The Chiefs (2-2) take on the Jaguars (3-1) in a projected close game on Week 5 Monday Night Football.
Kansas City is coming off an impressive win over the Ravens. This looked like an entirely different offense with Xavier Worthy back in the lineup. Jacksonville also looked great in an upset over the 49ers, led by Travis Etienne, who is having a resurgence this year.
On this page, we’ll dive into the Chiefs vs Jaguars matchups, including best bets and predictions for this Week 5 Monday Night Football game.
Updated MNF Odds Comparison
The Chiefs are short road favorites, but it’s past the key number of three, so the market is telling us who they view as the better team. While the Jaguars are off to a strong start to the Liam Coen era, quarterback Trevor Lawrence is still a work in progress, which is why the Chiefs have the edge here.
All NFL odds used for these Monday Night Football predictions are current as of Friday, Oct. 3, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
MNF Implied Scores & Team Totals
Chiefs 24.5, Jaguars 21
The Chiefs are projected to narrowly edge out the Jaguars in a pivotal win on the road.
Take a look at the best Monday Night Football odds for the 2025 NFL season.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Monday Night Football Predictions
MNF Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Jaguars 21
As mentioned earlier on this page, the Chiefs offense looked impressive with Worthy back in the fold. This gives them a deep threat that can open up room for the rest of their targets.
Worthy’s presence allowed Mahomes to pick apart the Ravens for 270 yards and four touchdowns in a blowout 37-20 victory.
Look for Kansas City to build on that performance with a win here.
We have to note that Lawrence has been underwhelming so far, ranking 21st in adjusted EPA per play. The edge at quarterback is why I’m predicting that the Chiefs get it done here.
Monday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these bet tips and trends in mind before making your Monday Night Football bets.
- Mahomes was dominant in Worthy’s return last week.
- The Chiefs running game is among the worst in the NFL.
- The Jaguars could easily be 4-0 if it weren’t for a blown lead vs the Bengals.
Monday Night Football Best Bets
MNF Over/Under Pick: Chiefs @ Jaguars Over 45.5 Points (-112)
After what I saw from the Chiefs offense last week, it’s hard for me to avoid the Over in this spot. All that we need is a 26-20 result for a victory here, which is firmly attainable.
We just saw Kansas City pour on 37 points with Worthy back, so I’m betting that they carry that momentum with another big game on offense.
Ride with the Over in our best NFL bet today.
MNF Pick Against the Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (-108) at Jaguars
While you never like to lay more than three points on a road team, since you can get burned by a field goal win, losing by the hook, I’m riding with the Chiefs here.
The Jaguars have wins against an underwhelming Texans offense, a banged-up Brock Purdy, and a below-average Panthers team this season.
The Chiefs will be their toughest test of the year, one that I believe they’ll fail due to their disadvantage at quarterback.
Mahomes is playing at an MVP level right now, while Lawrence is still adjusting to a new offense.
Monday Night Football Prop Bet
MNF Prop Bet: Isiah Pacheco Under 6.5 Receiving Yards (-107)
I’m fading Isiah Pacheco in this spot because the Chiefs have publicly stated how they want to get rookie Brashard Smith more involved in the offense this week.
Smith is a converted receiver, so his best trait is his pass-catching ability. If Smith is utilized more, it stands to reason that Pacheco will be barely used as a receiver out of the backfield.
So far this season, Pacheco has gone Under 6.5 receiving yards in two of four games. I’ll take my chances at another one here.
Monday Night Football Parlay
MNF SGP (+118):
- Chiefs ML (-185)
- Over 40.5 (-214)
I’m using my Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay as a hedge on my point spread and over/under wagers.
We’ll take the Chiefs moneyline to protect ourselves in case they win by three points or fewer. I like going with 40.5 as a more favorable number because it’s below the key number of 41, which means that we win in a 21-20 type of score line.
Parlay these two plays for +118 odds for Chiefs vs Jaguars.
