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Panthers vs Lightning Predictions For Game 4 | Puck Line, Over/Under, & Parlay Bets For Stanley Cup Playoffs

Posted: May 23, 2022Last updated: May 23, 2022

A day after taking a 3-0 series lead, the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning will go for a sweep of their in-state rival Florida Panthers at Amalie Arena Monday night.

The Lightning rolled to a 5-1 win in Game 3 Sunday afternoon, all but burying the Presidents’ Trophy winners from winning the Stanley Cup for the first time in their 28-season existence. Only four teams have ever rallied to win a series from 3-0 down - most recently the 2014 Los Angeles Kings who did so in their first-round series against the San Jose Sharks.

The Panthers, who scored a league-high 340 goals in the regular season, have been held to just three goals in three games, or as many as veteran forward Corey Perry has in the series. Tampa Bay has won five straight games dating back to its first-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Monday, May 23 at 9 a.m. ET.

Panthers vs Lightning Game 4 Odds

  • Moneyline: Lightning -130 / Panthers (+110)
  • Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+190) / Panthers (-230)
  • Over/Under: Over 6 (-120) / Under 6 (-120)

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Panthers vs Lightning Game 4 Prediction

The Panthers have largely dominated the play at 5-on-5 in the series, yet Tampa Bay leads 3-0 based on two extremely important criteria: goaltending and special teams.

Florida boasts a 56.04 5-on-5 Corsi-For percentage and a 51.32 Expected Goals-For percentage at 5-on-5 through three games yet is on the verge of elimination. The Lightning power play has 4 goals on 11 power plays (36.3 %), and the Panthers’ man-advantage is just 1 for 10 (10%) in the series.

Tampa Bay superstar goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has outplayed his Florida counterpart Sergei Bobrovsky as well. The Lightning goalie has stopped 102 of 105 shots (.971) through three games, and Bobrovsky’s surrendered nine goals on 98 shots (.908).

With only about 27 hours separating the end of Game 3 and the start of Game 4, don’t expect much to change.

Panthers vs Lightning Game 4 Pick

Lightning 4, Panthers 2

Panthers vs Lightning Game 4 Best Bets

Lightning Moneyline (-130)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Tampa Bay is finally a favorite in this series but not too big of a favorite to warrant passing on the odds for them to sweep.

Lightning -1.5 (+190)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Florida is going to be desperate and might even score first. But if you believe Tampa Bay is going to finish the sweep, you’ll have to think it’ll get at least one empty-net goal. Given the odds, and the fact Tampa Bay has won two of the three games by more than one, this should be worth a bet.

Panthers vs Lightning Game 4 Best Parlay

Panthers-Lightning Parlay (+550) at BetMGM Sportsbook

  • Lightning ML
  • Panthers to Score First
  • Over 5.5 Goals

WAGER: 0.5 Units

For some reason, teams who face elimination — especially those facing a sweep — tend to score first in those elimination games. Those first goals don’t necessarily keep those teams from getting swept. It just tends to happen.

If you’d rather play it more conservatively and keep the Over at 4.5, the odds are still +425, which is still really good.


PREVIOUSLY: Lightning vs. Panthers Predictions

The Tampa Bay Lightning will try to take a stranglehold of their Eastern Conference second-round series with the rival Florida Panthers as the setting shifts to Amalie Arena for Game 3 on Sunday afternoon.

The Lightning took a 2-0 edge over their in-state rivals by stealing each of the first two games in Sunrise for the second straight year. Tampa Bay is 4-1 all-time against Florida in the playoffs at FLA Live Arena, including its Game 2 stunner where Ross Colton scored the game-winner with less than four seconds remaining in regulation to give the Lightning a 2-1 win.

Florida, the Presidents’ Trophy winner who scored a league-high 340 goals in the regular season, has managed just two goals in two games against the two-time defending champions. The Panthers have dominated the play at 5-on-5 but have lost the special-teams battle, surrendering four power-play goals through two games and going 0-for-7 with the man-advantage.

Florida is 0-for-25 on the power play through eight postseason games this year. Will that change on Sunday in Game 3? Let’s dig into the odds and our predictions.

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Friday, May 20 at 10 a.m. ET.

Panthers vs Lightning Game 3 Odds

  • Moneyline: Panthers (-115) / Lightning (-105)
  • Puck Line: Panthers -1.5 (+205) / Lightning +1.5 (-250)
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+100) / Under 6.5 (-120)

Panthers vs Lightning Game 3 Prediction

The Panthers largely outplayed the Lightning in Game 2, and again have dominated at 5-on-5. Florida boasts a 58.05 5-on-5 Corsi-For percentage and 55.23 Expected Goals-For percentage, yet has faltered in each of its first two games due to weak special teams play and a late-game mistake by defenseman Mackenzie Weegar on Colton’s game-winner.

There’s cause for concern, but it’s not quite time to panic yet. The Panthers penalty kill looked much better, calmly killing the final two Lightning power plays after surrendering Corey Perry’s man-advantage goal in the first period.

Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky was awesome, making 26 saves including some really spectacular ones. The power play got some great looks and would’ve scored if not for Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Florida gets an extra day to lick its wounds and figure out what adjustments to make — notably how to get even more shots through Tampa Bay’s shot blockers to test Vasilevskiy. I tend to think the Panthers will find a way to dodge a 3-0 hole by winning Sunday at Amalie Arena.

If they don’t, the Panthers’ season could be over by Monday.

Panthers vs Lightning Game 3 Pick

Panthers 5, Lightning 2

Panthers vs Lightning Game 3 Best Bets

Over 6.5 Goals (+100)

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Panthers are going to need to score goals if they’re going to win. Florida averaged 4.25 goals per game in wins and just 1.25 in losses. That’s generally what happens this time of the year.

If you think Florida will do it what it takes to get off the mat and make this a series, you have to think the Over will hit.

Panthers Moneyline (-115)

Wager: 1 Unit

Florida is a road favorite against Tampa Bay despite the 2-0 series deficit, but these odds are still really solid. Florida may not win the series, but it probably won’t get swept.

Panthers vs Lightning Game 3 Best Parlay

Panthers-Lightning Parlay (+225) at BetMGM Sportsbook

  • Panthers: Over 3.5 Goals
  • Panthers to Score First

WAGER: 1 Unit

Three-leg parlays are tricky, especially in a low-scoring series.

I think Florida will get off the mat in Game 3 and make this a series. Each of these legs will need to play out for that to happen.


PREVIOUSLY: Panthers vs Lightning Game 2 Prediction

The Tampa Bay Lightning stole home-ice advantage from the Florida Panthers in Game 1 and will try to take command of their Eastern Conference second-round series against their in-state rivals in Game 2 at FLA Live Arena on Thursday.

Superstar forward Nikita Kucherov and the venerable Corey Perry each had a goal and an assist, and fourth-line center Pierre-Edouard Bellemare scored the game-winning goal as part of a three-goal third period that lifted Tampa Bay to its third straight win and cashed in for Lightning moneyline bettors (+140).

The Panthers dropped Game 1 in Sunrise for the second time this postseason. Anthony Duclair scored the game’s first goal, but Florida could not score again against Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who made 33 saves.

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Wednesday, May 18 at 10 a.m. ET.

Panthers vs Lightning Game 2 Odds

  • Moneyline: Panthers (-160) / Lightning (+140)
  • Puck Line: Panthers -1.5 (+150) / Lightning +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-115) / Under 6.5 (-105)

Panthers vs Lightning Game 2 Prediction

The goaltending was exceptional in Game 1, with Vasilevskiy and Florida goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky combining to stop 55 of 60 shots. Duclair thought he had a second goal, one that would’ve tied the game at two in the third period, but Tampa Bay successfully challenged that the puck had gone out of play, thus negating the goal.

Tampa Bay’s power play struck for three goals on six opportunities in Game 1 and now has 10 goals on 39 man-advantage opportunities these playoffs (25.6%). The Panthers’ moribund PP has not scored yet these playoffs in 21 opportunities and was 0-for-3 in Game 1.

Florida, which lost Games 1 and 2 on home ice in its six-game series loss to the Lightning in 2021, can’t afford to fall behind 2-0 against the Lightning again. I have to think the Panthers will find a way to win Game 2.

Panthers vs Lightning Game 2 Pick

Panthers 4, Lightning 3

Panthers vs Lightning Game 2 Best Bets

Over 6.5 Goals (-115)

WAGER: 1 Unit

The odds on this are even better than in Game 1, which means it’s time to cash in. The Under hit in Game 1 of Tampa Bay’s series against the Toronto Maple Leafs, then the Over was successful in five straight games.

I fully expect this series to be extremely entertaining and go deep — perhaps even seven games. Game 2 is the Over’s time to cash in.

Both Teams To Score in the 1st Period (+135) at BetRivers Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

I believe these offenses will get unleashed from the outset in Game 2. The feeling-out period is over, plus the odds on this are too good to pass up.

Panthers vs Lightning Game 2 Best Parlay

Panthers-Lightning Parlay (+340) at BetMGM Sportsbook

  • Panthers Moneyline
  • Over 2.5 1st Period Goals
  • Over 5.5 Goals

WAGER: 1 Unit

If you’re feeling dangerous, swap the Panthers to win from behind, and the odds shoot up to (+700). If Florida is going to win, it’s going to need to score goals. It’ll probably to score them from the outset.

I think a 2-1 game after 20 minutes is practical. If that happens, and the Panthers win, this parlay will hit.


PREVIOUSLY: Panthers vs Lightning Game 1 Prediction

With all due respect to the rest of the field, the most anticipated Eastern Conference series will kick off Tuesday when the Florida Panthers host the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference second round.

The Panthers and Lightning met in a wildly entertaining first-round series in 2021, the inaugural playoff meeting between the in-state rivals. Tampa Bay stole home-ice advantage, winning Games 1 and 2 in Sunrise, en route to a six-game win and its second consecutive Stanley Cup championship.

Florida, which ended the longest playoff series win drought in the NHL (26 years) by defeating the Washington Capitals in six games, will have home ice again after winning the Presidents’ Trophy. The Lightning polished off the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games in the first round for their ninth straight playoff series win.

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Monday, May 16 at 11 a.m. ET.

Panthers vs Lightning Game 1 Odds

  • Moneyline: Panthers (-160) / Lightning (+140)
  • Puck Line: Panthers -1.5 (+145) / Lightning +1.5 (-170)
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-135) / Under 6.5 (+115)

Panthers vs Lightning Game 1 Prediction

The Panthers were the NHL’s highest-scoring team since 1995-96, scoring 340 goals during the regular season. The Lightning are coming off a round where the Over hit in five of their seven games.

There were at least eight goals in three of the six games last year. This series should extremely high scoring again.

Panthers vs Lightning Game 1 Pick

Panthers 5, Lightning 3

The Lightning are undoubtedly gassed after their wild seven-game series win against the Leafs but should get buoyed by the electric home crowd at FLA Live Arena on Tuesday.

Still, the Panthers are relentless — a terrible matchup for any team, but especially one that’s tired. I hope this is a long series, and expect it to be, but Florida is fresher and should be able to take care of business in Game 1.

Panthers vs Lightning Game 1 Best Bets

Over 6.5 Goals (-135)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Florida scored at an incredible rate during the regular season and is coming off a series where three of the six games had at least seven goals. There were at least seven goals in five of the seven games between the Lightning and Leafs.

The odds aren’t great for this for a reason, but it’s worth trusting that these teams will combine for at least seven in Game 1.

Panthers -1.5 Puck Line (+140)

WAGER: 0.5 Units

If ever there’s a game to take plus-money, puck-line odds it’s this one, where Florida shouldn’t suffer a letdown and the Lightning could have a tough time mustering the energy.

Tampa Bay lost its first playoff game in Toronto 5-0. We wouldn’t expect the result to be that drastic, but Florida by two or more, at these odds, is worth a flier.

Panthers vs Lightning Game 1 Best Parlay

Panthers-Lightning Parlay (+250) at BetMGM

  • 1st Period: Panthers
  • Panthers Moneyline
  • Over 5.5 Goals

WAGER: 1 Unit

As stated above, the Panthers should be ultra-motivated to take Game 1. I’d expect Florida to score first and maybe even build a multi-goal lead after one period.

This isn’t to say the Lightning are going to get swept. Tampa Bay should be very competitive in the series. Florida is extremely good and should take care of business in Game 1 — or risk it being a short series.


The Panthers and Lightning will square off with a berth in the conference finals on the line. Tampa Bay has won nine straight playoff series, and the Panthers have won four postseasons rounds in their entire existence.

Still, this series should be awesome. Each side has superstar forwards, dominant defensemen, and above-average goaltending. Plus, last year’s six-game series featured a ton of goals, some fights on the ice and in the stands, and was terrific to watch.

We can only hope the sequel will give us a seventh game, which was the only thing lacking from the 2021 edition.

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Monday, May 16 at 11 a.m. ET.

Panthers vs Lightning Series Winner Odds

  • Panthers (-150)
  • Lightning (+130)

Panthers vs Lightning Series Prediction

The Lightning persevered like champions in the first round, rallying from 3-2 down in both the series and third period of Game 6 to steal their series against the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games.

Still, the Panthers are on a different level than even the Leafs this year, and the grind of winning nine straight playoff rounds, and two straight Stanley Cup championships, is going to get to Tampa Bay at some point.

The Lightning should be energized by playing their in-state rivals for the second year in a row. But in the end, Florida should be just a little bit better.

Panthers vs Lightning Series Pick

Panthers in 7 Games

Panthers vs Lightning Series Best Bets

Panthers 4-3 Series Score (+400)

WAGER: 0.5 Units

Panthers in six games is (+450) if you don’t love the idea of fledgling Florida needing a seventh game to unseat the two-time defending champions.

Either of those is your most likely outcome. I just love the idea of these teams playing a seventh game and adding fuel to the rivalry, and hockey, in the Sunshine State.

Series to Go 7 Games (+225)

WAGER: 0.5 Units

Six games has the shortest odds (+200) of any series duration, and although Florida looks like the superior team on paper, these teams are extremely close, which means a seven-game series isn’t a bad bet.

Author

Pat Pickens

Pat Pickens is a seasoned sportswriter who has covered the NHL since 2013 for various websites, including The New York Times, NHL.com, Sportsnet.ca, USA Today, the Associated Press and many others. His debut book, titled "The Whalers" about the history of the NHL's Hartford Whalers, was released in October 2021. His greatest successful wager was an LA Kings puck-line bet (+200) in Game 1 of the 2012 Western Conference Final.

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