With three NFL Thanksgiving Day games on the Week 12 schedule, the main weekend slate is minimized. The good thing for us NFL bettors is that there are no teams on a bye this week. It wouldn’t be fair for some clubs to have the holiday week off and for others not to.
Therefore, we still have 13 games between Sunday and Monday to bet on.
I finally had a much-needed positive go-round in Week 11. It wasn’t great. I am not satisfied. But I will still take the 3-2 record (+1 unit0).
The good thing is, between the remaining seven weeks in the regular season plus the NFL Playoffs, I still have plenty of time to turn around this NFL betting season and end with positive units.
Anthony Cervino’s 2022 NFL Best Bets Record: 26-35 (-11.5 Units)
All NFL odds and lines are current as of 2 p.m. ET, on Tuesday, Nov. 22.
Week 12 Best Bet: Ravens vs Jaguars
Ravens -4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Last week, the Ravens were laying 14 points at home to the then 3-7 Panthers. They played a 3-3 ball game until the Ravens scored 10 unanswered points to seal the win.
This tells me that the Ravens are once again playing down to their opponents and were mispriced.
However, when it comes to Baltimore’s Week 12 NFL point spread at the Jaguars, it is more fairly priced. In fact, I think there is value here with Lamar Jackson‘s Ravens laying four.
While the Ravens seem to play their games close, they have won each of their past three games by at least five points. We only need to win by four on Sunday.
Meanwhile, in the Jaguars’ past six losses, they have all been decided by at least four points. We are staring at a push if the Ravens win by four at worst, making this an easy NFL bet of the day.
Week 12 Best Bet: Bears vs Jets
Under 39.5 Points (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
When the Bears and Jets square off on Sunday, we will not get a showdown between two of the top five quarterbacks taken in the 2021 NFL Draft class. Instead, we are staring at the possibility of Trevor Siemian vs. Mike White.
While Justin Fields is dealing with a shoulder injury that could be either short-term or season-ending, Zach Wilson was outright benched, which is warranted. He is not it.
With scoring likely coming at a premium, the Under is the play here. Sans Fields, the Bears will be hard-pressed to score points, contrary to how they were popping with their top-notch starter. Meanwhile, the Jets have not been competent on offense since losing Breece Hall because ,like I said, Wilson is not it.
This game should be controlled by the running backs on both sides, which means a slower-tempo click-draining game.
While the Over is 5-0 in Chicago’s past five games, this is one trend to fade. Instead, I will follow the Jets’ NFL Over-Under totals trend.
Their games have gone Under in each of their past five.
Keep up with all of our NFL lines for Week 12 and beyond:
Week 12 Best Bet: Rams vs Chiefs
Over 44 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
I may be going out on a limb here, but I am feeling that the total in the Rams vs. Cheifs game will go Over 44. Here’s why.
The Chiefs have the No. 1 ranked scoring offense, putting up 30 ppg. I have zero doubt they will do their part. However, where the Rams will get points from is in question, considering they are scoring the fifth fewest ppg (16.8).
Furthermore, there is no Cooper Kupp and we may not see Matthew Stafford (concussion) or John Wolford (neck) either. It could very well be Bryce Perkins or a player to be named under center. And that’s okay.
You can score on the Chiefs’ defense, allowing 23.3 ppg, especially in garbage time. And although the Chiefs can rush the passer, Wolford, Perkins, and more than likely the mystery passer will be more mobile than Stafford, which means the extension of plays.
If the Chiefs can give us 30, we only need 15 from the Rams to win this bet. In the event that the Rams fail to give us 15, I am banking on the Kansas City offense getting more possessions due to the backup quarterback narrative.
More opportunities equate to more points for an elite offense.
Week 12 Best Bet: Saints vs 49ers
49ers -9.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
I am feeling the 49ers’ point spread despite the fact that it’s -9.5. It is a two-score number, but this is a San Francisco team that has looked outstanding since the Christian McCaffrey trade. While the 49ers had that initial hiccup against the Chiefs, it was a game expected the 49ers to lose.
However, following that Kansas City loss, the 49ers dominated the Rams and Cardinals while also beating the Chargers in that period. Facing the inferior Saints at home, the 49ers should have another suffocating victory.
If this game were in New Orleans, I would like the Saints to cover. They are a different team at home versus on the road.
In fact, the Saints have failed to cover the spread in their past three road games, while the 49ers are 10-2 in their past 12 games against NFC foes.
Week 12 Best Bet: Texans vs Dolphins
Over 45.5 Points (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Since Tua Tagovailoa has returned from his early-season injury, the Dolphins have performed as one of the best teams in the NFL. Seated in first place in the AFC East, the Dolphins have a lot to play for, including playoff seeding.
The Dolphins can score points at will. While they can throw the ball and pick up big chunks, they can also get you on the ground, notably, since the Jeff Wilson trade. And while the Texans’ have played quality defense at times this season, the Dolphins will be too much for Lovie Smith’s defense.
While the Over is 3-0 in Miami’s past three games, a trend I expect to continue through Week 12, it is important to note that the Over has hit in the last three games the Texans have played facing high-powered offenses: the Eagles, Raiders, and Chargers.
