros matchup, so there’s always an opportunity for value every step of the way.
How to Bet Astros Run Line
Run Line betting is another common way to bet on MLB games, and you’re probably already familiar with it. You may know it as how much a team is “picked by" to win.
If the Astros are 1.5 run favorites over the Angels, the Run Line would look something like this: Astros -1.5 (+150) vs Angels +1.5 (-150).
In this scenario, the Astros would have to win by more than one run to cash your bet.
How to Bet Astros Over/Unders
If you’re unsure about the Astros moneyline or run line on a given day, you can still place a bet on the Over/Under — or total — in the matchup.
Sportsbooks will set a line for how many combined runs they project will be scored. From there, you can bet on the Over or Under.
For example, if you believe in the Astros offense and think it’ll be a high-scoring game, then you’ll want to take the Over. However, if it’s supposed to be more of a pitcher’s duel, you should go with the Under.
