It’s the craziest week of the NFL season with Thanksgiving occupying three games. 2023 also adds a game on Black Friday, so eight teams will be playing with limited rest.
Week 11 was a bust, especially with the Vikings failing to capture a winnable game on Sunday night. Nevertheless, it’s time to look at one of my favorite weeks for football.
Jeff Hicks’ 2023 NFL Best Bets record: 27-30 (-6.75 units)
*All odds and lines are current as of 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 21.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet
Commanders vs Cowboys -10.5 (-112)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The history of this matchup goes all the way back to the first time Dallas hosted a Thanksgiving Day game.
History will more than likely forget this specific iteration.
The Cowboys have been humming on offense and just came off another strong performance against Carolina. Yes, they welcome a division foe in Washington, but the Commanders defense is arguably the worst in the NFL, at all levels.
While Dallas is moving the ball on offense, it’ll more than likely take it away on defense against a regressing Commanders offensive line.
On top of an opportunistic defense facing a stagnant offense, the Cowboys defense has the second-highest sack percentage in the NFL. Washington allows the fourth-highest sack rate heading into Week 12.
If you and your family/friends eat turkey earlier in the day on Thanksgiving, the Tryptophan may kick in in time for this matchup.
[pick id= “159223" show-timer ="yes" show-second ="yes"]
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NFL Week 12 ATS Best Bets
Packers vs Lions -7.5 (-109)
BetRivers Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
I got this when it opened at (-7), so the number settling one-half point higher does not bother me as much despite it not moving one way or another.
The Lions showed in under five minutes last week that they can put up points in a hurry. Chicago’s secondary is arguably better than Green Bay’s, and we know how quickly the Detroit offensive line can take over.
Jordan Love looked better against the Chargers pass defense, but that’s a low bar considering only Washington has a worse secondary.
The Lions can take a commanding division lead with a win over Green Bay, something Minnesota does not want after a disappointing loss in Denver.
The Packers are bottom 10 in third downs allowed per game (5.6), which means another strong running performance from David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs can keep Green Bay from challenging the Detroit secondary.
[pick id= “159225" show-timer ="yes" show-second ="yes"]
Keep up with all of our NFL lines for Week 12 and beyond:
Rams vs Cardinals +1 (-112)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Most sportsbooks are flipping to Cardinals (-1), so this number is not long for this world.
If this game was in Los Angeles, I may just skip the spread, but I like what Arizona has done in two games with Kyler Murray back, and the Rams could (should?) be without Cooper Kupp (low ankle sprain). Matt Stafford without Kupp is a different QB.
Both teams are in the top half of the league in plays per second, which could mean fireworks (and turnovers). Both offenses have creativity, but the Rams lack depth on defense. I kind of trust Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon to get different on defense to slow down what little speed L.A. has.
[pick id= “159226"]
NFL Week 12 Over/Under Best Bets
Saints vs Falcons Under 42.5 Points (-110)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This number has been at 42.5 or 42, so get your half-point now.
We could be seeing Jameis Winston (bad) against Desmond Ridder (worse) in a game that may have as many turnovers as red zone trips.
Injuries have also taken away a trusted WR from the Saints, as Michael Thomas (knee) expected to miss some time. There is some hope with Rashid Shaheed and rookie A.T. Perry expected to slot in with Chris Olave, but Atlanta is only allowing 200.4 passing yards per game, and only 170.8 at home.
Trusting Falcons HC Arthur Smith to lead a complete game is like asking for the moon and the stars.
[pick id= “159228"]
Patriots vs Giants Under 33.5 Points (-109)
BetRivers Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This number is dangerously low, but it’s justified as neither team has an offense that can overcome the talent of their opposing defense.
Tommy DeVito deserves praise for his performance in Week 11. His reward is a rested Patriots defense that can pressure the quarterback, especially DT Christian Barmore. He is seeing double teams 62% of the time and is still top 10 in pass rush win rate, according to ESPN.
The Patriots offense has the imagination of a rock, and outside of Demario Douglas, has little speed to worry about.
[pick id= “159231"]
NFL Week 12 Moneyline Best Bets
Browns (+116) vs Broncos
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
I whiffed on Vikings Moneyline against the same Broncos team Week 11, but with the Browns elite defense coming to Denver, it’s difficult to lean on the Broncos to cover another (-2.5) spread, let alone win.
Denver has little to get excited about in terms of a pass rush, which is the best news I have for Dorian Thompson-Robinson. I also believe the rookie has superior pass catchers to work with, and we know how bad the Broncos have been against top wideouts. Patrick Surtain II can’t guard everyone.
Only three teams allow their QB to get sacked more than the Broncos.
Both teams are in the playoff hunt, so even though this isn’t a marquee matchup, it will be played as if the season is on the line for both squads. I want the team with the best talent that has also played better over a longer period of time.
[pick id= “159232"]
