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NFL Prop Bets Week 4 | Player & Game Props

Posted: Sep 30, 2022Last updated: Oct 6, 2022

Our Week 4 featured game and player prop picks are tied to some interesting quarterback storylines. There will be a showdown between two top NFL MVP contenders. To make it more enjoyable to watch the fireworks, we are recommending a very bold play on how the game will be decided.

We are also expecting rebound weeks from two of the league’s most accomplished passers. Two of the league’s worst quarterbacks so far in 2022 factor into our other NFL props.

Week 4 NFL Prop Bets

Note: NFL Week 4 odds used for prop bets are current as of Friday, Sept. 30.

Broncos vs Raiders: DEN, Over 1.5 Total TDs In 1st Half (+185) at DraftKings

WAGER: 2 Units

Denver fans and most NFL analysts did not expect the Russell Wilson era to get off to such a slow offensive start, as the Broncos have averaged 14.3 points per game after three weeks, the second-lowest figure in the NFL. Wilson has tossed just two TD passes so far this season, and he could not muster any at all against the 49ers in Week 3

The Raiders will be the elixir for what ails Wilson and the Denver passing game in Week 4.  Las Vegas allows 25.7 points per game, which ranks 24th in the NFL. The pass defense allows 267 yards per game, which is 26th.

Look for the Broncos to get out of the gate quickly on offense in an effort to shed the doldrums.

Seahawks vs Lions: DET, Over 3.5 Total TDs (+135) at DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 2 Units

The Lions should move the ball effectively this week, even without D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Seattle has the worst run defense in the NFC, having allowed 157 rushing yards per game. Detroit will be able to run well with Jamaal Williams, setting up Jared Goff for easy movement of the sticks.

The Seahawks have a lot of trouble getting off the field on third downs, as they rank 29th in opposing third down conversion percentage. Detroit will be able to exhibit a balanced attack and coast towards the end zone multiple times.

The Lions’ defense, which allows 408 yards per game, will also force the offense to compensate for what it surrenders.

Vikings vs Saints: MIN, 1st To Score/Moneyline (+155) at DraftKings

WAGER: 1 Unit

Jameis Winston is playing badly and he has been trying to work through recent back issues. Minnesota’s defense ranks 30th in the league so far this season, so the Vikings will want to get off to a fast start on offense.

Getting down early will put pressure on Winston to keep pace right away and that should lead to more sacks and turnovers, even in what appears to be a good matchup.

The Saints are allowing 139.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks 26th in the NFL. Minnesota will be able to control the clock, help out the defense, and ultimately, score enough to force Winston into a key mistake or two that will give the Vikings the victory.

Bills vs Ravens: Overtime (+1200) at DraftKings

WAGER: 1 Unit

This is going to be the most fun game of the week, and both defenses are going to be worn out by the end of regulation. The quarterback matchup is not going to disappoint, and we are going to need an extra session to produce a winner.

Baltimore has the worst pass defense in the NFL. Buffalo’s secondary has been ravaged by injuries and Lamar Jackson has recaptured his MVP form, so he will be able to resoundingly answer back when Josh Allen guides his team to the end zone.

Jackson leads the NFL in TD passes with 10, and Allen is second with nine, so this highlighted Week 4 clash is going to be full of traded punches on the scoreboard until overtime determines a valiant victor.

Cardinals vs Panthers: 1st Quarter, Lowest Scoring Quarter (+205) at DraftKings

WAGER: 1.5 Units

The Cardinals have been the league’s slowest-starting team this year. They are the only ballclub to not have scored any first-quarter points at all so far this season.

Meanwhile, Carolina has scored 2.3 first-quarter points per game so far, which ranks 23rd in the NFL after three games, according to teamrankings.com.

Carolina has been terrible on offense under Baker Mayfield, as the unit ranks 30th in the NFL after three weeks. So even if Arizona can get on the board in the first quarter, which seems to be not easily manageable, the Panthers won’t be too capable of answering back.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers: TB, Over 1.5 Total TDs In 1st Half (+170) at DraftKings

WAGER: 2 Units

You can bet that Tom Brady has been angry all week, yelling at the television and his laptop while watching game film from Week 3, when Tampa Bay was held to 12 points in a loss to Green Bay. The Buccaneers have been dealing with the absences of key personnel on offense, and Brady will aim to get off to a much better start in Week 4.

Brady does get Mike Evans back, and he will want to get rolling with him again quickly. He has another marquee matchup with another top QB this week, and Brady will need to keep up with Patrick Mahomes by making sure the Buccaneers score an ample amount of points in the first half.

This game may not be quite as offensively explosive as when these passers had their best weaponry last season, but we should see a healthy-enough first half in terms of scoring as Brady gets his offense back into a respectable rhythm.



Week 4 NFL Player Props

Alec Pierce: Anytime TD Scorer (+215) vs Titans at DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1.5 Units

We have been endorsing this rookie since the preseason, and he will start to make his mark against Tennessee this week. The Titans have allowed six receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, tied for the most in the NFL.

Alec Pierce finally started to show signs of in-season progress with 61 receiving yards last week, and he will make up for a drop in the end zone in the season opener.

We also recommend Pierce at Over 30.5 receiving yards (+110) as an easy route to cashing in. He will firmly claim the No. 2 WR role for the Colts over the next two to three games.

Austin Ekeler: 1st TD Scorer (+550) vs Texans at DraftKings

WAGER: 1 Unit

After scoring 20 times from scrimmage last year, Austin Ekeler actually does not have a single TD so far this season. That trend simply can’t continue any longer for the most versatile running back in the AFC. Houston’s 32nd-ranked defense will let the Chargers get near the end zone early, and you can bet Ekeler’s teammates and coaches know he has not scored yet in 2022.

Marcus Mariota: Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+135) vs Browns at DraftKings

WAGER: 2 Units

Marcus Mariota has three passing TDs in three games, but he is equipped with ample weaponry and faces a Browns team that allowed Joe Flacco to pass for four scores in Week 2. Cleveland may get ahead by running the ball very effectively, which will force Mariota to play from behind and try to keep his team in the game.

The Atlanta defense, which will finish worse than its current No. 22 ranking, can force Mariota into passing frequently enough to ensure he hits on this prop for NFL betting.

Mark Andrews: Over 5.5 Receptions (+105) vs Bills at DraftKings

WAGER: 3 Units

This is a super slam dunk. Mark Andrews has easily soared over this number in the past two games, and he has 24 targets during that span. We definitely expect to see a high-scoring game in the marquee showdown of the week.

Buffalo’s secondary has been dealing with significant injuries, and while Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level again, he will dish it often to his top pass-catcher in any matchup.

Damien Harris: Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts (+100) vs Packers at DraftKings

WAGER: 2 Units

Harris has 26 attempts in his last two games. New England must rely heavily on its RBs this week due to its QB situation while aiming for control of the clock as much as possible. The Packers can still be susceptible to the running game and that has to be the crux of the Patriots’ game plan.

Green Bay allowed Chicago, which has its own passing game issues, to rush for 180 yards in Week 2, so New England will try to use both of its top RBs, Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, to operate as the engine of its conservative approach.

George Pickens: Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220) vs Jets at DraftKings

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Steelers need to keep getting the ball to their exciting rookie, who already looks like Pittsburgh’s best downfield playmaking threat. His 36-yard one-handed reception last week may prove to be the ultimate highlight play from a wide receiver this season. The Jets have also allowed six TD receptions to wide receivers after three weeks.

Jamaal Williams: 2 Rushing TDs & Lions To Win (+500) vs Seahawks at DraftKings

WAGER: 1.5 Units

Jamaal Williams has already rushed for two TDs in a game twice this season, and he is ticketed for a heavy workload again after totaling 20 rushing attempts vs Minnesota in Week 3. Seattle has the worst rushing defense in the NFC, and the Seahawks have allowed two rushing scores in each of its past two games.

This could be a high-scoring affair, so the two rushing TDs are again attainable for Williams.

The Lions should prevail at home against a Seahawks team still adjusting to moving on from Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner while also losing Jamal Adams to a season-ending quadriceps injury.

Find Top NFL Props

Check out the best player prop bets this week with our props comparison tool. Click on a game below to see all of its prop bets.

Author

Scott Engel

Scott Engel is a Web Content Creator at The Game Day. Previously he was at SportsLine.com and The Athletic. His work is also featured at RotoBaller and on Seahawks.com. Scott is a host on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. He is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association's Hall of Fame. Scott is a four-time FSWA award winner and 10-time finalist. He was an Associate Editor and featured writer at ESPN.com. and his career began at CBS SportsLine, where he was a Senior Writer and Managing Editor. Scott was the Managing Director at RotoExperts.

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