The Geno Smith magic may have worn off in Seattle after the Seahawks’ 27-7 defeat to the 49ers. It was a particularly ugly game and one that makes you wonder if the Week 2 Seahawks are the real Seahawks.
Meanwhile, Atlanta’s stock is rising weekly. The Falcons played excellent in the second half against the Rams, even if their late-game comeback fell short.
Which team has the edge in this battle?
Read on for our Atlanta vs Seattle prediction and betting tips.
Falcons vs Seahawks Odds
Vegas believes the Falcons are slightly better on a neutral field, but Seattle has one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL. Therefore, the Seahawks are slight favorites.
But this line is wrong. The wrong team is favored. The Falcons should be laying points here.
Sharp money has already pushed Atlanta to +2 at many books as of early Tuesday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this spread cross 0.
Falcons vs Seahawks Implied Totals
Seahawks 22, Falcons 20
Vegas is expecting a low-scoring, very tight game between two teams that are power-rated low by NFL standards. This tracks similarly to my power ratings, although I’m higher on the Falcons than the bookmakers are.
Falcons vs Seahawks Pick of the Day
Read more on this Falcons vs Seahawks bet below.
Falcons vs Seahawks Prediction
Falcons 28, Seahawks 14
The Falcons are playing great football relative to their expectations.
They’ve clearly found something on offense between Marcus Mariota and Cordarrelle Patterson, using them in different ways across the offense. Mariota is completing over 60% of their passes and has rushed for almost 100 yards, while Patterson has rushed for 161 yards and made three receptions over the past two games.
Plus, the Falcons have some weapons. Drake London is having a breakout rookie season. Kyle Pitts still hasn’t had a big game yet, but is due for a few more receptions given his target rate.
All-in-all, the Falcons rank 12th in Offensive DVOA. This offense can move the ball.
On the flip side, the Seahawks are in trouble. Seattle looked horrendous against San Francisco and lost their best defensive player, Jamal Adams, in the process.
Geno Smith had a massive regression game against San Francisco, posting the sixth-lowest EPA per play among Week 2 quarterbacks even if he completed 80% of his passes. He should struggle against Atlanta cornerbacks A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward.
The only reason that the Seahawks are favored in this game is because of their Week 1 win over Denver. If the Broncos didn’t have two goal-line fumbles, the Falcons are laying points here.
Atlanta should win this game convincingly.
Falcons vs Seahawks Bet Tips
Here are a few Falcons vs Seahawks betting trends to think about:
- The Falcons are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine road games.
- The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Seahawks.
- The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS after accumulating less than 250 yards in their previous game.
Falcons vs Seahawks Best Bets
Atlanta Falcons +2 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Road dogs with low totals are money. Road underdogs with totals of 42 or lower have covered at a 60% clip since 2018 (89-55-4). Road underdogs are 9-6 ATS in 2022 alone.
This is my favorite road underdog of the Week 3 slate.
The sharp money is on the Falcons, the trends are with the Falcons, and the Falcons have played like the better team. Seattle is currently 21st in Offensive DVOA and 25th in Defensive DVOA, so I’m happy to fade them here.
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Under 41.5 Total Points (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook
I feel much less confident about the total than the side, but I do lean towards the Under.
Both teams want to establish the run and grind down the clock. Seattle coach Pete Carroll will attack the run and limit quarterback Smith to shorter passes. Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith will use Mariota and Patterson as much as possible.
Plus, the sharp money is hitting the Under, and I’ll side with the smart bettors.
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