Thursday Night Football features an AFC North divisional clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns in Week 12.
The Steelers (8-2) are coming off a huge win over the Ravens, while the Browns (2-8) just got blown out by the Saints.
On this page, we’ll dive into the Steelers vs Browns matchup, including best bets and predictions for this Week 12 game.
Frank Ammirante 2024 TNF Betting Record: 21-17 (+7.62 units)
Steelers vs Browns TNF Odds Comparison
The Steelers are short road favorites even though they have a much better record, likely because we saw the Browns upset the Ravens at home earlier in the season.
All NFL odds referenced below are courtesy as of DraftKings Sportsbook, and current as of Wednesday, Nov. 20.
TNF Implied Score & Team Totals
Steelers 20.5, Browns 16.5
We’ve got a projected low-scoring game here because the Steelers have an elite defense.
It’s also worth noting that the forecast calls for rainy and chilly weather for this matchup.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Thursday Night Football Prediction
TNF Score Prediction: Steelers 21, Browns 13
The Steelers defense has been terrific this season, ranking 6th in Pass EPA and 8th in Rush EPA.
We just saw this group limit an elite Ravens offense to only 16 points.
Now you might say this is an ideal letdown spot on a short week vs a division rival, but it looks like the Browns have pretty much checked out on the season.
This is a team that just got blown out by the Saints 35-14 following a bye week. That comes after a 27-10 loss to the Chargers prior to the bye.
We saw how Jameis Winston struggled vs a good defense — 3 INT and six sacks vs the Chargers — I’m expecting more of the same vs the Steelers.
Add in the fact that we’ve got inclement weather, and you can see why it’s a spot that favors the better defense.
Thursday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these bet tips and trends in mind before making your Steelers vs Browns bets.
- The Steelers’ defense ranks 6th in overall EPA.
- The Browns’ defense has allowed 86 points in their last three games.
- Rainy weather conditions are expected.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets
TNF Over/Under Pick: Steelers @ Browns Under 37 Points (-112)
While this is an extremely low bar at 37 points, I’m willing to ride with the Under in what looks like your classic ugly Thursday nighter.
This is a bet on the Steelers defense, which just slowed down one of the best defenses in the NFL.
We also just saw Cleveland put up only 14 points against a vulnerable Saints defense.
There’s a good chance that Pittsburgh completely shuts them down.
Bet on the Under in our NFL play of the day.
TNF Pick Against the Spread: Steelers -3.5 (-110) at Browns
I’m riding with the road favorite in this divisional game because the Browns look like they’re just playing out the year following two blowout losses.
The Steelers are 4-0 since Russell Wilson became starting quarterback, including impressive wins over the Commanders and Ravens, two playoff teams.
Look for Pittsburgh to have success on the ground vs a Browns team that got gashed by Taysom Hill and J.K. Dobbins in their last two games.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bet
TNF Prop Bet: Jaylen Warren Over 55.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-125)
Check out Jaylen Warren’s recent game log:
- 68 total yards
- 95 total yards
- 59 total yards
- 57 total yards
With rainy weather, we could see more check-downs from Russell Wilson and a run-heavy gameplan.
The Browns just gave up a combined 205 rushing yards to Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara.
The game before that, J.K. Dobbins put up 105 total yards, including 85 rushing yards at 6.1 YPC.
While Najee Harris will get more touches, Warren should still see enough action to eclipse this number.
Thursday Night Football Parlay
TNF SGP (+106)
- Steelers ML (-198)
- Under 43.5 (-259)
I’m going to use the Thursday Night Football parlay as an insurance play on my spread and total wagers.
Since we’re getting past the key number of three with Steelers -3.5, I’ll take the moneyline in case Pittsburgh wins by a field goal.
I moved the total to a favorable number of 43.5, giving me a chance to still win if it’s higher scoring than usual in something like a 23-20 final score.
Parlaying these two picks still gives me a reasonable (+106) price.
