NFL Week 11 kicks off on Thursday night when the New York Jets (2-7) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the rival New England Patriots (8-2) in an AFC East showdown.
After starting the season 1-2, the Patriots have reeled off seven consecutive victories, with quarterback Drake Maye vaulting himself into the NFL MVP conversation. The Jets enter this contest on a two-game winning streak, having rebounded from an 0-7 start with wins over the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals.
Below, I’ll assess the latest Jets vs Patriots odds and make my TNF predictions for Week 11.
Updated TNF Odds Comparison
The Patriots are 12.5-point home favorites in the latest TNF odds, representing the biggest spread on the NFL Week 11 slate, while the Over/Under sits at 43.5 total points.
All NFL odds referenced for these TNF Week 11 predictions are current as of Wednesday, Nov. 12, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
TNF Implied Score & Team Totals
Patriots 28, Jets 15.5
These TNF implied team totals suggest that the Patriots will exceed their season scoring average of 26.5 points per game, while the Jets will fall short of theirs (21.7).
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Thursday Night Football Prediction
TNF Score Prediction: Patriots 27, Jets 10
I’m backing the Patriots to win big at home on Thursday Night Football.
New England boasts the best rush defense in the NFL, allowing 79.2 yards per game on the ground. That mark is 10 yards less than the next closest team, the Houston Texans, who allow 90.3 rushing yards per contest.
That ability to slow down the run spells severe problems for a Jets offense that relies on the legs of running back Breece Hall and quarterback Justin Fields to move the ball. New York ranks fourth in the league in rushing yards per game (141.8), but is 32nd in passing yards (143.8) by a large margin.
If forced to throw early and often, the Jets have no chance of fighting their way back into this contest, especially with No. 1 wideout Garrett Wilson (knee) sidelined once again.
The Patriots have a few injury issues of their own, with running back Rhamondre Stevenson (toe), wideout Kayshon Boutte (hamstring), and tight end Austin Hooper (concussion) all out. However, Drake Maye (19 TD passes, 5 INTs) has spread the ball out this season and should make do with the weapons he has available.
Thursday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these Thursday Night Football bet tips and trends in mind before making your Jets vs Patriots best bets.
- The Patriots are 7-3 against the spread this season, while the Jets are 5-4.
- Overs are 6-4 in New England’s games and 6-3 in New York’s games.
- The Patriots have won 16 of the last 18 meetings between these teams.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets
TNF Over/Under Pick: Jets @ Patriots Under 43.5 Points (-112)
We’re getting to the point of the season when Thursday Night Football becomes a slop-fest.
Last week’s divisional contest between the Raiders and Broncos featured 17 total points, while the previous matchup between Baltimore and Miami totaled 34.
I don’t see how the Jets move the ball consistently against this New England defense, and New York’s rush-heavy attack tends to keep the clock moving.
The only way this wager misses is if the Patriots run up the score, and I don’t see them feeling the need to do so on a short week.
Give me the Under as my NFL pick of the day for Thursday Night Football.
TNF Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -12.5 (-110) vs Jets
Last week, I took the points with the Raiders in a divisional matchup, and it worked out, so part of me wants to do the same with the Jets here.
However, New York was fortunate to win last week, as it scored two touchdowns on special teams to compensate for its 169 total yards of offense.
Maye and the Patriots also should be able to air it out against a Jets defense that traded corner Sauce Gardner and will now be without his long-term replacement, rookie Azareye’h Thomas (concussion).
Thursday Night Football Prop Bet
TNF Prop: Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+140)
For my Thursday Night Football prop bet, I’m backing Patriots tight end Hunter Henry to find the end zone.
Henry has the second-most catches on the Patriots offense (30) and also ranks second on the team in receiving touchdowns (four). Three of those scores came in the season’s opening month, meaning the 30-year-old has been in a bit of a scoring drought lately, catching one touchdown in six games.
Thursday’s matchup against the Jets feels like a good time to break out of that slump, as New York has allowed seven receiving touchdowns to opposition tight ends this season.
Thursday Night Football Parlay
Best TNF Same-Game Parlay (+244)
- Patriots -5.5 (-317)
- Drake Maye: 2+ TD Passes (-182)
- Hunter Henry: Anytime Touchdown (+140)
My Week 11 TNF parlay is highly correlated, giving it a great chance to hit.
I’ll start by backing the Patriots to win by at least six points, which they’ve achieved four times during their seven-game winning streak and five times this season. This adjusted spread gives us some extra wiggle room if New York plays better than expected or covers via a late backdoor score.
I’ll also add Drake Maye to throw for at least two touchdowns. The 23-year-old quarterback has cashed this prop in eight of 10 games this season, including each of his previous five outings.
Lastly, I’ll take one of those to go to Henry, who is due to find the end zone after a quiet run of games.
