Week 15 of the NFL season opens with an NFC South rivalry game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) and the Atlanta Falcons (4-9).
The Buccaneers are in the midst of a late-season spiral, losing five of their last seven games, allowing the Panthers to tie them atop the division.
Meanwhile, the season is all but over for the Falcons, although they have won their last two trips to Raymond James Stadium, giving them some hope for Thursday’s game.
Below, I’ll take a look at the latest Falcons vs Buccaneers odds and make my TNF predictions for Week 15.
Updated TNF Odds Comparison
Despite their recent swoon, the Bucs are 4.5-point home favorites on Thursday with a moneyline of -230.
Atlanta’s moneyline is set at +190, while the over/under for the game is 44.5 points.
All NFL odds referenced for these TNF Week 15 predictions are current as of Tuesday, Dec. 9, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
TNF Implied Score & Team Totals
Buccaneers 24.5, Falcons 20
Oddsmakers must be sensing a bounce-back game for the Tampa offense in this game, as the Bucs have only scored more than 23 points once in their last seven games.
Ironically, the Falcons have scored at least 24 points in four of their last four games but could be stifled on the road by Tampa’s defense.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Thursday Night Football Prediction
TNF Score Prediction: Buccaneers 16, Falcons 13
Even though both teams are below average defensively, this game could be rather ugly offensively. The short week is already tough on offenses more than defenses, and neither team’s offense deserves the benefit of the doubt right now.
The Buccaneers have failed to score more than 20 points in three consecutive games, with Baker Mayfield completing fewer than 50% of his passes in two of those games. Mayfield has also thrown four interceptions in his last four games, showcasing his recent struggles.
Things haven’t been much better for Atlanta with Kirk Cousins stepping in for the injured Michael Penix Jr. Cousins completed just 15 of his 30 passes with two interceptions against Seattle last week, so a quick fix on a short week doesn’t seem to be in the cards, leading to a poor offensive showing by both teams.
Thursday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these Thursday Night Football bet tips and trends in mind before making your Falcons vs Buccaneers best bets.
- The Buccaneers are 1-4 against the spread as a home favorite and have five straight losses ATS overall.
- The Falcons are 3-0 against the spread as road underdogs, including straight-up wins over the Vikings and Saints.
- The Buccaneers have hit the over in five of their six home games.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets
TNF Over/Under Pick: Falcons @ Buccaneers Under 44.5 Points (-105)
Thursday night games tend to be lower scoring because of the lack of rest and preparation for each team’s offense. That trend should play out this week, given the poor state each offense is in at the moment.
The favored Bucs have scored exactly 20 points in back-to-back games while playing two of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Falcons are also coming off one of their worst offensive performances of the season, and getting things on track on the road and with just three days of rest seems unlikely.
Give me the Under as my NFL pick of the day for Thursday Night Football.
TNF Pick Against the Spread: Falcons +4.5 (-115) @ Buccaneers
It’s not easy to back the Falcons coming off a 37-9 loss to the Seahawks, especially when that loss followed a defeat to the lowly Jets.
But there is even less reason to back the Buccaneers, who are 1-4 in their last five games and 0-5 against the spread during that stretch.
After last week’s loss, the Bucs are just 3-3 at home, with just one of those wins coming by more than three points.
With Baker Mayfield showing no signs of coming out of his slump, it’s best to lean toward Atlanta and the points.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bet
TNF Prop: Baker Mayfield 20+ Rushing Yards (+133)
Amidst his recent struggles as a passer, Mayfield has become a more willing runner.
He has amassed over 25 rushing yards in three of his last four games, and he nearly did it against the Rams as well, rushing for 19 yards before leaving with an injury.
That part of his game is working for him, so there’s no reason for him to stop using his legs.
The Falcons happen to give up the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, giving this bet great value, especially with plus-money odds.
Thursday Night Football Parlay
Best TNF Same-Game Parlay (+400)
- Under 44.5 Total Points (-105)
- Baker Mayfield: Under 217.5 Passing Yards (-111)
- Kirk Cousins: Over 0.5 Interceptions (-130)
It’s best to put together a same-game parlay under the assumption that both offenses will struggle on the short week.
Mayfield has surpassed 200 passing yards just once in his last six games, and in a low-scoring game, the Bucs can stay committed to the run rather than lean on their struggling quarterback.
Meanwhile, Cousins has thrown three interceptions over his last three games, and with the Tampa defense amassing 12 picks on the season, he’s likely to throw another one on Thursday night.
Combine these three outcomes for your TNF Week 15 parlay.
