Roughnecks vs Renegades Predictions | XFL Best Bets & Odds

Last Updated: Apr 27, 2023

After an exciting regular season, the XFL postseason is upon us and The Game Day has your XFL Playoffs best bets.

Saturday night, the Arlington Renegades, who backed into the postseason with a 4-6 record, face off with the Houston Roughnecks for the South Division Championship.

Read on for our top Roughnecks vs Renegades picks.

Roughnecks vs Renegades Odds

XFL odds used for Houston vs Arlington were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, April 26, at 3 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Roughnecks (-245) • Renegades (+205)
  • Spread: Roughnecks -6.5 (-110) • Renegades +6.5 (-110)
  • Total Points Scored: Over 41.5 (-110) • Under 41.5 (-110)

Roughnecks vs Renegades Prediction

Roughnecks 22, Renegades 20

We’ll throw out the Week 10 result between these two teams even though it was a favorable one for Houston.

Both squads were trying their best not to reveal too much ahead of this postseason matchup, and the Roughnecks also substituted players liberally throughout the game and neither Brandon Silvers nor Max Borghi took the field.

Meanwhile, De’Veon Smith sat out for the Renegades, which appeared to lean heavily into a vanilla, conservative game plan with their playoff spot already locked up.

A Week 2 battle that saw Houston prevail by a 23-14 score is a much more accurate barometer of how things are likely to play out, even though Arlington arguably has a bit more firepower in the passing game now that Luis Perez is under center.

However, the old “defense wins championships" should ultimately be the deciding factor in this spot. Houston comfortably led the league with 35 sacks and checked in second behind Arlington with 12 interceptions. The Roughnecks were also second in forced fumbles (nine), fumble recoveries (nine), and fumble return touchdowns (four).

The Renegades’ own formidable unit will help keep this game close, but ultimately, I give the slight edge to the home squad.

Roughnecks vs Renegades Best Bets

Renegades +6.5 (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

As just outlined, this shapes up as a close contest where both defenses are going to win their fair share of battles.

However, Arlington should also benefit from a rested Smith, who, with late-season star Leddie Brown, will present quite the challenge for the Roughnecks’ defense and should certainly benefit Perez by keeping Houston’s fearsome pass rush at least somewhat at bay.

Perez displayed strong chemistry with talented tight end Sal Cannella over the last pair of games, while the likes of Tyler Vaughns, Caleb Vander Esch, and Brandon Arconado form a talented, albeit underrated, trio of wideout targets.

Finally, the quality of Arlington’s defense shouldn’t be overlooked. As alluded to earlier, the Renegades actually paced the league in interceptions with 13 and also tied for the XFL lead with 10 forced fumbles.

Silvers was solid this season but certainly not immune from mistakes (nine interceptions in eight games). Houston’s passing game also hasn’t been the same since Jontre Kirklin went down for the season with a shoulder injury.

Given the factors cited, I’m in the camp of inking my XFL bet of the day the Renegades doing enough to stay close, even if they come short in the end.

Over 41.5 Total Points (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

This is my lower-confidence wager of the two, given my final score prediction. However, given that both offenses can certainly put up at least a respectable amount of points, it’s definitely in play.

Houston averaged 24.7 points per game during the regular season. The Renegades were last with just 14.6 points per contest, but Arlington did score 26 points in Week 9 with Perez under center against a similarly aggressive defense in that of the Defenders.


Juan Carlos Blanco

Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports since 1997 and actively writing about the fantasy sports and sports betting industries since 2015 for multiple websites. He has covered a wide variety of professional sports leagues, including the NFL, MLB, NBA, CFL, Arena Football League, Alliance of American Football, XFL, NPB and KBO. He was the recipient of the FSWA's 2016 Newcomer of the Year award for his work with RotoWire.

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