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Titans vs Texans Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Dec 29, 2023

The Texans are fighting for their playoff lives against the eliminated Titans. Houston sprung the upset in Week 15 despite starting Case Keenum, and they should have C.J. Stroud back for the rematch.

Furthermore, the Texans are at home in the rematch. A few sides and totals in this AFC South matchup are among the most appealing NFL Week 17 predictions.

The Titans had an impressive comeback victory against the Dolphins in Week 14. So, they shouldn’t be dismissed. Nevertheless, the Texans are justifiably favored.

Titans vs Texans Odds

NFL odds used for this Tennessee vs Houston preview were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of Dec. 28 and 4:15 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Texans (-250) • Titans (+205)
  • Spread: Texans -5.5 (-110) • Titans +5.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 43.5 (-110) • Under 43.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Texans 24.5, Titans 19

Titans vs Texans Predictions

Score Pick: Texans 23, Titans 17

The Titans and Texans should get their starting quarterbacks back this week. Will Levis and Stroud were full practice participants on Thursday. Nico Collins and Will Anderson were also notable inclusions on the injury report, with the former progressing to full participation and the latter continuing to sit out practices.

The Texans should crack 20 points at home, a feat they’ve accomplished in all eight home contests this year. Houston’s projected score is only a few points higher than the 19 they scored in Tennessee, with Keenum as the starting quarterback.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Titans have allowed 21.4 points per game this season, with a median of 23. However, they’ve coughed up 23.9 points per game and a median of 23 on the road this year.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s offense is also unimpressive. They’ve averaged only 19.1 points per game, with a median of 16.5 in Levis’s starts. They mustered only 16 points in the overtime loss against the Texans in Week 15.

Titans vs Texans Best Bets & Props

Titans Under 19.5 (-115)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

The Titans scored fewer than 20 points in five of Levis’s eight starts, including when they scored only 16 against the Texans on December 17.

Tennessee’s scoring average (19.1 points per game) and median (16.5) have been lower than their team total for this game. As a result, the Titans Under 19.5 points is the NFL bet of the day.

Under 43.5 (-115)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

These teams combined for only 35 points in an overtime slugfest recently, albeit without Stroud. Still, the Texans have scored 22 points or fewer in Stroud’s five most recent starts. The absence of Tank Dell is suboptimal for Houston’s scoring potential.

Additionally, the betting info is stellar for wagering on the Under. According to Covers, eight of Stroud’s starts have gone Under, and four of Levis’s eight starts went Under for the Titans. Thus, Stroud’s and Levis’s games have collectively gone Under 12 times in 21 chances.

Texans -5.5 (-110)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

According to FTN Fantasy’s defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric, the Texans are notably superior to the Titans. The former is 15th, 13th, and 21st in total, offense, and defense DVOA this season compared to 26th, 25th, and 20th for the latter.

And, again, the Texans beat the Titans on the road without Stroud only two weeks ago. Houston has the edge at quarterback and on offense, and being Tennessee’s equal on defense should allow the Texans to cover the spread.

The Texans are just 6-7 against the spread (ATS) in Stroud’s 13 starts. However, the Titans are only 3-5 ATS in Levis’s starts.

Titans vs Texans Same Game Parlay

Titans vs Texans SGP (+345)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

  • Texans (-238)
  • Under 44 (-108)
  • Titans Under 18.5 (+108)
  • Texans Over 20.5 (-230)

Under 44 and Tennessee Under 18.5 points are carryover legs for the same-game parlay (SGP) from the suggested best bets and props. Houston’s moneyline allows some wiggle room for them to win but not cover the game’s spread.

Houston’s Over (20.5 points) doesn’t correlate with the game going Under. However, it correlates with Houston winning if the Titans go Under 18.5. So, while it’s not the cleanest bet, it’s a worthwhile inclusion to bump the betting odds to +345.

Finally, the Texans have scored more at home than on the road. Houston has gone Over 20.5 points in eight games at home this season.

Author

Josh Shepardson

Josh is a fantasy gamer of roughly 20 years and a fantasy pundit for more than 10 years. He's experienced in numerous season-long baseball and football league types and a daily fantasy sports grinder, too. Additionally, Josh is a recreational gambler who has a soft spot for futures and prop bets. He studied and completed his Bachelor's degree in Sport Management at the State University of New York at Cortland, and he remains in Central New York, residing in Auburn.

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