The Week 7 edition of Thursday Night Football will see the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) visit the reeling Cincinnati Bengals (2-4) in an AFC North showdown.
Pittsburgh picked up its third straight victory on Sunday, defeating the Cleveland Browns 23-9. Meanwhile, the Bengals dropped their fourth consecutive contest, falling 27-18 to the Green Bay Packers.
Below, I’ll dive into my TNF predictions and best bets for this Steelers vs Bengals matchup.
Updated TNF Odds Comparison
Oddsmakers expect the Steelers to continue their winning ways against the Bengals on Thursday, as they are favorites of nearly a touchdown on the road.
The Over/Under sits at 43.5 points, which feels a little low considering Cincinnati’s struggles on defense.
All NFL odds referenced below are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, and current as of Wednesday, Oct. 15.
TNF Implied Score & Team Totals
Steelers 24.5, Bengals 19
Pittsburgh is projected right around its season average of 23.8 points per game, while Cincinnati is expected to outperform its season average (17.2) in quarterback Joe Flacco’s second start with the team.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Thursday Night Football Prediction
TNF Score Prediction: Steelers 27, Bengals 20
The Bengals are in desperate need of a win, but I don’t see them snapping their skid on Thursday.
The short week doesn’t do Cincinnati any favors, as Flacco will start his second game in just nine days with the organization. The 40-year-old threw for 219 yards and a pair of scores last week in Green Bay, but both touchdown passes came with the Bengals trailing by multiple scores.
Pittsburgh isn’t lighting the world on fire on offense, but 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers is doing his job as its point guard by distributing the ball to his playmakers.
Look for Rodgers to engineer another solid performance, and for Pittsburgh to lean on its defense in a key divisional win.
Thursday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these bet tips and trends in mind before making your Steelers vs Bengals bets.
- Pittsburgh has won its last three trips to Cincinnati.
- The Bengals are 0-4 without quarterback Joe Burrow.
- The Steelers are 2-0 on the road this season.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets
TNF Over/Under Pick: Steelers @ Bengals Over 43.5 Points (-112)
The Bengals have the third-worst scoring defense in the NFL this season, allowing 30.5 points per game. They’ve conceded at least 27 points in four straight, so Pittsburgh should get into the 20s for the third consecutive game without too much trouble.
On the other side, Flacco gives the Cincy offense a decent floor, as he’ll be more willing to throw it up to talented wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. They should have some success against a Steelers defense that has performed well the last two weeks, albeit against Dillon Gabriel and Carson Wentz.
I think Flacco is a slight upgrade on those two, so I’m taking the Over as my NFL play of the day.
TNF Pick Against the Spread: Steelers -5.5 (-110) at Bengals
I’m not going to deny it: laying this many points with the Steelers on the road is uncomfortable.
However, Pittsburgh has covered this number in each of its previous two trips to Cincinnati (both wins by exactly six points), and the Bengals have lost by nine or more points in four straight since Burrow got hurt.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bet
TNF Prop: Jaylen Warren Over 49.5 Rush Yards (-113)
Warren and Kenneth Gainwell have split the backfield work for the Steelers this season, but I think Warren is the superior talent.
He started to show that on Sunday, rushing for a season-high 52 yards on 11 carries against one of the NFL’s best defenses.
The 26-year-old has a great matchup on Thursday against the Bengals, who have allowed 135.7 rushing yards per game this season, the fifth-most in the NFL.
Look for Warren to continue his upward trend in what should be a positive game script for the Steelers.
Thursday Night Football Parlay
Best TNF Same-Game Parlay (+410)
- Steelers ML
- Over 43.5 Points
- Jaylen Warren: 40+ Rushing Yards
- Tee Higgins: 40+ Receiving Yards
My Week 7 TNF same-game parlay encompasses a lot of my favorite plays that we’ve already discussed.
I like the Steelers to win, the Over to hit, and Pittsburgh running back Jaylen Warren to have success on the ground. For this play, we’ll ask Warren to gain 40 yards, something he has done in three of four games this season.
Lastly, I’ll add Tee Higgins to contribute 40 receiving yards for the Bengals in a game where they should be playing from behind. Higgins made a season-high five catches on eight targets for 62 yards in his first game with Flacco. He should stand to benefit from any improved quarterback play after a few rough weeks with Jake Browning under center.
