After an eventful NFL trade deadline, Week 10 kicks off on Thursday night when the Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) visit the Denver Broncos (7-2) in an AFC West showdown.
Denver extended its winning streak to six games on Sunday with an 18-15 victory over the Houston Texans. Meanwhile, Las Vegas lost for the fourth time in five tries, falling 30-29 in overtime to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Below, I’ll assess the latest Raiders vs Broncos odds and make my TNF predictions for Week 10.
Updated TNF Odds Comparison
The Broncos are 9.5-point home favorites in the latest TNF odds, which makes sense considering the fortunes of each team so far this season.
The Over/Under sits at 42.5 points, making it one of the lower totals on the NFL Week 10 slate.
All NFL odds referenced for these TNF Week 10 predictions are current as of Wednesday, Nov. 5, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
TNF Implied Score & Team Totals
Broncos 26, Raiders 16.5
These implied TNF team totals are close reflections of each team’s scoring average on the season. Denver puts up 25 points per game, while Las Vegas averages 16.5.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Thursday Night Football Prediction
TNF Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Raiders 20
I’m backing the Broncos to win at home on Thursday Night Football in a game that might be closer than some expect.
Denver boasts one of the league’s best defenses, allowing 18.4 points per game, but Bo Nix and the offense have struggled to find the end zone consistently.
That inefficiency has forced Sean Payton’s team to grind out games all season long. Five of the Broncos’ seven wins have come by eight points or fewer, including victories over the Titans, Giants, and Jets.
The Raiders fall into a similar category as those teams, and they’re coming off one of their better performances of the season.
Las Vegas could make a game of this, but ultimately, Denver should prevail.
Thursday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these Thursday Night Football bet tips and trends in mind before making your Raiders vs Broncos best bets.
- The Broncos are 4-4-1 against the spread this season, while the Raiders are 3-5.
- Unders are 6-3 in Denver’s games and 5-3 in Las Vegas’ games.
- The Raiders had won eight straight matchups between these teams before losing both meetings last season.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets
TNF Over/Under Pick: Raiders @ Broncos Over 42.5 Points (-118)
Thursday night’s contest shouldn’t be a shootout, but I’m backing the Broncos and Raiders to do enough to exceed this low total.
Las Vegas put up a season-high 29 points last week, with tight end Brock Bowers catching three touchdowns from Geno Smith in his return from injury. Smith could get the benefit of facing a Denver secondary without standout corner Patrick Surtain II (pectoral), who missed last week and didn’t practice Tuesday.
The Raiders’ defense has allowed at least 25 points in four of their last five games, with the lone exception being the woeful Tennessee Titans, so Nix and Co. should have success. He’ll also get wideout Marvin Mims Jr. back from a concussion, which should bolster the passing attack.
I’m backing the Over as my NFL pick of the day for Thursday Night Football.
TNF Pick Against the Spread: Raiders +9.5 (-110) @ Broncos
I could see this TNF spread pick going horribly wrong, but I can’t lay this many points with the Broncos against anyone, even at home.
The Raiders have been hit and miss, but Bowers’ return to the lineup gives me confidence that Las Vegas can find a way to move the ball and put up some points.
Denver also has a massive game against the Chiefs next Sunday ahead of its Week 12 bye, so Payton will likely be more conservative on a short week, especially with someone as important as Surtain.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bet
TNF Prop: Brock Bowers: 7+ Receptions (+119)
For my Thursday Night Football prop bet, I’m backing Raiders tight end Brock Bowers to make at least seven catches.
The Georgia product hit this mark in eight of 17 games during his sensational rookie campaign, but was limited to five or fewer catches in his first four outings this season while dealing with a knee injury.
After missing three games to get healthy, he returned to the lineup last week and caught 12 of 13 targets for 127 yards and three scores.
Bowers will likely be the focal point of the Raiders’ offense on Thursday, and he could get peppered with targets again if Las Vegas has to play from behind.
Thursday Night Football Parlay
Best TNF Same-Game Parlay (+625)
- Raiders +9.5 (-110)
- J.K. Dobbins: Anytime Touchdown (-125)
- Geno Smith: 1+ Interceptions Thrown (-175)
My Week 10 TNF parlay has negative correlation, which helps boost our odds on three favorable outcomes.
I’m starting with Las Vegas to cover the spread, as Denver owns just two double-digit victories in nine games this season. The Raiders showed some fight last week, and that should continue against a division rival.
I’m also backing Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins to score a touchdown. Dobbins has four scores on the year but has gone four games without finding paydirt. He has a great matchup against a Las Vegas defense tied for the second-most rushing touchdowns allowed (12) in the NFL this season.
To wrap things up, I’ll take Geno Smith to throw an interception. Smith shares the league lead in picks with 11, and he has hit this prop in six of eight games this year. Denver’s defense only has four interceptions, but there’s a lot of talent in this secondary, even if Surtain sits.
