XFL Predictions & Best Bets Week 5

Last Updated: Mar 16, 2023

The XFL reaches the halfway point of the third season in its history with a four-game slate that kicks off Thursday night with an intriguing Houston Roughnecks vs Seattle Sea Dragons matchup. Week 4 was big for favorites, with all four prevailing.

Will we see an encore this week, or will the underdogs rebound? Without further ado, let’s dive further into our Week 5 XFL predictions and best bets.

Note: XFL lines are current as of Thursday, March 16, at 11 a.m. ET at DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

XFL Week 5 Best Bet

Read more about this top XFL betting pick below.

Arlington Renegades vs San Antonio Brahmas Odds & Best Bet

  • Moneyline: Brahmas (-145) • Renegades (+125)
  • Spread: Brahmas -3 (-110) • Renegades +3 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 35.5 (-110) • Under 35.5 (-110)

Under 35.5 Total Points (-110) | DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

These two Texas squads have found yards and points hard to come by, putting both teams’ quarterbacks under the microscope. Kyle Sloter and Jack Coan have proven they can put up decent yardage numbers, but closing the deal and getting their teams into the end zone has been a struggle.

That’s led to Arlington and San Antonio scoring the second- and third-fewest points, respectively. However, the defenses have held up well despite having to often be on the field for extended periods — the Renegades are allowing a respectable 19 points per contest, while the Brahmas have been even stingier with 16.8 points per game surrendered.

Renegades head coach Bob Stoops has alluded to the possibility of splitting reps between Sloter and recently deposed starter Drew Plitt for this contest, which ironically could lead to even more of a lack of cohesion.

This game unsurprisingly carries the lowest projected total of the week, and it’s one I think may still be too high.

Therefore, I like the Under as our XFL pick of the week.

Houston Roughnecks vs Seattle Sea Dragons Odds & Best Bet

  • Moneyline: Roughnecks (-170) • Sea Dragons (+145)
  • Spread: Roughnecks -3.5 (-105) • Sea Dragons +3.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) • Under 42.5 (-110)

Over 42.5 Total Points (-110) | DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Roughnecks have yet to lose a game in their existence dating back to 2020. This season, their unblemished mark is a true team effort that’s seen the team’s standout offense and defense compete with one another for the limelight week to week.

Houston leads the league in both points scored (122) and points allowed (55). Quarterback Brandon Silvers is rightfully playing with more confidence each week and is being supported by a host of talented skill-position assets including Max Borghi, Jontre Kirklin, and Deontay Burnett.

The Sea Dragons are now slouches in their own right and have a quarterback in Ben DiNucci running a June Jones offense that’s partly the inspiration for Houston’s aggressive attack with great aplomb himself. There’s no shortage of talent at his disposal, either, considering the presence of the likes of Morgan Ellison, Josh Gordon, and the XFL’s leading receiver, Jahcour Pearson.

The fearsome Roughnecks’ pass rush could be at least somewhat slowed by an offensive line that’s only allowed DiNucci to be sacked four times, while the Sea Dragons’ defense has shown vulnerability to talented offenses. Consequently, I’m in the camp of the Over in what should be a thrilling slate-opening battle.

DC Defenders vs St. Louis Battlehawks Odds & Best Bet

  • Moneyline: Defenders (-125) • Battlehawks (+105)
  • Spread: Defenders -1.5 (-110) • Battlehawks +1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 42 (-110) • Under 42 (-110)

Battlehawks +1.5 (-110) | DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

This is yet another fascinating Week 5 clash between two of the league’s best teams and could in fact end up being the game of the week. Not only is the matchup between the talent on each side intriguing, but the very sizable X-factor of what could be an even bigger home crowd for St. Louis than last week’s 38K-plus adds another unique element.

The Defenders sit just below the equally undefeated Roughnecks in XFL Champion Odds thanks in large part to a defense that is as fearsome as Houston’s. DC has allowed just 17.5 points per contest and racked up 12 sacks.

However, they’ll be tangling with a balanced and talented Battlehawks offense that’s able to attack with a variety of experienced weapons which have enjoyed some success at the highest level. That group includes A.J. McCarron, Brian Hill, Hakeem Butler, and Darrius Shepherd.

The fact Defenders QB Jordan Ta’amu, who was the Battlehawks signal-caller in 2020, has played much better recently still doesn’t erase the possibility that he could certainly be goaded into mistakes by his former home crowd. Consequently, I like a never-say-die St. Louis squad to keep things close enough here for a cover.

Orlando Guardians vs Las Vegas Vipers Odds & Best Bet

  • Moneyline: Vipers (-330) • Guardians (+275)
  • Spread: Vipers -7 (-110) • Guardians +7 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 42 (-110) • Under 42 (-110)

Guardians +7 (-110) | DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

This battle between the league’s two last remaining winless teams stands in stark contrast on the surface to the rest of the games. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll have a dud on our hands at Cashman Field.

Both the Guardians and Vipers have gotten strong quarterback play for extended stretches, which is rare for teams that can’t find their way to a single win in four tries. Orlando’s Paxton Lynch has actually been much better the last two weeks in particular than the general consensus would lead one to believe — he’s completed 37 of 62 passes for 486 yards and two touchdowns without an interception in that span while also adding a rushing score.

Pass protection has been a major issue for the Guardians, which have seen Lynch sacked 14 times and have given up 17 sacks overall. Yet, the Vipers may be just the cure for what ails them.

Vegas has a league-low seven sacks and is tied for the second-fewest interceptions (two). Orlando has some talented pass catchers, as well, in Cody Latimer, Charleston Rambo, and Eli Rogers.

The Guardians have already proven capable of playing a team close on the road, losing to Arlington by just one point in Week 3. While Vegas can also move the ball when either Luis Perez or Brett Hundley can get rolling, there’s certainly not yet evidence they can pull away enough to beat any team by eight points or more.


Juan Carlos Blanco

Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports since 1997 and actively writing about the fantasy sports and sports betting industries since 2015 for multiple websites. He has covered a wide variety of professional sports leagues, including the NFL, MLB, NBA, CFL, Arena Football League, Alliance of American Football, XFL, NPB and KBO. He was the recipient of the FSWA's 2016 Newcomer of the Year award for his work with RotoWire.

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