So far this season, I am off to a decent start, with a 13-10 overall record after the first two weeks. I still cannot get past the New York Jets, narrowly missing an 11-20 Total Points Band by one point in Week 2, finishing with 10 points.
I should have known better than to issue a tip based on a Jets offense that actually looks worse than last season’s version. Yet I still see some wagering opportunities involving bad teams, featuring a few picks from the Denver Broncos-Chicago Bears matchup.
Week 4 NFL Prop Bets
NFL Week 4 odds used for prop bets are current as of Thursday, Sept. 28.
Dolphins vs Bills: Both Score 25+ (+150)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
These are the two highest-scoring teams in the NFL, with the Miami Dolphins averaging a ridiculous 43.3 points per game after their 70-point Madden-like historic outburst against the Denver Broncos. The Buffalo Bills are in expected territory at 30.3 points per game.
The Dolphins’ offense is so impressive because even though they look predictable, opposing defenses simply cannot stop them. These teams both scored 29-plus points in their last meeting.
Lock in Miami and Buffalo to surpass the projected point totals with your NFL bet of the day.
Eagles 1st To Score (-130)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.5 Units
The Washington Commanders are coming off a blowout loss to the Bills, which could be another one-sided affair. The Philadelphia Eagles will get on the board quickly, and then it becomes a matter of how much they win by, not if a Philadelphia victory will happen.
This game will follow the projected script from the outset, making it one of my favorite NFL props for Week 4.
Broncos 21-30 Total Points Band (+150)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Denver is desperate for a victory and will be determined to make up for its most notorious embarrassment since Super Bowl 48. The Bears’ defense has allowed 27-plus points in every game this season.
Chicago badly needs a win, too, so this game can be a rather high-scoring battle between two 0-3 teams. The Denver offense has some weaponry in the passing game, but I don’t think it is quite potent enough to confidently wager on more than 30 points.
Steelers 1st Sack Recorded (-120)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.5 Units
The Pittsburgh Steelers lead the NFL with 13 sacks, and 10 have been registered in the last two games. T.J. Watt already has six sacks in three games.
- Read up on more of our favorite NFL Week 4 Bets.
C.J. Stroud has been sacked 11 times in his first three NFL games. If Watt doesn’t get to Stroud early, he will still go down quickly because of the attention paid to the Pittsburgh superstar.
The Houston Texans only have four sacks. Only three teams have totaled less.
49ers To Win Both Halves (-135)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 Units
The San Francisco 49ers will quickly stomp out any hopes of a second consecutive Arizona Cardinals upset. Dallas’ big stumble sets up a decisive win for a San Francisco team that won’t be suddenly stunned.
The Cardinals have demonstrated much fight and vigor so far this season but will get a clear reminder of their place on the NFL ladder this week.
Seahawks Last To Score (-115)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The New York Giants are coming off a flat loss to the 49ers and need to pull out a win before traveling to Miami and Buffalo for their next two matchups. New York could be headed for a 1-5 start if it does not beat the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night
The Giants are a wounded and hungry opponent and will keep this game close. But the Seahawks’ offense will pull through when it counts, possibly on a Jason Myers field goal to win the game.
Based on the outlook issued on this game, you can work in more wagers from Seahawks-Giants by consulting the latest Monday Night Football odds.
Week 4 NFL Player Props
James Cook: Over 78.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) vs Dolphins
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The second-year RB has registered 110-plus scrimmage yards in his last two games. Cook is second among NFL RBs with 334 scrimmage yards.
Miami has allowed 432 scrimmage yards to RBs so far this season, and Cook should be very busy as a dual threat in the must-see game of Week 4.
Mike Evans: Under 59.5 Receiving Yards (-130) vs Saints
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Evans has come out on the losing end in many of his high-profile battles with Marshon Lattimore. In two of three games so far this season, he has not totaled more than 66 receiving yards, so leaning to the Under here seems very sensible.
Evans has not cracked the 65-yard mark in his last six games against the Saints, and he totaled 61 and 59 yards against them in 2022. Tom Brady was not the best version of himself last season, but I still have less confidence in Baker Mayfield getting the ball to Evans enough this week.
Calvin Ridley: Anytime TD (+140) vs Falcons
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Fantasy football players are well aware of some interesting “revenge game” narratives this week. Ridley is the headliner among all players facing their former teams in Week 4.
Some analysts I respect may not buy into the revenge angle. Still, it is certainly a real motivational factor for a player, so I have no reservations about recommending this prop wager.
Russell Wilson: Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-105) vs Bears
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.5 Units
The Broncos may be winless, but Wilson is actually not performing as poorly as he did in his first season with Denver, and the matchup is exploitable. He is featured on our Week 4 list of fantasy football sleepers.
The Bears rank 30th in passing defense after three weeks. Wilson is coming off consecutive 300-yard performances, a feat he last accomplished during the 2020 season.
Roschon Johnson: Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-130) vs Broncos
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 Units
The rookie has surpassed the projected yardage mark in his past two games on just 12 total carries. Expect a larger workload this week and an easy path to the pay window on this wager.
Chicago needs to establish more of a ground game to ease some pressure on Justin Fields, and Denver obviously has the NFL’s worst rushing defense after Miami tore it up last week. Even if the Broncos do perform more respectably on defense this week, this is a very friendly prop option.
Find Top NFL Props
Check out the best player prop bets this week with our props comparison tool. Click on a game below to see all of its prop bets.
