Almost a full month into the 2022 NFL season, it is time for my NFL Week 4 predictions and best bets. While it has been a rocky ride through the first two weeks of the NFL campaign, Week 3 began to open things up and give us more clarity on what is real and what is make-believe around the league.
In last week’s 16-game slate, eight road teams won their matchups outright, and Overs went 7-9 when it comes to totals betting.
Entering NFL Week 4, my Best Bets record is 9-10 but I’m down 2 units. I went 3-3 last week and gained a half of a unit. My hits were Falcons moneyline, Cowboys moneyline, and the Packers covering. Three road dogs came through - two of which were at plus-money.
We are starting to heat up.
Let’s get to my Week 4 NFL picks.
Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints Best Bet
Vikings -2.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
NFL in London is set to commence Sunday morning at 9:30 a.m. ET as the Saints, the designated home team, will host the Vikings.
While the Saints are a solid team, they will enter this matchup banged up at wide receiver with both Michael Thomas (toe) and Jarvis Landry (foot) nursing respective lower-body injuries.
The Vikings could also be without a key offensive weapon in the form of Dalvin Cook (shoulder). However, the 2-1 Vikings are coming off of an impressive win over the red-hot Lions while the Saints lost an important division matchup to the reeling Panthers.
Despite injuries on either side, the Vikings are entering this game as the better football team, managing to win last week without a lot of help from Justin Jefferson with other components of the offense stepping up, showing versatility.
Expect this game to come down to the wire. Both Jameis Winston and Kirk Cousins can keep up with each other in a slugfest and despite the Saints’ injuries, they should be able to beat a defunct Vikings secondary allowing the 29th-most passing yards (279.7) per game.
Still, when it comes down to Dennis Allen vs Kevin O’Connell, I will err on the side of the latter to win the coaching matchup.
The favorite is 6-2 against the spread(ATS) in the past eight meetings between the Vikings and Saints.
Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens Best Bet
Bills -3.5 (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
In what could be a preview of the AFC title game, Week 4 will showcase a blockbuster AFC matchup between the Bills and Ravens.
This Week 4 matchup will be a test for both teams who have one thing in common: their only loss has come to the Dolphins.
While the Ravens have wins over the Patriots and Jets, the Bills have blown out the Rams and Titans, last year’s Super Bowl Champion and No. 1 seed in the AFC, respectively. Despite the similar record, the Bills are the superior team on paper.
What gives the Ravens a slight edge is that they are playing at home. However, the Bills will pack too much of an offensive punch for the Baltimore offense to overcome when it is all said and done.
Lamar Jackson can keep up with Josh Allen. That is not in question. However, when it comes to which defense can make a game-altering play, I will side with the Bills and their menacing pass-rush, which will be that much more impactful if Ravens LT Ronnie Stanley (ankle) is out.
The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings between the Bills and Ravens. That is a trend that will be maintained in Week 4. Buffalo should win this by six.
Cleveland Browns vs Atlanta Falcons Best Bet
Falcons Moneyline (+106) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Falcons are 3-0 ATS in 2022 and finally picked up their first win of the year on the road at the Seahawks in Week 3. Now they will host the Browns, who are an unconvincing 2-1.
Deceptively, this game features two of the NFL’s best offenses. Led by Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota, the Browns’ offense is ranked sixth in points (28.3) while the Falcons are ranked ninth (26.7).
This is a game that will come down to which defense can make a key stop or a turnover. The Falcons’ defense has five takeaways while the Browns have logged three. And backed by the loud home crowd in Atlanta, the Falcons will get the job done in a close game.
New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers Best Bet
Packers -10.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
No Mac Jones will spell a catastrophic problem for the prehistoric Patriots. Despite not being officially ruled out as of this writing, Jones is dealing with a “severely" sprained ankle and is not likely to play, which means the Packers will have a chance to tee off against Brian Hoyer.
Even with Jones under center, the Patriots struggled to score points, ranked 25th in scoring (16.7). And although the Packers aren’t faring much better in that category, they should win the matchup facing a Patriots defense that has yet to find its way, ranking 22nd in points allowed (23.7), which is uncharacteristic for a Bill Belichick defense.
Furthermore, look for Green Bay’s defense to feast at home. Ranked sixth in points conceded (15.0), they will stifle the Hoyer-led Pats offense that already has logged eight giveaways.
The spread of 10.5 points is a lot to cover for a struggling Packers team, but they are 2-1 and normally blow out inferior opponents at Lambeau. This will be a get-right game for Aaron Rodgers and his offense.
Arizona Cardinals vs Carolina Panthers Best Bet
Over 43.5 (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Speaking of a get-right game, the Cardinals are in need of one, desperately. Once deemed the best team in the NFC in 2021, the Cardinals look like a shell of themselves, even with a healthy Kyler Murray. Although Murray’s offense is functional, they appear off, likely due to a struggling rushing attack by rushers not named Murray.
The greater issue for the Cardinals, however, is their defense, notably in the secondary. Arizona’s secondary is allowing the 30th-most passing yards (281.0) and their defensive unit whole is allowing the 31st-most points (29.0).
Normally, these defensive deficiencies would play right into the hands of the enemy offense, but that will not be the case when you are opposing Baker Mayfield.
This Cardinals-Panthers matchup has shoot-out written all over it. However, when it comes to Mayfield keeping up with Murray, the former will eventually run out of gas.
Moreover, the Panthers have started off slow this season while trying to make fourth-quarter comebacks. If the Cardinals get off to an early lead, it will be too much for Mayfield to overcome.
I like the Cards to steal a much-needed victory on the road, but the safer play is Over 43.5 (-112).
The Over is 5-1 in the past six meetings between the Cardinals and Panthers.
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers Best Bet
49ers Moneyline (-126) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
While this game seems easier to pick on paper, it isn’t. The Rams look like the superior team while the 49ers look like a team that can’t get out of its own way.
However, let’s pump the brakes.
While the 49ers lost a heartbreaker Sunday night, their offense could not move the football. Let’s note that the Denver defense is not only the best in the NFL, but they were also at home.
What’s more, Jimmy Garoppolo did not have a playbook all offseason and just had his first week of practice with the first-team offense. Garoppolo and the 49ers’ offense will look a lot better against the Rams in Week 4.
On the other side, the Rams’ offense has some pop to it but looks like a shell of itself from a year ago. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ defense is playing lights-out football.
In the past seven games, the 49ers have won six of them. Although the Rams picked up the most important win in last year’s NFC title game, Kyle Shanahan owns Sean McVay in the regular season.
In a projected low-scoring affair, look for the 49ers to squeak out the victory in Week 4.
