Thursday Night Football features an AFC West clash between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers in Week 16.
The Broncos (9-5) took care of business vs the Colts last week, while the Chargers (8-6) were blown out by the Buccaneers.
On this page, we’ll dive into the Broncos vs Chargers matchup, including best bets and predictions for this Week 16 game.
Frank Ammirante 2024 TNF Betting Record: 27-26 (+5.3 units)
Broncos vs Chargers TNF Odds Comparison
The Chargers are short home favorites because they had a convincing win vs the Broncos in their last matchup, but it may look a bit different this time.
All NFL odds referenced below are courtesy as of DraftKings Sportsbook, and current as of Thursday, Dec. 19.
TNF Implied Score & Team Totals
Chargers 21.75, Broncos 19.25
We’ve got a projected low-scoring divisional game with wild-card implications.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Thursday Night Football Prediction
TNF Score Prediction: Broncos 20, Chargers 17
The Broncos are trying to avoid the sweep vs the Chargers in this Thursday Night Football matchup.
Los Angeles has hit a wall lately, losing three of their last four games.
Even in their lone win vs the Falcons, they were out-gained 350-to-187 and bailed out by four interceptions from Kirk Cousins.
Meanwhile, the Broncos are on a four-game winning streak, led by promising rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
When these two teams met in Week 6, the Chargers won 23-16, but Nix has been improved significantly since then, throwing for 15 touchdowns and six interceptions in eight games.
While I expect the Chargers to play much better following a blowout loss vs the Bucs, I still lean Broncos because of their recent form.
Thursday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these bet tips and trends in mind before making your Broncos vs Chargers bets.
- The Chargers have allowed 27+ points in three of their last five games.
- The Broncos have scored 29+ points in four consecutive games.
- If the Chargers (8-6) lose, the Colts (6-8), Dolphins (6-8), and Bengals (6-8) can get right back in the AFC Wild Card race.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets
TNF Over/Under Pick: Broncos @ Chargers Under 41 Points (-108)
Despite recent trends, I’m riding with the Under here. This has the look of a classic divisional game on a short week that becomes closely contested and low-scoring.
Both the Broncos (1st in EPA) and Chargers (8th in EPA) have stout defenses.
These two teams combined for only 39 points in their previous matchup this season.
Bet on the Under in our NFL play of the day.
TNF Pick Against the Spread: Broncos +2.5 (-105) at Chargers
I prefer taking the points with the Broncos in what I project to be a low-scoring game.
We were originally getting at the key number of three, allowing us to push if Denver loses by a field goal, but the spread has moved to +2.5, just as I predicted earlier this week.
Even though it’s not nearly as appealing to get +2.5 as +3, I’ll still ride with the Broncos because I think they have a legit chance of winning outright.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bet
TNF Prop Bet: Gus Edwards Longest Rush: Under 10.5 (-135)
Gus Edwards has looked like a plodder this season, failing to generate explosive plays.
The former Raven has failed to produce a run longer than 10 yards in eight of 10 games.
We saw Kimani Vidal (60%) out-snap Edwards (40%) last week. While that was partly because the Chargers were playing from behind, it’s still worth noting when you consider Edwards’ inefficient production.
This doesn’t feel like a matchup for Edwards to get back on track, as the Broncos are allowing only 3.84 yards per carry, which ranks 3rd in the NFL.
Thursday Night Football Parlay
TNF SGP (+244):
- Javonte Williams: Over 2.5 Receptions (-120)
- Audric Estime: Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Jaleel McLaughlin is out for this game, opening up opportunity for both Javonte Williams and Audric Estime.
Despite an underwhelming season for Javonte, it’s clear that Sean Payton trusts him in pass protection. With McLaughlin out, there’s a good chance that Javonte will have more chances to rack up receptions.
The veteran running back has at least three targets in three of his last four games.
I’ll add Estime to go Over 25.5 rushing yards because he’s more efficient than Javonte. We could see the rookie set a season-high in rush attempts in this one, which would be good news for this prop.
We saw Estime rush 14 times for 53 yards against the Chiefs earlier this season. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a similar line vs the Broncos tonight.
