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Packers vs Falcons Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Sep 15, 2023

The Packers and Falcons are entering Week 2 on high notes. The Packers thoroughly dismantled their longtime rivals, the Bears, beating them 38-20. The Falcons also won a division game, defeating the Panthers 24-10.

The Packers were underdogs in their opener but are favorites on the road in this contest after an impressive showing. The Falcons won by double-digits as well and have the home-field advantage. However, they were less impressive in their Week 1 victory.

Let’s shift our focus from looking back at last week to looking ahead at the best betting angles for the Packers and Falcons contest in Week 2.

Packers vs Falcons Odds

NFL odds used for this Green Bay vs Atlanta preview were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of Sept. 13 at 12:15 am ET.

  • Moneyline: Packers (-125) • Falcons (+105)
  • Spread: Packers -1.5 (-110) • Falcons +1.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 40.5 (-110) • Under 40.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Packers 21, Falcons 19.5

Packers vs Falcons Predictions

Score Pick: Packers 20, Falcons 17

Last week began the Jordan Love era, and he was solid if unspectacular, completing 15 of 27 passes for 245 yards and three touchdowns. Love also took only one sack and didn’t turn the ball over.

Head coach Matt LaFleur also didn’t baby him when the game was close. The Packers dropped back to pass 20 times and rushed 16 times when the game was within one score against the Bears.

Love’s rock-solid showing was all the more impressive because Christian Watson was inactive with a hamstring injury. He could be back this week, and Aaron Jones’ minor hamstring issue appears unlikely to sideline him in Week 2.

The Falcons in Week 1 looked much like they did in 2022, featuring a run-heavy attack against the Panthers, attempting 25 rushes (this excludes Desmond Ridder’s kneel) and just 18 passes.

Despite the wide final margin, it was a one-score game until the Falcons punched in their final touchdown with 4:52 remaining in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately for the Falcons, Ridder didn’t show signs of improvement from last year’s performance.

Love appears to be further ahead in his development than Ridder, and Green Bay is a more well-rounded club with multiple avenues to victory. Conversely, the Falcons are in trouble if they fall behind and have to abandon their run-heavy approach.

Packers vs Falcons Best Bets & Props

Under 40.5 (-110)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

The Falcons have been Under machines with Arthur Smith as their head coach. Their games have gone Under the game’s total in 21 of 35 games with Smith at the helm.

LaFleur has coached only two games for the Packers without Aaron Rodgers as Green Bay’s starter. One of those games went Under, and the other went Over the game’s total. Furthermore, the Titans averaged just 19.4 points per game in 2018 when LaFleur was the team’s offensive coordinator.

Neither of these coaches are likely to light up the scoreboard, and again, Atlanta is likely to feature a run-heavy approach, making this our NFL bet of the day.

Packers -1.5 (-110)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units

The Falcons are 16-18-1 against the spread with Smith as the team’s head coach. Meanwhile, the Packers covered the spread last week, and the Love-led Packers covered in Week 9 in 2021, LaFleur’s only other game as a head coach without Rodgers.

Additionally, the cover in 2021 was against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Kansas City, when Love was still in the nascent stages of his development.

Packers Win by 1-6 Points (+310)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.25 Units

The Packers might still have some growing pains with their young offense. Last week was only a one-game sample, after all.

But Smith’s sample coaching the Falcons carries more weight for this pick. The Falcons have averaged 20.1 points per game and yielded 24.4 points per game during his tenure.

Packers vs Falcons Same Game Parlay

Packers vs Falcons SGP (+350)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.25 Units

  • Packers Over 16.5 (-245)
  • Under 40.5 (-110)
  • Packers -1.5 (-105)

The final two legs of the parlay were discussed above, leaving only the first to analyze. The bar is low to exceed 16.5 points for the Packers, and even Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota and Blaine Gabbert-led offenses in 2018 averaged over 16.5 points per game under LaFleur’s guidance.

Moreover, the Packers exploded for 38 points in Week 1. The Falcons have allowed more than 16.5 points in 30 of Smith’s 35 games as a head coach. Consider last week’s effort against rookie Bryce Young an outlier.

Author

Josh Shepardson

Josh is a fantasy gamer of roughly 20 years and a fantasy pundit for more than 10 years. He's experienced in numerous season-long baseball and football league types and a daily fantasy sports grinder, too. Additionally, Josh is a recreational gambler who has a soft spot for futures and prop bets. He studied and completed his Bachelor's degree in Sport Management at the State University of New York at Cortland, and he remains in Central New York, residing in Auburn.

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