Almost a full month into the 2022 NFL season, it is time for my NFL Week 4 predictions and best bets. While it has been a rocky ride through the first two weeks of the NFL campaign, Week 3 began to open things up and give us more clarity on what is real and what is make-believe around the league.
In last week’s 16-game slate, eight road teams won their matchups outright, and Overs went 7-9 when it comes to totals betting.
Entering NFL Week 4, my Best Bets record is 9-10, but I’m down two units. I went 3-3 last week and gained a half of a unit. My hits were Falcons moneyline, Cowboys moneyline, and the Packers covering. Three road dogs came through - two of which were at plus-money.
We are starting to heat up.
Let’s get to my Week 4 NFL picks.
NFL Week 4 Best Bet
Broncos (-6.5) @ Bears (+146)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
We are changing up the top pick this week to be an alternative line against arguably the worst team in the NFL.
The opening line for Broncos-Bears was Denver (-2.5) and is already at (-3) or (-3.5), depending on what book you’re looking at. A 50-point loss should not deter you from taking Denver by a touchdown.
The Bears offensive line is a mess, Justin Fields is regressing, and the Bears defensive secondary, its pride and joy entering the season, could be down to just Tyrique Stevenson as its main starter left standing. As bad as the Broncos offense has looked, its receiving corps can run laps against the thinned-out Bears defense.
Chicago also has a 19% pressure rate and is allowing 6.0 yards per play through three games.
NFL Week 4 ATS Best Bets
Bengals (-2.5) @ Titans (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Despite a short week for Joe Burrow (calf), it is difficult not to like the Bengals against a toothless Titans defense. Tennessee allowed Deshaun Watson to put up his most passing yards and only his second clean sheet in terms of turnovers as a Brown.
A limited Burrow is better than Watson, and the offense just got Ja’Marr Chase off his early-season slump.
Ryan Tannehill is running for his life behind a battered (and bad) offensive line. Cincy picked off Matthew Stafford twice in Week 3, which is bad news for (three interceptions in Week 1).
Chargers (-5.5) vs Raiders (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Los Angeles did its best to give away their Week 3 win at Minnesota, and short of a collapse in Week 4, should get a win with Las Vegas sputtering.
Jimmy Garoppolo is in concussion protocol and should not be expected to play with the NFL paying closer attention to QB concussions after Tua Tagovailoa‘s 2022 season. That means Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell should start, which means a loaded box for Josh Jacobs. The Raiders have the fewest rushing yards over three weeks (185).
The Chargers are going to miss Mike Williams (ACL). It does not mean that the offense will slow down too much. Josh Palmer is fine, and Quentin Johnston will have to learn on the job. Credit goes to Kellen Moore and Justin Herbert for utilizing the tight end position early.
Gerald Everett and Donald Parham will see some of Williams’ target load against a Raider defense that has allowed a TE TD in two of three games and for three straight games of at least three catches and/or 30 yards receiving to the position.
Vegas is averaging 80 fewer yards per game through the air than L.A., which could be the difference between winning or losing by a touchdown, which happens to be this week’s spread.
NFL Week 4 Over/Under Best Bets
Dolphins @ Bills Over 53.5 Points (-105)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
A 70-burger probably added one point to this total before it opened, but the over between the fastest offense and a battering ram of size and speed was always going to be in play this week.
Miami has gone over their implied game totals in two of three games this season, with the one under going against the best defense they faced over the first month of the season. Buffalo has a good defense, but New England is still one of the best.
Buffalo will get their first pass game test with the Dolphins after facing Zach Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Sam Howell. The Bills offense should also incorporate as much James Cook in Week 4 as the Chargers did with Austin Ekeler in Week 1 to chew up the clock and keep a strong Dolphins pass rush honest.
I like this to 54.5 points.
Ravens @ Browns Under 41.5 Points (-115)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
You can also get the under at 41 points for (-108) on DraftKings.
Betting the under in divisional matchups is usually a good call, especially with both teams familiar with their rosters.
Lamar Jackson has had issues playing in Cleveland the past two seasons. He had 179 total yards in 2022 and 233 total yards in 2021. Over those two games, he has one TD and four INT, all in the 2021 contest. For what it’s worth, Jackson has been injured or missed both games in Baltimore since 2021.
The Ravens played through a litany of injuries in Week 3, and if even half of those eight starters/role players are healthier, the Browns offense will look more like the team we saw in Week 2 and not Week 3.
NFL Week 4 Moneyline Best Bets
Falcons (+135) @ Jaguars
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Jaguars offense is not as bad as they looked in Week 3, but there is concern that the Falcons can do what the Texans did to Jacksonville - bleed the game clock.
Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are bullies and should be used often, even if they’re not as successful. Desmond Ridder is who he is and should not be asked to do more than he has to, but we just saw a rookie QB in his third start pick apart the Jags defense.
Calvin Ridley has been quiet after a hot Week 1, and that’s on head coach Doug Pederson. Move your best wideout around the formation!
The Falcons are allowing 180 passing yards per game and deserve credit for keeping Jared Goff under 250 yards in Week 3. Atlanta’s defense is allowing two scores per game, and with Jacksonville playing below expectations, an upset is closer to 50-50 than the odds say.
