The New York Giants have a 5-1 record and the Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-4. With the Giants doing better than the Jaguars, why are they three-point underdogs on the road?
The Giants have a great record, but they have an average scoring margin of only +2.3. Even with New York exceeding expectations, they should have a 3-3 record or potentially a 4-2 record based on how they have been playing.
This makes picking my New York vs Jacksonville best bets tricky, but I have an interesting angle below for Sunday’s game.
Giants vs Jaguars Odds
The betting markets view both teams as virtual equals in strength as evidenced by Jacksonville being a three-point favorite at home. The Jaguars get an extra two to three points for playing at home, and because of Trevor Lawrence’s noticeable improvement this season.
Based on the point total of 42 points, the betting markets don’t see an abnormally high or low number of points being scored on Sunday.
Giants vs Jaguars Implied Totals
Jaguars 22.5, Giants 19.5
The bookmakers believe that each team should score about three touchdowns, with the Jaguars winning by a field goal. Jacksonville should win, but New York will be in striking distance of winning throughout this Sunday’s game.
Giants vs Jaguars Pick of the Day
Read more on this Giants vs Jaguars bet below.
Giants vs Jaguars Prediction
Jaguars 28, Giants 20
I am a lifelong Giants fan, but money is money. The G-Men aren’t as bad as I expected them to be this season, but they should regress to the mean as a bottom-tier NFL team as more games are played.
Despite a stellar 5-1 record, they only have an average scoring margin of +2.3 points, which is only the 12th-best in the NFL. The Jaguars, despite their 2-4 record, have an average scoring margin of +4, which is the sixth-best mark in the league.
Jacksonville should have a winning record, while the Giants are a .500-level team at best. Based on what I have seen from a small sample size, the Giants have been lucky, while the Jags have been unlucky.
The way I see the game going is that last year’s No. 1 draft pick Trevor Lawrence should have a big game. Outside of a surprise loss against Houston, Lawrence has done a great job of limiting turnovers, and he has had games where he completes about 80% of his passes.
This weekend should be one of those games, which is why I am bullish on the Jaguars.
Giants vs Jaguars Bet Tips
Here are some Giants vs Jaguars betting trends to consider before placing your bets:
- The Jaguars opened at -2.5 and have only moved to -3.
- The Giants and Jaguars both have identical season records and records against the spread.
- Giants RB Saquon Barkley (shoulder) was limited at practice on Thursday.
- Giants WR Kadarius Toney is Questionable after missing practice with a hamstring injury on Thursday and is not expected to play.
- Giants WR Kenny Golladay (knee) is not expected to play.
- Jaguars WR Marvin Jones (hamstring) was limited at practice on Thursday.
Giants vs Jaguars Best Bets
Jaguars -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
If the Jaguars stay at -3, I recommend a bet on their spread. 16% of NFL games are decided by exactly three points, and I see the Jags winning by almost a touchdown.
The game will be close as both teams are evenly matched, but the Jaguars should win against an overperforming Giants team.
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Over 42 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
To a lesser extent than the Jaguars spread, I like more than 42 points to be scored this weekend between the Jaguars and the Giants. Trevor Lawrence should have a big game, and Saquon Barkley can pile on the points as well.
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