In Week 13, there are three NFL games on Thanksgiving Day, including one in the weekly Thursday Night Football slot.
For more on Thursday’s holiday nightcap, please check out our Bengals vs Ravens predictions.
NFL Week 12 kicks off on Thursday night when the Buffalo Bills (7-3) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (5-5) in an AFC showdown.
The Bills are coming off a bounce-back win over the Bucs, while the Texans have now won two games in a row with Davis Mills filling in at quarterback for the injured C.J. Stroud.
Below, I’ll take a look at the latest Bills vs Texans odds and make my TNF predictions for Week 12.
Updated TNF Odds Comparison
The Bills are six-point road favorites in the latest TNF odds, while the Over/Under sits at 43.5 total points.
All NFL odds referenced for these TNF Week 12 predictions are current as of Wednesday, Nov. 19, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
TNF Implied Score & Team Totals
Bills 24.75, Texans 18.75
The Bills are projected to win a relatively low-scoring game against a tough Texans defense.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Thursday Night Football Prediction
TNF Score Prediction: Bills 21, Texans 17
I’m predicting that we’ll see a low-scoring game that is closer than the line suggests in this Thursday Night Football matchup.
Let’s rewind to last season when these two teams met. Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen struggled mightily against this Texans defense, completing only 9-of-30 passes for 131 yards, averaging an abysmal 4.4 yards per attempt in a 23-20 loss.. This is the same group that Allen saw last year, so we could see another disappointing performance.
The Texans defense is good enough to keep this game close, ranking 1st in EPA vs the pass and 4th against the run.
On top of that, the Bills have been gashed on the ground lately, most recently by Sean Tucker. The Texans can establish the run with Woody Marks, mixed in with Nick Chubb, to keep the Bills off the field.
While the Bills should be able to squeak this one out, the spread and total feel a little too high.
Thursday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these Thursday Night Football bet tips and trends in mind before making your Bills vs Texans best bets.
- The Texans are 3-2 against the spread at home this season.
- The Bills are 2-2 against the spread on the road this year.
- Unders are 6-3-1 in Texans games.
- Overs are 5-5 in Bills games.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets
TNF Over/Under Pick: Bills @ Texans Under 43.5 Points (-115)
I like that we’re getting past the key number of 43 in this Thursday Night Football over/under. This means that if we get a common score line like 23-20, we’ll hit this wager.
There are two factors at play with this. For one, the Texans have the best pass defense in the NFL. That could slow down the Bills’ passing game, forcing them to try to establish the run with James Cook.
On top of that, the Bills have struggled defending the run, giving up huge games to Sean Tucker and De’Von Achane in the last two games. Efficient running could slow down this game, which bodes well for the under.
Add in the fact that Thursday Night Football is usually a slopfest, and you can see why this is an appealing wager.
Give me the Under as my NFL pick of the day for Thursday Night Football.
TNF Pick Against the Spread: Texans +6 (-112) vs Bills
As mentioned earlier in this column, the Texans defense gave Allen a lot of issues in their 23-20 win last season. With how inconsistent the Bills have been this year — think back to their disappointing loss to the lowly Falcons — it’s hard to trust them laying six points on the road on a short week.
Even though C.J. Stroud is out for this game, Davis Mills has done a good job finding Nico Collins downfield. Mills just has to play mistake-free football, focusing on establishing the run against this porous defense.
With that in mind, I’ll take the Texans to keep this one close. This defense is just too good right now.
For context, the Texans’ two home losses were by one and three points.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bet
TNF Prop: Josh Allen Longest Completion Under 37.5 Yards (-115)
For my Thursday Night Football prop bet, I’m fading Allen’s longest completion.
As mentioned above, the Texans rank 1st in EPA against the pass. Opposing quarterbacks have gone Under 37.5 longest completion in seven of 10 games this season.
The Bills have one of the worst groups of wide receivers in the NFL. I think they’re going to have a tough time getting open against this elite secondary.
Thursday Night Football Parlay
Best TNF Same-Game Parlay (+240)
- Woody Marks: Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
- Josh Allen: Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-112)
My Week 12 TNF parlay starts with Woody Marks Over 64.5 rushing yards.
We’ve seen Sean Tucker (106 yards) and De’Von Achane (174 yards) comfortably fly past this number in the last two games. Marks has been much better at home: 63, 27, 62, and 69 yards in his last four.
We also saw Marks out-carry Nick Chubb 18-to-3 last week, so it’s clear that the rookie is taking over this backfield.
I’ll double down on my Allen fade by taking him Under 224.5 passing yards. As mentioned, the Texans have the best pass defense in the NFL.
Here’s another stat for you: nine of 10 opposing quarterbacks have gone Under 224.5 passing yards vs the Texans this season.
