We’re set for Week 4 of USFL action, and we have an interesting mix of teams matching up over the four games. There’s one especially intriguing underdog that stands out this week, as well as a couple of totals that we’ll look to exploit.
Each week through the USFL Championship Game in July, The Game Day will offer a betting prediction for each game on the schedule.
These USFL odds are fresh as of Wednesday, May 3, at noon ET.
USFL Week 4 Predictions & Best Bets
Over 44.5 Points (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook
Gamblers vs Stars Betting • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Gamblers are one of the surprises of the first three weeks of the season, with quarterback Kenji Bahar displaying plenty of improvement over last season and tossing five touchdowns across the last two games.
Meanwhile, the Stars turned in a rare offensive dud in Week 3 but still boast plenty of talent on that side of the ball and face a defensively vulnerable team in Houston. The Gamblers have surrendered the second-most points (93) and third-most total yards per game (336).
Philly has given up 22.7 points per game in its own right, setting up the Over as not only my pick in this spot, but also as my USFL pick of the day.
Showboats +6.5 (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook
Showboats vs Panthers Betting • WAGER: 1 Unit
As expected, the Showboats were much better in Week 3 against the Gamblers than during a 42-2 throttling at the hands of the Stallions in Week 2.
Memphis came up just short of our predicted cover of three points due to Houston’s late touchdown drive, but I see Todd Haley’s squad playing another close game in Week 4.
The Showboats’ offense showed plenty of life with Cole Kelley at quarterback and has the ability to roll out a balanced attack considering the talents of the backfield duo of Alex Collins and Kerrith Whyte.
Memphis’ defense is a concern after surrendering a USFL-high 33 points per contest through three weeks, but the recent shortcomings of Michigan’s air attack should help keep the Showboats close.
Breakers (-145) • DraftKings Sportsbook
Breakers vs Generals Betting • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Breakers are the last undefeated team standing thanks in large part to their offense, which is averaging a USFL-high 35 points per contest and 393 total yards per game.
CFL import/reigning Grey Cup champ McLeod Bethel-Thompson has been an instant hit by throwing for 837 yards with six touchdowns and one interception.
Meanwhile, fellow CFL alum Wes Hills has ripped the starting running back job from Anthony Jones by rushing for 301 yards and six touchdowns while adding six receptions over the last two games.
New Orleans’ defense has given up 25.7 points per game but the second-fewest total yards per contest (254.7). Therefore, if the Breakers can limit the big plays from New Jersey’s talented but inconsistent offense, they should have just enough to pull out a win.
Under 44 Points (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook
Stallions vs Maulers Betting • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Stallions’ defense received an unexpected humbling in Week 3 at the hands of the Breakers, with New Orleans hanging 45 points on them.
It’s likely a safe assumption Birmingham will be out to atone for the embarrassment, and the Maulers shape up as an appealing target.
Pittsburgh did manage its first win of the season in Week 3 against the Stars, but quarterback Troy Williams threw for just 96 yards on 18 attempts while completing 55.6 percent of his passes.
Through three games, Pittsburgh is averaging a league-low 13 points per contest and 174.7 total yards per game. In turn, Birmingham is still yielding just 19 points per game even after last week’s shellacking.
With Pittsburgh’s defense also tough – the Maulers are allowing an even more impressively stingy 18.3 points per contest – the Under seems like the way to go here.
