The Week 15 Monday Night Football game is a pivotal one for two teams in the AFC playoff race, as the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) host the Miami Dolphins (6-7).
A massive win over the Ravens last week gave the Steelers a lead atop the AFC North, although a playoff spot is far from secure.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins are riding a four-game winning streak that has kept them alive, even if it’ll still take a minor miracle for Miami to make the postseason.
Keep reading to see the latest Dolphins vs Steelers odds and my MNF best bets for Week 15.
Updated MNF Odds Comparison
The Steelers are three-point home favorites on Monday with a moneyline of -175, whereas Miami’s moneyline is set at +145.
The over/under for the game is 41.5 points.
All NFL odds used for these Monday Night Football predictions are current as of Thursday, Dec. 11, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
MNF Implied Scores & Team Totals
Steelers 22.25, Dolphins 19.25
Oddsmakers are clearly expecting a close and competitive game that could swing either way. Both teams average around 23 points per game and give up just over 20 points per game, so Monday’s game could easily be decided by a field goal.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Monday Night Football Predictions
MNF Score Prediction: Steelers 24, Dolphins 20
Most of Miami’s wins during the team’s late-season charge have come against some of the worst teams in the NFL.
That makes it hard to believe they can win a night game in Pittsburgh, especially given the weather this time of year and a quarterback who can’t fully be trusted.
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To be fair, the Steelers have been far from unbeatable at home this season. They were also fortunate to escape with a win in Baltimore after being out-gained by more than 100 yards. Pittsburgh could easily be entering this game on a three-game losing streak.
Ultimately, the Dolphins don’t have a good record in cold-weather games. Aaron Rodgers is also more trustworthy than Tua Tagovailoa, which should be enough to lift the Steelers to a win.
Monday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these Monday Night Football bet tips and trends in mind before making your Dolphins vs Steelers best bets.
- Tua Tagovailoa is 1-7 when the game-time temperature is 40 degrees or colder, with last week’s win over the Jets being his only victory in a cold-weather game.
- The Dolphins are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread in their last six games, including two wins as an underdog.
- Miami games have hit the over in four of their six road games.
Monday Night Football Best Bets
MNF Over/Under Pick: Dolphins @ Steelers: Over 41.5 Points (-110)
An over/under of 41.5 points would be more appropriate if both teams were solid defensively. However, both are middle of the pack at best, yielding more than 20 points per game.
While neither team has a high-powered offense, there are enough holes in both defenses to believe that each team can at least reach the 20-point plateau.
Take the Over as your NFL pick of the day.
MNF Pick Against the Spread: Steelers -3 (-122) vs Dolphins
At the moment, DraftKings is offering plus odds on Miami +3, which means they want you to back Miami.
But it’s hard to get around Miami’s lack of wins over quality opponents or Tagovailoa’s lack of success in cold weather.
At home, with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, the Steelers just about resemble a quality team, which is why it’s best to fade the Dolphins in this game.
Monday Night Football Prop Bet
MNF Prop Bet: De’Von Achane Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts (+100)
Under normal circumstances, the Dolphins would surely ride Achane as much as possible. However, he’s still feeling the effects of an injury to his ribs that knocked him out of the first half of last week’s game.
In his absence, Jaylen Wright gained 107 yards on 24 carries, so the Dolphins know they don’t need to force Achane to be their workhorse back if he’s not 100%, meaning it’ll be close to an even split between Achane and Wright.
Monday Night Football Parlay
Best MNF Same-Game Parlay (+370)
- Steelers ML (-175)
- Kenneth Gainwell: Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-116)
- Tua Tagovailoa: Over 0.5 Interceptions (-108)
It may not be pretty, but the Steelers should find a way to win a primetime game at home against a Miami team that has used a favorable schedule to win four in a row.
A veteran like Aaron Rodgers should know to be smart and safe with the ball, which means throwing short passes. That will make Gainwell a factor in the passing game once again, as he’s tallied at least 25 receiving yards in five of his last six games.
On the contrary, Tagovailoa, who is tied for the league lead with 14 interceptions, won’t be safe and conservative all game, throwing at least one interception against an opportunistic Pittsburgh defense that has 11 picks in 13 games this season.
Lock in these three plays for your best Monday Night Football parlay.
