It is Week 11 of the NFL season and at this point of the year, the NFL Playoffs picture is beginning to take shape.
Although there is still a lot of time left and anything can happen, we already know the teams with no shot. We can also identify the middling teams that can still make a run, which makes for terrific NFL betting markets to handicap.
When it comes to my NFL betting picks for Week 10, it was another down week. My picks were close, but we know that doesn’t matter. We need wins.
Anthony Cervino’s 2022 NFL Best Bets Record: 23-33 (-12.5 Units)
All NFL odds and lines are current as of 2 p.m. ET, on Tuesday, Nov. 15, at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Cowboys vs Vikings Best Bet
Cowboys Moneyline (-124)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Cowboys let me down last week. However, I should have known that Aaron Rodgers would once again haunt the Dallas Cowboys as he has done for most of his career. However, now the tables are turned and history is on the side of the Cowboys.
This is because the Cowboys will get Kirk Cousins, who is 2-8 in his career against Dallas. Despite the fact that the Vikings are two games better than the Cowboys record-wise, these teams are very much evenly matched across the board.
I am not touching the NFL point spread here. While the Cowboys are 3-1 straight up in their past four games against the Vikings, they are 2-2 against the spread in that time period.
I feel safer taking the Cowboys when it comes to NFL moneyline betting here. Dallas is 3-0 outright in their past games in Minnesota, with two of those wins over Cousins and the Vikings coming at the hands of backup quarterbacks Andy Dalton and Cooper Rush.
The Cowboys had their letdown game last week just like the Eagles had theirs. The Vikings are due for one. It comes in Week 11 in my NFL bet of the day.
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Commanders vs Texans Best Bet
Commanders Moneyline (-152)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Commanders are one of the most surprising teams in the NFL. While many have left them dead in the water following a 1-4 start to the year, they have now gone 4-1 in their past five games and sit with a 5-5 record, right in the mix for an NFC Wild Card spot.
Washington is coming off their most-impressive win of the season, a 32-21 Monday night victory over the previously-unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles. With Chase Young expected to be activated for Week 11’s matchup with the Texans, the Commanders are in a prime spot to pick up another road win and go one game over .500.
We are once again seeing the locker room rally behind Taylor Heinicke, who gives the team more hope than Carson Wentz.
Both the Texans and Commanders can run the football. However, the difference is that the Commanders could stop the run, especially in the wake of Young’s return, while the Texans are one of the worst teams in the NFL at containing enemy rushers.
This is a spot where I trust the rejuvenated Commanders over the reeling Texans.
Browns vs Bills Best Bet
Bills -8.5 (-105)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Bills have dropped two consecutive games and now their backs are up against the wall. Bruised and beaten on both sides of the ball, the Bills appear to be in a must-win spot now that they are in second place in the AFC East, a division they once controlled.
The good thing is that they get the Browns. While the Browns can put up a fight with Jacoby Brissett, the Cleveland defense will not show up. And when it comes to Browns vs Bills mismatches, this looks like a game that the Bills will dominate and win by two scores.
While the Bills are ranked first in total yards, they are also second in passing yards and points. Meanwhile, the Browns’ defense is ranked 17th in total yards, 19th in passing yards, and second in points allowed.
The only shot the Browns have at covering the spread is if they can control the clock with Nick Chubb. They’ll also need to force some Bills turnovers, a stat that has snake-bitten Buffalo all season long and left them a flawed club.
While both teams have only covered their NFL point spreads four times each this season, this is a spot at home where the Bills should easily cover, snapping a three-game streak in which they have failed to do so.
Chiefs vs Chargers Best Bet
Over 50 Points (-110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
When the Chiefs and Chargers square off, we should expect points to fly. At least 51 combined points have been scored in each of the past four meetings between these teams, with the total going Over two times in those four outings.
In this matchup, the NFL Over-Under total is set at 50 points, which is reasonably low for a matchup featuring two of the most potent offenses in the NFL, but also two of the worst defenses in terms of points allowed.
Recent betting trends on either side suggest the Under is the play. However, both sides were playing inferior offensive opponents in most of their recent matchups (the Bills vs Chiefs game was the lone exception).
If recent Patrick Mahomes vs Justin Herbert history once again prevails, this total going Over 50 is the right play.
Keep in mind that the Over is 7-1 in the past eight games the Chiefs have played on the road.
Raiders vs Broncos Best Bet
Broncos -2.5 (-110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
In the offseason, many projected both the Broncos and Raiders to be contending for playoff spots in Week 11. That is far from the case as both of these teams have been utter dumpster fires in 2022, with no signs of turning it around.
Russell Wilson and the Broncos are desperate for a win. With an offense that can’t get out of its own way, they just need to score enough points to allow one of the league’s best shutdown defenses to do its job. They should be able to do that against the Raiders, who could be on the brink of firing head coach Josh McDaniels.
While the Raiders are 5-0 straight up against the Broncos in their past five meetings, this could be the game where the streak is snapped. While the Raiders are suffering from injuries, notably on offense, they get a Denver defense ranked No. 1 in points allowed.
Look for the Broncos to finally get a win and cover the points in a low-scoring Week 11 snoozer.