The USFL served up another helping of exciting springtime gridiron action in Week 3 with various outcomes, some of which were certainly a bit surprising.
As my early body of work attests, predicting outcomes in a new league is undoubtedly a bit of a rollercoaster. After a 4-0 start in Week 1, I’ve slumped to 1-7 over the next two weeks, with Week 3 featuring a couple of particularly narrow misses in two of the wagers.
Nevertheless, the picture of each team and the way they deploy personnel seems to get a bit clearer each week, for the most part. We will look to get back on track this week while utilizing what has been gleaned thus far.
All USFL Week 4 betting odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Thursday, May 5 at 3 p.m. ET.
- Juan Blanco USFL Week 3 Betting Record: 0-4
- Juan Blanco USFL Season Betting Record: 5-7
USFL Best Bets: Philadelphia Stars vs Michigan Panthers
Philadelphia Stars vs Michigan Panthers Prediction
The Stars didn’t just suffer a 24-16 defeat at the hands of the Generals in Week 3, but they also sustained a significant personnel loss. Quarterback Bryan Scott, who had been a pleasant surprise to open the season, went down with ankle and knee injuries that will reportedly keep him out for multiple weeks.
Case Cookus, who has some NFL experience, stepped in and was reasonably effective with a 13-for-20, 146-yard, one-touchdown showing in emergency duty.
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The Panthers shined on both sides of the ball in Week 3, shutting out the Maulers 24-0 for their first win of the season.
Head coach Jeff Fisher opted to roll with Paxton Lynch under center to start the game, but Shea Patterson, whose benching stemmed from a highly ineffective Week 2 effort, still had to come in and play the bulk of the contest after Lynch suffered lower leg injuries that are expected to keep him out Week 4.
Michigan primarily got it done with the run game and defense in their dominant victory, as the air attack only mustered 71 passing yards and 2.8 yards per attempt. However, Philadelphia’s defense is a good elixir for any offense, as the Stars have given up the third-most points (70) through three weeks.
Michigan Panthers 20, Philadelphia Stars 18
Stars vs Panthers Best Bet: Panthers Moneyline (-120)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Panthers may not be able to do much through the air, but Philadelphia’s inconsistent defense may give them the best chance to have some success running a balanced offense.
Meanwhile, Michigan’s ground attack looks legit, with Reggie Corbin becoming the latest member of Fisher’s backfield arsenal to break out.
With Cookus likely to have some rough patches in his first start, I like the Panthers to notch a one-possession win in our USFL Bet of the Day.
USFL Best Bets: New Jersey Generals vs Pittsburgh Maulers
New Jersey Generals vs Pittsburgh Maulers Prediction
Last week, the Generals notched the win against the Stars with a late surge that included 14 points in the fourth quarter. New Jersey once again went with a two-quarterback attack in which both Luis Perez and De’Andre Johnson had success.
Meanwhile, Trey Williams (110 rushing yards, 44 receiving yards) and Darius Victor (49 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 31 receiving yards) spearheaded a highly effective ground game that also included 91 rushing yards and a touchdown from Johnson.
In turn, the Maulers continued to be one of the most challenging teams in the league to figure out through three games. Pittsburgh has the worst point differential by far (-45), putting up just 26 through three games while allowing 71.
What’s more, 23 of those 26 points came in Week 2. The quarterback duo of Josh Love and Kyle Lauletta isn’t necessarily putting up unacceptable numbers. Still, the bottom line is they can’t seem to get Pittsburgh in position to score with any degree of consistency, which also puts more pressure on the team’s defense.
New Jersey Generals 27, Pittsburgh Maulers 12
Generals vs Maulers Best Bet: Generals -9.5 (-110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
New Jersey is one team that does seem to have a pretty good grasp on its offensive personnel and how to maximize its talent, giving me confidence they will continue to add to their current average of 19.1 points per game.
Meanwhile, the Maulers aren’t entirely devoid of talent and should therefore be able to avoid a second straight shutout, but I still see their offense as too haphazard to do much. The Generals moneyline price is astronomical at -440, but I can roll with a double-digit win for Mike Reilly‘s crew.
USFL Best Bets: Tampa Bay Bandits vs Birmingham Stallions
Tampa Bay Bandits vs Birmingham Stallions Prediction
The Bandits narrowly avoided a second straight loss in Week 3 by scoring 10 fourth-quarter points, as Jordan Ta’amu made up for a late interception by leading an eight-play, 48-yard drive that culminated in the game-winning field goal. Ta’amu’s overall performance improved from Week 2, when he threw for just 62 yards, one interception, and completed less than 50% of his passes.
The Stallions remained the USFL’s only undefeated team by impressively knocking off the previously-unbeaten Breakers 22-13. Birmingham’s offense continued to thrive with J’Mar Smith, who completed under 40% of his passes but still recorded a pair of scoring tosses and added 57 rushing yards.
Victor Bolden and Marlon Williams continue to look like legitimate difference-makers in the receiving corps, and tight end Cary Angeline showed some promise with four catches for 66 yards.
Birmingham’s offense, which features a pair of capable running backs in Tony Brooks-James and C.J. Marable, should also be able to move up and down the field in this matchup. The Bandits’ defense was gashed by Gamblers running back Mark Thompson for 147 yards (6.1 per carry) and a touchdown in Week 3.
I see the Stallions having just a bit more firepower in what should be an entertaining contest.
Birmingham Stallions 24, Tampa Bay Bandits 20
Bandits vs Stallions Best Bet: Over 41 Points (-110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
These two offenses can put up some points, especially with Ta’amu and wideout Derrick Dillon (6-124-1) seemingly having developed a very effective connection and running back Juwan Washington also showing some promise (15-65-1 on the ground) in Week 3.
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The Stallions’ defense is legit and can cover, so I see Ta’amu having trouble at times getting his team down the field. Nevertheless, I expect both teams to do enough to send the game at least slightly over the projected total.
USFL Best Bets: Houston Gamblers vs New Orleans Breakers
Houston Gamblers vs New Orleans Breakers Prediction
The Gamblers have stuck with Clayton Thorson at quarterback and it nearly paid off in Week 3. Houston fell just a couple of points short of its second victory, dropping a tightly-contested game to the Bandits 27-26 on a last-second field goal.
Thorson had his best game yet with a 240-yard, two-touchdown effort. Additionally, running back Mark Thompson, who had already impressed over the first two games, exploded for a 147-yard, one-touchdown performance.
Meanwhile, the Breakers suffered their first loss of the season against the league’s only other undefeated squad coming into Week 3, the Stallions. Birmingham’s impressive defense proved to be too much for New Orleans’ talented offense to overcome.
Breakers QB Kyle Sloter hit his stride as the game went on and finished with 241 yards and two touchdowns — both to Johnnie Dixon — while running back Jordan Ellis took on a workhorse role with T.J. Logan out with a foot injury.
Logan has a chance to return in Week 4, and Houston’s defense, which has given up 24 points per game through three weeks, certainly isn’t the caliber of the Stallions’. Given New Orleans’ ability to run a balanced attack, I see the Breakers getting right back in the win column with a strong performance that will include some turnovers caused by their aggressive defense.
New Orleans Breakers 28, Houston Gamblers 10
Breakers vs Gamblers Best Bet: Breakers -4.5 (-110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Thorson has been improving, but he’s still thrown five interceptions in three games. The Breakers can pressure the quarterback and ball-hawk in the secondary, and their offense should ultimately prove too much for Houston’s spotty defense to handle.
As such, I see Larry Fedora‘s crew covering a relatively modest number without too much trouble.
