I got back on track with a positive result in the NFL Divisional Round, where I ended up winning 1.74 units. Let’s try to keep it rolling in the Conference Championship.
Read on for my best, longshot, and same-game parlays for the Divisional Round. Check out my X account, @FAmmiranteTFJ, to see my full betting card.
Let’s start a hot streak with my NFL Conference Championship parlays.
Best NFL Conference Championship Parlay
Frank Ammirante 2024 Betting Record: 334-400 (+21.36 units)
All NFL gameday odds are current as of Monday, Jan. 22, at noon ET from the indicated sportsbook.
Conference Championship Top Parlay (+221)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
- Ravens Over 23.5 Points (-118)
- 49er Over 27.5 Points (-135)
The Conference Championship top parlay starts off with the Ravens to go Over 23.5 points. Baltimore has consistently poured on points at home when their starters are in the lineup.
Just check out their recent game log at M&T Bank Stadium:
- 34 points vs Texans
- 56 points vs Dolphins
- 37 points vs Rams
- 34 points vs Bengals
- 31 points vs Browns
- 37 points vs Seahawks
- 38 points vs Lions
While the Chiefs are good on defense, we’re getting a reasonable bar at 24 or more points, especially when you consider the Ravens’ track record at home this year.
I’ll finish it off by going with the 49ers Over 27.5 points because this is an exploitable matchup vs a vulnerable Lions defense.
Detroit currently ranks 25th in Pass EPA on defense, which is bad news against the most efficient offense in the NFL.
Look for Brock Purdy to find Brandon Aiyuk early and often in this one, resulting in 28+ points for the 49ers.
Target these two plays for our NFL bet of the day.
Longshot NFL Conference Championship Parlay
Conference Championship Longshot Parlay (+450)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.2 Units
- Gus Edwards Anytime TD (+150)
- David Montgomery Anytime TD (+120)
The longshot parlay features two running backs who have prominent roles in the red zone.
I’ll start off with Gus Edwards, who has 13 rushing touchdowns this season. Gus Bus did not find pay dirt in the Divisional Round.
This was only the ninth time all year that Edwards failed to find the end zone.
The Chiefs are more vulnerable on the ground, ranking 28th in Rush EPA, so we could see Edwards get more touches in this one, especially in the red zone.
I’ll finish it off with David Montgomery, who put up 13 touchdowns in only 14 games this season.
Monty failed to score a touchdown against the Bucs, which was only the fourth time that happened this year.
In fact, the Lions randomly decided to give a goal-line carry to Craig Reynolds in that game, so there’s a good chance that Monty would have scored there.
When Detroit gets inside the 20-yard-line, they love to run the ball. Look for Montgomery to score a touchdown in this one.
NFL Conference Championship Same Game Parlay
Chiefs vs Ravens Same Game Parlay (+758)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.1 Units
- Lamar Jackson 250+ Passing Yards (+265)
- Rashod Bateman 50+ Receiving Yards (+320)
The Same Game Parlay focuses on the Ravens’ passing game.
We’ll start off with Rashod Bateman to get 50+ receiving yards. The oft-injured third-year wideout is starting to look healthy.
Bateman is coming off 72% route participation against the Texans, which resulted in 39 yards. Prior to that game, he ran routes on 88% of dropbacks vs the Dolphins, allowing him to put up 54 yards.
The Ravens tend to put up more passing production when the game is close, since they aren’t able to “take their foot off the gas" and establish the run.
In the six games where Baltimore is favored by 3.5 or fewer, Lamar Jackson has hit 250+ passing yards three times.
I’m projecting this Chiefs vs Ravens game to come down to the wire, which will force Jackson to air it out more than usual.
Look for Bateman to be one of the beneficiaries of this uptick in passing volume.
