NFL Week 16 Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Jan 3, 2023

There is a lot happening around the NFL this week. Not only will we have another 16-game slate spread throughout four action-packed days of NFL football, but we also have a slate of action on Christmas.

If that isn’t enough to get your adrenaline going, this NFL betting slate for Week 16 is loaded with playoff implications.

Last week, my best bets went 3-2. In theory, I should have gone 4-1 for the second time in the past three NFL betting weeks. However, the Patriots decided to take a page out of the old Lions’ playbook from seasons past and throw away a game. Literally.

Anthony Cervino’s 2022 NFL Best Bets Record: 31-48 (-20.5 Units)

All NFL odds and lines are current as of 12:15 p.m. ET, on Tuesday, Dec. 20, at Caesars Sportsbook.

Week 16 Best Bet: Saints vs Browns

Browns -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

In last week’s win over the Ravens, Deshaun Watson looked like Deshaun Watson in a tough but exploitable matchup.

Watson has now led the Browns to a 2-1 record in his first three games since returning, and Cleveland is 3-1 in their past four. They have covered the NFL point spread in all three of those wins.

Watson will look to knock off a Saints team wrapping up a lost season. The Saints have won two of the past four games, with both wins at home and both losses on the road, which is where they will play this week.

Top to bottom, the Browns are the superior team. They could pull away with this one.

The Browns are 5-0 against the spread in their past five games played on Saturday. Look for the Browns to extend that streak and cover with a Week 16 win over New Orleans.

Week 16 Best Bet: Lions vs Panthers

Lions -2.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Lions are one of the more surprising teams in the NFL, winning six of their last seven to improve to 7-7 after starting the season 1-6. They are currently riding a three-game winning streak.

Though the Lions have their struggles on the road, three of their past six wins were away from Ford Field. This is a team getting hot at the right time on both sides of the ball.

While the Panthers on the road will not be a layup, this should be a game that the Lions can win, especially if they want to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Covering the spread in seven straight games, the Lions will win and cover in Week 16.

Keep up with all of our NFL lines for Week 16 and beyond:

Week 16 Best Bet: Seahawks vs Chiefs

Over 48.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

This Seahawks vs. Chiefs game features two of the top seven scoring offenses in the NFL. It also features two bottom-half defenses that can be gashed. Expect points to fly in Arrowhead on Christmas Eve.

Four of the past six Seahawks games have gone Over. The Over failed to hit last week against the 49ers, but that is an outlier game. The 49ers’ defense is playing lights-out football right now.

When it comes to recent Chiefs games and NFL totals betting, the Over is 3-2 in their past five, hitting in two straight against Houston and Denver. Seattle fields an offense that is vastly superior to the offenses of both of those teams.

The Over is 5-0 in the past five meetings between Seattle and Kansas City, a trend to consider in Week 16.

Week 16 Best Bet: Bengals vs Patriots

Bengals -3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Bengals are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. While they have won six straight games, those victories were not always easy.

Last week the Bengals climbed out of an early deficit to defeat the Buccaneers 34-23. Their defense and offense both stepped up and stymied Tom Brady and his team in the second half.

The Patriots, meanwhile, have lost three of their past four. New England’s season is dwindling. The Bengals could be one of the final daggers.

Amidst Cincinnati’s six-game run, they have also covered the spread in all of those games. They should go into New England and do the same in Week 16 facing a Patriots team that is 0-3-1 ATS in their past four games played on Saturday.

Week 16 Best Bet: Raiders vs Steelers

Steelers Moneyline (-145) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

When it comes to NFL moneyline betting, the Raiders are 4-1 in their past five games while the Steelers are 3-1 in their past four. Both sides are coming off wins while losing in their previous outings.

In a game that could go in either direction, the best bet is to err on the side of the home club. The Raiders can outscore you, but normally struggle to contain an offense in rhythm.

If the Steelers can play competent offense while continuing to play stingy defense, this is a game that Pittsburgh can steal. No pun intended.

Following an atrocious start for the Pittsburgh defense, they have conceded fewer than 17 points in their past four games. They will be a tough out at home.


Anthony Cervino

Anthony Cervino is an NFL Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day. He is also a lifelong NFL savant and self-proclaimed league historian. In the industry, Anthony has excelled in both the fantasy football and sports betting space with fantasy his proverbial bread and butter. Anthony has made appearances on SiriusXM, amongst other publications. He is also the co-creator of the FF Faceoff (Faceoff Sports Network) and the FF Faceoff Mental Health Podathon partnered with the Hayden Hurst Foundation. Industry Clout: 15th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for both draft and in-season accuracy (2019) | 8th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for sleepers (2020) | 13th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for in-season accuracy, including 2nd at quarterback and 3rd at tight end (2021).

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