The Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers have winning records, but the former’s 5-2 record stands up to scrutiny much better than latter’s 4-2 mark.
The Jaguars have a +27 point differential compared to the Steelers’ -24.
Yet the game’s spread is slight, and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin regularly gets the most out of his team.
Let’s dig into the numbers to make informed bets on this contest.
Jaguars vs Steelers Odds
NFL odds used for this Jacksonville vs Pittsburgh preview were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of October 25 at 2 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Jaguars (-150) • Steelers (+126)
- Spread: Jaguars -2.5 (-120) • Steelers +2.5 (+100)
- Total Points: Over 42 (-110) • Under 42 (-110)
- Implied Score: Jaguars 22.25, Steelers 19.75
Jaguars vs Steelers Predictions
Score Pick: Jaguars 24, Steelers 17
The advanced stats suggest this is a mismatch. According to FTN Fantasy, the Jaguars are eighth in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), 13th in offense DVOA, and fourth in defense DVOA.
Conversely, the Steelers are 17th in total DVOA, 26th in offense DVOA, and eighth in defense DVOA. Another prominent website’s measures aren’t any more flattering for the Steelers.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Jags are 12th in total PFF grade, 20th in offense, and 10th in defense versus 26th, 30th, and 19th, respectively, for the Steelers. The most stark advantage for Jacksonville is at the most critical position – quarterback.
Among qualified quarterbacks this season, Trevor Lawrence is 12th in quarterback rating (92.8) and tied for 13th in total quarterback rating (QBR) at 60.3. Meanwhile, Kenny Pickett is 25th in quarterback rating (81.3) and 30th in QBR (35.3).
Thus, the Jaguars have advantages in DVOA and PFF grades over the Steelers across the board and at football’s most important position.
The Steelers can make things ugly and are at home, so it’s reasonable to project the Jaguars to win by slightly fewer points than their median 10-point margin of victory this season.
Jaguars vs Steelers Best Bets & Props
Jaguars -2.5 (-120)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
The Jaguars have margins of victory of five, seven, 10, 16, and 17 points this year. In addition to their 5-2 record, Jacksonville is 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in 2023.
The Steelers have faced four opponents in the top 14 in total DVOA this year, splitting those matchups. However, their two victories against those opponents were against fellow AFC North teams.
In two games against top-14 teams in DVOA that weren’t in the AFC North, the Steelers were defeated by 23 and 24 points.
The Jaguars are superior to the Steelers, and the spread is too small. Therefore, this is the NFL bet of the day.
Jaguars Over 22.5 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
The Jaguars offense is an above-average unit. They’re averaging 24.7 points per game, with a median of 25 points this season.
Jacksonville’s offense has also traveled. It has scored 25, 31, and 31 points on the road this year, good for an average of 29 and a median of 31 points in road contests.
The Steelers allowed 30, 30, 10, and 17 points to the only above-average offenses, as measured by DVOA, they’ve faced this year. So, above-average offenses have a median of 23.5 points against the Steelers this season.
Steelers Under 20.5 (-125)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
Pittsburgh’s offense is lousy. The Steelers average only 17.2 points per game, with a median of 20 this year. Furthermore, in three games against top-10 defenses in DVOA this year, the Steelers have scored seven, 17, and 26 points for an average and median of 16.7 and 17 points, respectively.
The sledding will be tough for them against a stout defense. The Jaguars have allowed 20.9 points per game, with a median of 20. This is a matchup Pittsburgh’s offense is unlikely to get the better of.
Jaguars vs Steelers Same-Game Parlay
Jaguars vs Steelers SGP (+300)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
- Jaguars -2.5 (-115)
- Jaguars Over 22.5 (-108)
- Steelers Under 19.5 (+102)
The Jaguars have measurable advantages against the Steelers across the board. They’re 5-2 ATS this year, and all five of their victories this season were by more than 2.5 points.
Jacksonville’s scoring average (24.7 points per game) and median (25 points) are above their team total, and Pittsburgh has locked down above-average offenses this year.
The Steelers’ offense is measurably dreadful. They’re 26th in offense DVOA and ranked 30th in offense at PFF. Scoring 20 would be a chore for them against an average defense, and the Jaguars have a top-shelf unit.
The bets in the same-game parlay (SGP) correlate, which should always be a goal when constructing an SGP. If the Jaguars score over 22.5 points and the Steelers score fewer than 19.5 points, Jacksonville will cover the 2.5-point spread.
