XFL Predictions & Best Bets Week 3

Last Updated: Mar 2, 2023

The XFL has put an intriguing first two weeks on tape, and fortunately, our early betting assessments have mostly been right on target (7-1 on primary selections).

With a two-game sample size on each squad, we naturally start to get a better sense of capabilities and personnel on both sides of the ball, so hopefully we can keep the good times rolling in Week 3.

This coming slate will be played out mostly during a Sunday triple-header and is highlighted by a battle of undefeated squads in the Battlehawks and Defenders, as well as a Brahmas-Roughnecks Lone Star State showdown.

Without further ado, let’s dive into our Week 3 XFL predictions and best bets.

Note: XFL lines are current as of Thursday March 2, at 10 a.m. ET at DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

XFL Week 3 Best Bet

Read more about this top XFL betting pick below.

Guardians vs Renegades Odds & Best Bet

  • Moneyline: Renegades (-425) • Guardians (+340)
  • Spread: Renegades -8.5 (-110) • Guardians +8.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 38 (-110) • Under 38 (-110)

Under 38 Total Points (-110) | DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Guardians have fought valiantly at times over the first two games but have still scored only 24 points overall. Instability at quarterback has been a primary reason, with none of Paxton Lynch, Quinten Dormady, and Deondre Francois doing anything to separate themselves from the pack.

The Renegades have some shaky quarterback play of their own to deal with due to the talented but inexperienced Drew Plitt, who has completed just 34-of-55 passes for 292 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions through two games.

Arlington’s defense had some breakdowns against the Roughnecks’ aggressive offense in Week 2. Yet, the Renegades have a quality unit that has already recorded a pair of defensive scores and could certainly feast on Orlando’s offensive weaknesses.

With the Renegades also struggling to run the ball through the first two weeks, this has all the makings of a lower-scoring affair, making the Under our XFL pick of the week.

Sea Dragons vs Vipers Odds & Best Bet

  • Moneyline: Sea Dragons (-165) • Vipers (+140)
  • Spread: Sea Dragons -3.5 (-110) • Vipers +3.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 38.5 (-110) • Under 38.5 (-110)

Vipers +3.5 (-110) | DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Sea Dragons have suffered two razor-thin losses to start the season. Seattle fell to the Defenders by four in the opener on a late Ben DiNucci fumble and then fell victim to the latest A.J. McCarron late-game comeback in a Week 2 Thursday night loss.

Seattle had some defensive issues late in the latter contest in particular after mostly dominating D.C.’s Jordan Ta’amu-led offense in Week 1. However, the caliber of competition under center arguably goes up this week against the Vipers’ Brett Hundley, who made his season debut in the Week 2 loss to the Defenders.

Taking over for an ineffective Luis Perez, Hundley got his feet wet by completing 11-of-18 passes for 98 yards and adding 24 rushing yards on five carries. Hundley also took two sacks from the aggressive, Gregg Williams-led Vegas defense, but he could be a lot more acclimated this week while undoubtedly heaping some attention on the talented wideout duo of Martavis Bryant and Geronimo Allison.

Both players were surprisingly shut out in Week 2, but we would expect Hundley’s extra practice time with the veteran pair — along with talented No. 3 option Jeff Badet — to pay some dividends early and often in what could be a pass-heavy affair.

Considering Vegas’ defense has played reasonably well with little support from its offense over the last six quarters, we like the hosts to keep this game close, at minimum.

Battlehawks vs Defenders Odds & Best Bet

  • Moneyline: Defenders (-140) • Battlehawks (+120)
  • Spread: Defenders -2.5 (-110) • Battlehawks +2.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 36.5 (-110) • Under 36.5 (-110)

Under 37 Total Points (-110) | DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Battlehawks will gladly take their 2-0 record, but there’s little question their tendency to fall behind and mount last-minute comebacks will eventually catch up to them.

McCarron has played well overall and certainly delivered in crunch time, but St. Louis has had some trouble sustaining drive-to-drive consistency. That’s not likely to get much easier versus Williams’ Defenders defense, which is right up there with Wade Phillips‘ Roughnecks crew as the most aggressive in the eight-team league through two weeks.

On the other side, D.C.’s offense has even more issues. Ta’amu has completed just 19-of-42 passes for 179 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception through two games.

He helped mask his struggles somewhat in Week 2 by generating an impressive 68 rushing yards on 12 carries, but he’ll now have to contend with a Battlehawks defense that held up well overall versus June Jones‘ aggressive Sea Dragons offense last Thursday night.

With each team having question marks on offense and D.C.’s defense likely to short-circuit its fair share of St. Louis drives, the Under is a prudent play here.

Brahmas vs Roughnecks Odds & Best Bet

  • Moneyline: Roughnecks (-190) • Brahmas (+160)
  • Spread: Roughnecks -3.5 (-110) • Brahmas +3.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 36.5 (-110) • Under 36.5 (-110)

Brahmas +3.5 (-110) | DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Roughnecks are the toast of the league through two weeks and actually now boast a seven-game winning streak when counting their 5-0 record in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. They rightfully hold top billing in the XFL Champion Odds heading into Week 3.

This iteration of the team has profiled as the league’s most balanced through two weeks — quarterback Brandon Silvers and his teammates on that side of the ball have been effective running A.J. Smith‘s innovative offense and Phillips’ defense has compiled 12 sacks through two games while only allowing 26 points.

Nevertheless, the Brahmas have shown plenty in their own right. Had it not been for the Battlehawks’ miraculous final 1:25 in Week 1, San Antonio would be 2-0.

The Brahmas have yielded just 30 points themselves and have seen quarterback Jack Coan look very much like he belongs at the XFL level. The Notre Dame product, who put up very good numbers over his last two college seasons, is 41-for-60 for 372 yards with four touchdowns and one interception through two games.

San Antonio has enough on both sides of the ball to keep this game close and cover the second-biggest spread of the week.


Juan Carlos Blanco

Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports since 1997 and actively writing about the fantasy sports and sports betting industries since 2015 for multiple websites. He has covered a wide variety of professional sports leagues, including the NFL, MLB, NBA, CFL, Arena Football League, Alliance of American Football, XFL, NPB and KBO. He was the recipient of the FSWA's 2016 Newcomer of the Year award for his work with RotoWire.

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