You’ll notice a distinct focus on quarterbacks in my Week 5 highlighted game and player prop picks. We feature the greatest passer of all time while also looking at one of the league’s most pleasantly surprising passers. There are also situations to take advantage of against inexperienced and struggling QBs. and we include a projected rebound outing from an erratic veteran.
When consulting our Week 5 NFL props, you will also note that we are focused on the New England running backs and aim to attack a pair of defenses in an enduring AFC rivalry. The Bengals and Jaguars also provide some of our favorite plays.
We got off to a rough start this season, trying to be too daring, which has resulted in a 15-35 record overall while being down 24.5 units. But the turnaround started in Week 4, when we were 5-1 on game props and were up 7.5 units.
A more focused, measured approach overall is now the aim in an effort to get back on the winning path.
Scott Engel 2022 NFL props betting: 15-35 (-24.5 units)
Before reading Scott’s picks, toggle with the widget below for our full list of NFL Week 5 player props:
NFL Player Props Week 5
NFL Week 5 odds used for prop bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise noted) and current as of Friday, Oct. 7.
James Robinson: Anytime TD Scorer (+100) vs Texans
WAGER: 2 Units
Robinson has impressed early on, making a quicker impact than expected in his return from an Achilles injury.
He has been a prime drive finisher for the improving Jaguars offense, as Robinson has three rushing TDs and a receiving score. The Texans have allowed an AFC-high five rushing TDs and one receiving score to RBs.
The Jaguars should not have much difficulty rolling up the points while putting Robinson into a few goal-line situations, making this a smash play as my top NFL bet in this report.
If you want to be bold, take Robinson to score twice (+600).
Tyler Lockett: 6+ receptions (-105) vs Saints
WAGER: 1.5 Units
DK Metcalf is going to be tangling with Marshon Lattimore for much of the day, which means Geno Smith is going to be targeting Lockett frequently.
Smith has been protected well by an offensive line that features two rookie tackles. He has made sound decisions and is very poised in the pocket, and will find Lockett often when Metcalf is engaging in a marquee WR/CB matchup.
Lockett has caught six-plus passes in each of his past three games. He is a featured chain-mover for Smith. Lockett is operating as a dependable possession receiver who can make timely catches for his new QB partner.
Corey Davis: 4+ Receptions (+140) vs Dolphins
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Jets did add Garrett Wilson and still have Elijah Moore, but Zach Wilson is comfortable working with Davis, who had five receptions in Wilson’s season debut last week. Davis had four-plus receptions in six of nine games last season and should be a key target for Wilson as the Jets move the ball effectively against the league’s second-worst pass defense.
Joe Burrow: Over 24.5 Passing Attempts (-110) vs Ravens
WAGER: 3 Units
This wager is a slam dunk, as we should see the scoreboard light up frequently in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level again, and the Ravens have the worst pass defense in the league.
Burrow will have to trade offensive punches with Jackson and he will surely soar past the projected number of attempts.
Rhamondre Stevenson: Anytime TD Scorer (+140) vs Lions
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Patriots are going to rely heavily on their running backs against the Lions. Not only do the Patriots want to control the clock and keep the Lions’ offense off the field, but this is a terrific matchup for any running back.
Detroit has allowed an NFL-high eight rushing touchdowns to RBs.
Damien Harris is an easy play as an Anytime Scorer at -105, but Stevenson should get into the scoring act, too against the highly vulnerable Lions defense. He has carried 26 times in the past two games and rushed for a score against Baltimore in Week 3.
Carson Wentz: 2+ TD Passes (+150) vs Titans
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Wentz had one TD pass in his last two games against Dallas and Philadelphia, but now gets an easier draw. He did have seven TD passes in his first two games of the season, so we can aim to cash in on Wentz’s projected TD totals when the matchup is right.
The Titans have allowed 10 TD passes, which is tied for the most in the league after four weeks. Wentz is without rookie Jahan Dotson, but Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel are quality playmaking threats and will help him hit on this wager.
Gabriel Davis: Anytime TD Scorer (+130) vs Steelers
WAGER: 1.5 Units
An ankle injury slowed Davis down over the past two games, and he caught one pass for 13 yards in Week 4 against the Ravens. But all indications are that he should be in better form this week, and Josh Allen will surely want to get Davis back involved in the flow of the offense.
The Steelers are coming off matchups with the Patriots, Browns, and Jets and still have allowed seven TD passes this year. Davis scored four TDs in a playoff game last season and will resume getting on a path to a breakout year as a major and regular scoring threat.
NFL Prop Bets Week 5
Dolphins vs Jets: Both Teams To Score 20+ Points (+135)
WAGER: 2 Units
Some may not expect a higher-scoring affair when the quarterback matchup of Zach Wilson vs Teddy Bridgewater is thought of as the primary factor. But both teams have potent playmaking options on offense, and the defenses have proven to be very exploitable so far this season.
The Jets allow 25.3 points per game, which ranks 27th in the NFL. Bridgewater is savvy and experienced enough to do the required work against the New York secondary. Miami ranks 28th in total defense, and Wilson has a promising supporting cast that will help him coast past the projected total in this wager.
Steelers vs Bills: BUF To Win 1Q By 7+ (+115)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Watch for Buffalo to get ahead quickly in Kenny Pickett’s first NFL start, which comes on the road against the league’s best defense. The Pittsburgh defense, which ranks 24th in the league, is going to spend a lot of time on the field, starting in the first quarter. The Bills will jump out to a fast lead.
The Bills also have the best offense in the AFC, so this is going to look like an immediate mismatch. Pickett’s play was uneven in relief last week, and it is going to be more difficult for him to get rolling in a very tough road environment.
Better times are ahead for the Steelers rookie, but this will be a tough afternoon for him from the beginning.
Lions vs Patriots: NE 1st To Score And Lose (+450)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Detroit defense was absolutely shredded by Seattle last week, but the Lions do get something of a reprieve in Week 5 against the Patriots. New England isn’t going to get involved in a shootout, as evidenced by the fact that it averages 18.5 points per game and is dealing with quarterback issues.
- Check out the latest NFL Week 5 Odds for more on the upcoming slate of games.
The Patriots do have a good duo of running backs to lean on, and the Lions’ run defense ranks 30th in the NFL. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson can either punch a score in early or will lead the offense to the first score with a field goal.
Ultimately, though, Jared Goff will lead the Lions to enough scores to outlast the Patriots as Detroit notches its second win of the season.
Seahawks vs Saints: SEA Over 20.5 Total Points (+105)
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Seattle scored 48 points last week vs the Lions, which is their second-highest scoring total since the 2012 season. The Saints’ defense is not quite as easy to score on, as evidenced by New Orleans allowing 24 points per game, which ranks 21st in the NFL.
Of course, any team presents more of a defensive challenge than the Lions, but the Seahawks are exceeding offensive expectations behind Geno Smith.
Seattle averages 23.8 points per game, with the weekly average obviously being inflated by its Week 4 outburst. Still, Smith is getting good protection and making sound decisions while passing the ball with terrific accuracy. His 77.3 percent completion rate over the first four games is an NFL record.
Marshon Lattimore is going to potentially limit the output of DK Metcalf, but Smith has shown he can operate the offense effectively enough by distributing the ball to other targets when needed. Seattle’s offense may not explode again this week, but it will be effective enough to get past this projected point total in NFL betting.
Falcons vs Buccaneers: TB Over 3.5 Total TDs (+100)
WAGER: 2 Units
After passing for one TD in each of the first three games and being held under 20 points, Tom Brady was frustrated, as he was dealing with key offensive injuries and absences around him. Last week, the Tampa Bay offense was fortified with the return of some key guys, and Brady passed for 385 yards and three TDs, but the Buccaneers still lost to the Chiefs.
An enraged Brady is going to make sure Tampa Bay halts a two-game losing skid in an emphatic fashion. Atlanta’s defense ranks 25th overall and against the pass on defense, and the unit will get trampled as Brady and his playmakers roll to a one-sided victory.
Marcus Mariota is not going to not put up much of a fight against the Buccaneers’ defense, and the Falcons’ three-and-outs will quickly lead to a multitude of Tampa Bay highlights.
49ers vs Panthers: SF To Win 1H By 13+ Points (+370)
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Right now, San Francisco has the best defense in the NFC statistically and by the eyeball test. The unit’s draw against Baker Mayfield and the league’s worst offense may be the mismatch of the week. Heck, we are also tempted to take the 49ers to win the first half with a shutout at +550.
The 49ers’ offense is no juggernaut behind Jimmy Garoppolo, but he can do enough to move out to a comfortable lead at halftime, and a big defensive play that leads to a TD or sets up an easy offensive score is possible. The Carolina defense is another unit that will spend a lot of time on the field this week.
The Niners scored two TDs in the first half on Monday vs the Rams while allowing only two field goals, so rolling out the projected lead for this wager should prove to be easy.
